Member Info for Hexam

"How is all else equal between these miners Hexam?"

It's not. I think you are misunderstanding what the phrase means.

"Some of the less genuine sorts on here suggest that a lower hodl somehow puts ARB at greater risk, which as a numbers guy I’m sure you laugh at too".

No, I agree with them. Less HODL means lower assets means more risk (especially when many of those coins are backing a loan as BITF have just found out) - all else being equal.

"So you believe that CINE has surpassed the average 2019 level this month?"

Yes - but as you say, no surprise. June is always a good month. In 2019 June was $1.15bn US BO but the average over the first six month as a whole was only $943m - so less than June 2022 so would expect June to yield more revenue especially as we know other revenues are doing better relatively than they were in 2019.

"That gives Regal a market share of about 28%."

That's a share of screens though not box office. This will be a lot lower since as a multiplex a lot of screens will be showing much smaller grossing films compared to smaller operators who may have a couple of screens and so only show blockbusters. The accounts show exactly what CINE receive from US ticket sales so can use these directly (assuming their share hasn't changed dramatically this year).

@shazabo

In 2019 US Box Office was $11.3bn and CINE US ticket sales were $1.86bn so around 16%
In 2021 US Box Office was $4.5bn and CINE US ticket sales were $627m so around 14%

So with US BO in June at $967m this suggests perhaps around $150m.

In 2021 US Ticket sales were about 35% of total revenue (was over 40% in 2019 but increase in concessions etc has reduced relative importance of just US ticket sales).

So maybe total revenue for June is $400m-$450m?

@mountainous - I agree with your logic and so agree that what you say is perfectly plausible.

Given though that they aren't shy to talk good news I'm surprised they just haven't told us. The argument that they want to downplay things because of the court case is I think far-fetched as the interims will lay bare the financial position anyway so Cineplex just have to wait for these before making any move ahead of the case.

I think it is more likely that things have just gone to the wire and that we will see an RNS soon.

But it's all speculation - we just don't know so little point worrying about it.

Limp - You made the statement that other miners "hodls will be exhausted just to keep the lights on".

I asked you why that didn't apply equally to ARB (given all the numbers/facts suggest otherwise - low HODL, losing money, debts backed by assets of reducing value, low efficiency) and you replied with nothing of substance and have now said the "current conditions are undoubtedly a big negative for everybody in this space." Agreed. So do you now agree that it does apply to ARB every bit as much as the rest. And if not, again the question, why not as would be delighted to know something that does puts ARB in a much better position than its peers.

In my view you clearly don’t or at least all you can see is anything positive. Anything negative or potentially negative seems completely hidden to you.

I am perfectly calm. I just have my eyes open.

AB - My issue isn’t with the future. Like you I am still confident that in time Helios will, or at least can, be a differentiator.

It’s going to be at least six months before they really feel that though and the start, production wise, hasn’t exactly been encouraging.

In the meantime they are in a precarious position at the moment based on the facts we do know and possibly things we don’t know too as they evaded a lot of questions at the Q&A.

I know you recognise this and are are not happy with the current mining numbers etc. You are pinning your hopes on the future but not ignoring the present. Fair enough. I am too, just a lot less optimistically than you.

But some others seem to have their heads completely stuck in the sand.

“Their hodls will be exhausted just to keep the lights on”

What makes you think ARB is any better position than the rest? The numbers you are so ready to dismiss as unimportant?

Do you have anything of any substance whatsoever to back that up?

It can’t be a bigger HODL than others. It can’t be that they are not exposed to sizeable debts that are backed by assets that have crashed in value. It can’t be because they are generating cash at the moment. It can’t be because they are more efficient.

So what on earth is it? Please enlighten us.

"I'm sure I could come up with plenty of stats where Argo wins out."

How can you be so sure without looking?

I'm not so confident. Rookie seems to have covered most of the main stats and on the costs side BITF had similar or lower costs per coin mined (whether all-in, direct only or on a cash basis) in Q1. So whatever stats you might find where ARB is currently better I'm struggling to see what they might be and, even if you do, how important they are.

Just because the current stats are better though (and some of the projected stats too that Rookie provided) doesn't mean BITF is a better investment than ARB. That depends on many other things as well, for example relative market cap as a starting point, execution of their respective strategies, immersion benefits for ARB and the success of the intel tie-in, activities beyond mining etc. etc.

A lot of this is a matter for judgement and I don't know BITF well enough to make that judgement but I certainly wouldn't make it myself without looking and that seems a worthwhile thing to do especially as the stats appear to compare so favourably for BITF at the moment.

Actually quite of few of us were saying they should sell some at the high levels last year but c'est la vie.

The question is not about whether BTC is going to zero (that's a different question). It's how long can miners survive at these prices and what happens if it falls further.

These are businesses. They don't have the luxury of just sitting it out for two or three years like they could if they were just holding BTC and nothing else. They have debts, they have running costs, they have (or had) growth plans and they have shareholders to satisfy (though usually they're at the end of the queue).

As you say: 'No one knows, where btc will be next month'. Nor next year for that matter. And therein lies the risk and at the current level of BTC those risks are that much higher.

"The big miners know this, that’s why the hodl"

BITF sold nearly half its HODL recently and ARB sold around 15% of theirs last month. Others are also reported as selling. It seems they're not HODLing very tightly.

It will be interesting to see in the June updates who sold what last month.

At these levels some miners won’t have ‘years’ - if it falls much further I doubt many will have.

I’m not sure what the logic is of small miners being more likely to go under than big ones. Could argue the bigger ones who have overextended themselves in the pursuit of growth are the most at risk.

As long as small miners can pay the electricity bill they should be ok as they probably have little else by way of outgo.

Also not sure the intel rigs will be any cheaper. Depends on how far into the contract ARB are.

“this btc drop is a blessing for ARB”

No, it’s not.

1) The interims are based on yesterday’s BTC price. The sharp fall in price since the end of the year means it is likely ARB will post a six month loss of over £50m

2) Difficulty is not yet decreasing to any meaningful extent - in fact latest estimate is that it will actually increase slightly at the next review. So no upside visible yet from this

3) ARB have significant loans backed by BTC (and value of mining rigs) - any reduction in the value of these assets puts pressure on liquidity. A big reduction means big pressure

4) Miners may indeed go under. See 3) above

In my view we need BTC to go up. Soon. By a lot. Please.

The closing price is always set by the closing auction, and so as signified by the UT price, so wouldn't necessarily expect it to match any preceding trades. Was surprised though that it was different by so much but then again I seem to remember that the volume on the auction was tiny.

Also baffled by the £200k+ trade but really can't get excited by a single trade (unless it's absolutely huge) as means nothing in the grand scheme of things whether it was a buy or a sell.

I get that shareholders shouldn’t expect to be spoon fed and that companies should focus on running the business rather than communicating every little thing - but CINE sure do take it to the other extreme which is very frustrating to put it mildly.

Not paying down the RCF is not a default as that’s just one option to deal with the covenant.

Not paying the dissenting shareholders on time is serious but wouldn’t mean immediate administration - would be a possible step towards it though.

I’m taking no news as good news but could be wrong and either way am surprised there has been no announcement. May just be a dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s timing thing though. So could be a day or so delayed?