Member Info for Hexam

Hi Wolf,

This should answer it. Basically DC was right.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/maintain-short-position-delisted-stock/

Are you thinking of 2020 as they did come out in September that year? The 2021 half year results though came out on August 12th.

Agree though that too much shouldn’t be read into it probably.

Pushing the results back makes absolutely no difference to what box office is included in their figures. The balance sheet will still be as at 30th June.

It may mean they can be more bullish in their commentary to take in performance over the rest of the summer but that’s it.

Neither do I believe they are pushing the date back to hide how well they are doing for negotiations on any deal as all Cineplex would have to is simply wait another month.

I’m hopeful they will be able to show a profit at half year and although any profit is likely to be small it will be a huge step forward - and quite an achievement given the dreadful first couple of months.

Actually BC I can take credit. I said on many occasions when prices were much higher that they should be selling some BTC as part of a mixed approach to funding growth (along with equity raises and debt). As did others. It is NOT about predicting an exact BTC as nobody knows that and anybody that suggests they do is not worth listening to. But it is about recognising that prices could go up considerably or down considerably so when BTC is close to ATHs (when the downside risk is higher) it makes sense to sell some - or at least have a decent hedging strategy...

Yes, I admit I made an error of judgement (not so much about ARB, more about miners generally) and am not confident about the future - hopeful would be a better word. Good/great things still very possible but there are huge risks if BTC stays like this for several months. Again, for all miners. If I was not underwater so much then I'd probably sell now (and indeed did sell some last week).

For the last time it is NOT about hindsight, please stop making out that it is. It is about managing risk which they didn't do and are now coming unstuck. Yes, not selling could have turned out to be the best strategy but it was an extreme strategy and hence very risky.

The one thing I have got right is that I have a well-diversified portfolio (can't offhand think of a sector I'm not invested in at the moment, apart from banks). So even though ARB is my biggest loser at the moment I'm not all in so can hopefully recover any losses elsewhere. I'd rather recover losses here though (including through trading) but am just realistic that this may not happen.

What's fine? The weather lately? Agree with that.

And I was told off for being juvenile just for calling people rampers?

The only assumption you need is that of selling at a higher price than they are being forced to sell now - which is pretty much any time in the last 18 months - which if they were being responsible and managing risk they would have done.

And forgive me for 'sweating' but I don't believe they are happy for one minute with the loan - if they are then they are complete idiots as they have boxed themselves into a corner, been forced to sell BTC with prices low and will have to sell a lot more soon if BTC doesn't improve. How can they be happy with that? If I genuinely thought they were then I would take all my money out now and just take the loss - but I don't think they are that stupid.

Of course they are putting a brave face on it, all companies do, but I'd rather trust the numbers. You carry on with your head in the sand but personally it's just not how I like to invest.

a) One example (literally countless others available if you don't like this one):

In the RNS they said in June they sold 637 BTC at $24,500 i.e. $15.6m

If they had sold previously at $49k then they could have got the same $15.6m then by selling half the coins. They could then have borrowed less for growth or bought some machines to generate extra BTC but let's suppose in this example they were just prudent and held extra cash.

Fast forward to now and they would been able to meet the obligations (for Galaxy and whatever else) without selling any further BTC and so have 318.5 extra BTC on the balance sheet.

b) Just words and they've given such liquidity assurances before and look where we are now. Forced selling of BTC to, among other things, pay down part of the Galaxy Loan as they did not have enough to meet the collateral.

a) Do I really I have to do the maths for you?
b) No, it hasn’t. If it has then please tell me how much headroom they have - even broadly

If that’s the case Stnz then good on them. Running their company like a business rather than a casino. Might take a closer look at them.

I apologise. I’ll go straight to the naughty step.

It would have made a huge difference. They would have more HODL now or lower outstanding loans or more likely both. And not small amounts either.

And if BTC falls much further they won’t have enough to repay the loans.

“Glad they kept the hodl to be fair because I can’t imagine they would’ve sat on a load of cash back then, “just in case”.“

Seriously - even with hindsight? They could have used the BTC to pay for growth rather than taking out loans (which have now come back to bite them).

All miners had a HODL policy when it would have been good risk management to sell some. Instead they went ‘all-in’ which as any gambler will tell you means you either win big or lose big.

It’s good they are adopting a more responsible and professional approach now even if it is after the horse has bolted and they’ve really been left with little other choice.

I think you calling what I say juvenile is very amusing. Thank you for putting a smile on my face.

It wasn’t hindsight. I said at the time they should sell some BTC and so did plenty of others. It was the rampers who were screaming HODL, HODL. Now those same people are ok with them selling now at much lower prices.

Praised if they don’t, praised if they do.

As to questions I would hope and expect they would respond to clear up points of understanding but they are much less forthcoming on many matters of substance (as witnessed in last Q&A and others before it).

“if you actually ask them they are pretty forthcoming with answers.“ - that’s a joke, right?

“Selling Hodl, man, they are damned if they do damned if they don’t as far as some are concerned“

No, they were damned for not selling last year when prices were high and when they had a choice and they are damned for getting themselves in a position where they are selling now at low prices because they don’t have a choice.

ESG - I say perhaps as I don’t know enough personally about how they compare but am not prepared to take their word for it. After all they keep saying they have the industry leading mining margin when they demonstrably have not and claim they are a Tier A miner despite being miles behind on coins mined per EH.

- 90% of Bitmain machines paid for - Great. Big Tick.
- 95% of Helios paid for - Great. Another Big Tick.
- Well positioned for Bear market conditions, quote “Balance sheet strong enough to withstand lower prices, and potentially take advantage of any increase in market share, and any downturn in the costs of machines”. Disagree. They will have to sell more BTC to reduce Galaxy Loan if BTC falls further and NYDIG loan is also under pressure due to big fall in machine value. In the meantime their monthly losses are higher than other miners I've looked at.
- quote re upcoming expenditure, “we don’t have a ton of huge costs coming up the vast majority of our Bitmain. machines and infrastructure is paid for. Intel costs coming up but flexibility available on that, we can lean in or out depending on market conditions.” - They have up to $70m still to spend depending on how much already outlaid on Intel machine. Sounds a lot to me. So looks like they will 'lean out' of this one.
- quote re opportunities surrounding distressed assets in the market, “I don’t think it’s a secret there are miners that have over committed to orders and have put down deposits but don’t have anywhere to put those machines or don’t have the capital to pay for those machines.” Agree - some are in a worse place.
- Debt 1) Btc backed Galaxy loan (more details of strategy/hedging at the half yearly) - actually in June update as had no choice but to sell BTC to reduce loan
2) Nydig infrastructure loan - good
3) Nydig machine loan (flexible) - Value of collateral reduced sharply
4) small mortgages on Canadian properties. - yep. insignificant
- Market leading in ESG. - Perhaps?
- Tier A miner. On what basis? Bottom or near bottom on efficiency
- Low power costs in Quebec and Texas - Margin reduced in June in part duet to higher electricity costs at Helios
- One of 4 company’s working with Intel. Epic building ARB bespoke miners incorporating the Intel chip. - Good but Unproven benefits as yet
- quote “We played it smart in 2021, we didn’t over commit.” - Beg to differ. This missed out completely on China situation
- Hashrate directed at TerraPool under constant review. Other Pools looked at as well. - Better hurry up as miles behind most other miners in terms of coins mined per EH

Overall grade: C minus (IMO)

FP - thanks, you saved me typing much the same thing.

It's like they're cheering on their football team, being all smug and shouting abuse at the opposing fans, despite being 8-0 down at half-time. All the other fans have to do to respond is shout back "Argo, Argo, what's the score?"

To make it even more laughable they then refuse to accept, even with the benefit of hindsight, that their strategy has been wrong. I disagree with the statement that 'it’s really rendered irrelevant if they’re right in the long term'. They would have still been much better off selling nearer the top and then buying back in now. But there seems an absolutely refusal to admit that. I'm sort of in that position myself having bought quite high then averaged down (though have reduced losses a bit through trading) but recognise I initially called it wrong. I've then tried to work out why and learn from it but some people just can't face their own mistakes, almost like children and then behaving like them too. And those people, unfortunately, will never learn.

No, we can’t.