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Agree Elvis - the high interest figure in October includes at least one significant adjustment and it could well be what you suggest.

Penta - the key thing is that the high figure shown in the October accounts is NOT a normal monthly interest figure for loans and borrowings. That should still be around $25m plus whatever the DIP financing has added and a possibly a bit extra for the recent increase in rates. $50m tops.

You’re welcome. It’s good to know that even I can get one investment right :)

...forgot to say, one additional and significant issue for ARB is that a lot of that prepayment amount was funded through loans from NYDIG. Clearly there is a big mismatch now between those loans and the value they got from the sale of the machines and the value of those they kept. So even though they may have cash for a while I'm not sure how solvent they really are and how much they may be relying on the goodwill of NYDIG (at least the Galaxy Loan is now cleared).

As to the particular issue of prepayments he is right that the way the accounts were presented made the liquidity position look a lot better than it was as it was indeed odd that they included them under current assets when the payments related to non-current assets.

As we now know (and as HC said) some of these prepayments have actually been converted back into cash but at much lower amounts due to the heavily discounted sales. The rest of the bitmain prepayment now sits on the balance sheet as a fixed asset so not really helping liquidity (especially as, again, any resale value is now a lot lower than book value). Of the prepayments £19.2m related to Intel/epic and we don't know what has happened to this and in particular whether they have been able to recover any of this as cash or will be able to do so in the future.

We won't know just how bad the picture is until we finally get the latest accounts but even then it may not tell the whole story as some of the events took place after quarter end - but what we do know, and what he is spot on about, is that the picture presented at half-year was very misleading due to the treatment of prepayments.

And me! To be fair HC was the inspiration.

Let’s just hope ARB can now ‘do a Cameroon’ and defy the odds (though their odds of survival are probably a bit longer than 15/2).

'Well done' :-)

Seriously though, even though I think they are quite attractive odds I wasn't recommending it as a wager to anyone! Your money, your choice.

Mind you, I'll gladly take the credit if they win ;-)

Yes, it's one of those bizarre phrases you often see on these boards. A 'well done' might be deserved if the bet comes in but can't see why it is appropriate at the time it is placed.

PS As Brazil are already through and Cameroon need the win then 15/2 for Cameroon doesn't seem a bad shout - after all look at Japan last night beating Spain under similar circumstances :-)

"Re the Q we had yesterday where it had $150m odd in the bank interest figures"

Elvis - I really don't know why this figure is so high. It is an accrued figure so shouldn't be affected by timing issues of when it is actually paid and both the interest in the first 6 months and the cash flow projections suggest it should only be around $25m per month. Even if DIP finance attracted 20% interest (as the judge suggested once) and was included it would only double this figure roughly.

It is not interest allocated to lease liabilities either (as this is not enough and is broken out separately anyway).

So I'm stumped but not too concerned as I assume it is just some odd one-off adjustment for something - but will be a bit more concerned if it doesn't drop a lot next month...

CINE UK is in the Chapter11. Seems you’ve forgotten.

Love pies. Just like cake more.

“the next news will be the Court have given the go ahead for rest of that $1.94B”

They already have.

Haha - no, not the charisma for YouTube. I’d just bore people to death with numbers - like I do already on here! As to twitter I’m not even on it - or any social media come to that (apart from here if that counts).

I must admit I admire the Live Stream guy’s enthusiasm and also his bottle to do that kind of thing. I just wish he had more financial experience, especially in valuing companies, as some of the stuff he says is just crazy. A for effort though - and for waffling :)

…not if it’s anything like the previous ones which at times have bordered on the bizarre.

PI - what HC said but also the Q3 numbers will lay bare just how bad the liquidity situation is (we can guess but don’t know exactly) and they may want to delay this as long as possible.

There could be good news reasons as well though (e.g. close to securing funding) but on balance, in my view, it’s not a good sign.

Either way, one thing I’m really hoping is that there is clarity on is the Intel deal. I’m assuming it’s dead in the water but at what cost? Or maybe it’s still alive in some form because of contractual reasons and this may be putting extra pressure on liquidity.

Can’t be long now and we should get a few days warning before their release.

This suggests Nov 14th (so 45 days, not working days) but clearly for whatever reason it doesn't seem to apply or else we would have at least heard about an extension. Worryingly late nonetheless though.

https://www.skadden.com/-/media/files/publications/2021/12/2022-filing-deadlines/2022_sec_filing_deadlines_and_financial_statement_staleness_deadlines.pdf

Except that the end of quarter is Sep 30th...

But bullsbear they have already told us they still expect to be losing money in April. If they are doing better than expected then great but unless Avatar does something absolutely amazing in December (or bombs) I don't think BO over the next six months is going to make much difference either way as to what happens to shareholders as part of the reorganised structure. Will be a different story in what follows as the quicker the BO recovers the better for CINE and its shareholders (assuming we still have a decent slice of the cake by then).

Hi Allkap - you don't have to be profitable to come out of Ch 11, just be solvent and convince everybody that needs to be convinced that you'll stay that way. As long as the lenders etc. see a way back to profitability soon (or the company is sold or whatever in the meantime) then that should be enough - so long as they can reach agreement on everything else!

Elvis - I'm pretty sure the $785m that was approved at the start of the process is in there (as that approved months ago). That leaves the $1bn of refinancing and the $150m additional money for working capital both recently signed off. If those are not included then the loans (and cash) will go up $150m next month (the $1bn just replaces existing loans). Profits for November won't be affected except for additional interest.

The accounts are monthly management accounts rather than cash flow statements but it says that they are not necessarily fully in line with IFRS.

"currently the market thinks the probability of this share being worthless is about 90%."

If that was the case the current sp would be a lot less than 5p.

There is a chance the shares will be worthless, there's also a chance it will absolutely rocket too. I think there is more likelihood though that it will be something in between i.e. CINE survives and comes out of Chapter 11 but shareholders suffer significantly in some way in the process (but not total wipeout) - and the sp simply reflects this range of possibilities. It's not a binary bet.

My hope is simply that if we do suffer significantly it's still not so bad that we come out of it at less than 5p a share.