Member Info for Hexam

Tbf Chae on mining costs alone (i.e. power basically) the cost per BTC was about $9k per BTC which is pretty good. Just a shame about the other $40k or so of costs on top of that.

Quant - yes mining profit was $1.19m in December but what is your estimate of overall profit (or rather loss) for the month and of of net cash outflow during the month?

Apologies, I know this is an ARB board but CLSK has had repeated questions asked about it today so to help clear things up:

As of last reporting date (30/9/22):-

Total Assets - $452m including $20m cash and $11m HODL
Total Liabilities - $48m including $21m loans and borrowings
Net Surplus = $404m

Total cost per coin mined (in quarter to 30/9) ~ $45k
Total CASH cost per coin mined (in quarter to 30/9) ~ $20k

Coins mined in December = 464

Looking pretty healthy I'd say and much more likely than many others to survive the Crypto winter but please DYOR..

"Nah, some of this deramping eclipses the worst of the ramping, truly moronic."

Still sure about that HC? :-)

Oh please Suthy - your predictions are just as ridiculous as those of the nutty rampers but in the other direction. So stupid they are easy to dismiss.

"I said 35 million short term debt."

You didn't but if you did then you got that wrong too I'm afraid. It's actually zero (barring any trade creditors) in case anybody is worried that they have to pay anything back in the next 12 months.

Poor - my posts are there for all to see if they can be bothered and I'm sure they are capable of making their own minds up rather than rely on your lies. If they come to the same conclusion as you then fair enough but I'd welcome any evidence of anything I've got materially wrong as I'd rather learn from my mistakes than hide from them.

Likewise they can make up their own minds about your credibility. I know I have.

I don't think the RNS is quite as bad as all that. Yes, they confirmed cash is only $20m but this is only what should have been expected as the deal only freed up $21m and they told us they were running on fumes before that. Debt is confirmed at $79m - but again as expected.

The number of coins mined was disappointing but there was a clear reason for the drop.

The big positive though was the sharp drop in direct mining costs (i.e. power basically) which fell from the roughly $13k per BTC mined of the last few months to under $9k in December. Part of that may simply be because they were forced (or chose) to turn off at times when the costs were higher but it is encouraging nonetheless as this drop comes ahead of any PPA agreement.

So personally I think the drop today is an overaction to the confirmation of the net debt position whereas the fundamentals actually do show signs of some improvement.

ARB is still in a very precarious position though and I remain pessimistic of its long term future given its weak balance sheet, high overall costs and lack of growth potential. At least there are some signs of life though.

"You had the debt at 90 million, but that’s ok? Lol"

Yet another lie Poor. Here's what my response was to your suggestion that the debt was only $35m:

"Hexam

Posted in: ARB

Posts: 3,358

Price: 3.75

No Opinion

RE: Chaebol28 Dec 2022 08:06
PI - Your quote just says it pays all indebtedness to NYDIG and North Mill. It has not repaid the notes (£33m) or the mortgages (£3m). So total debt with the new loan is around £65m - less than what the assets they have left are worth."

And what do they say the debt is? £65m. So I was spot on. See, it pays to do actual research and proper calculations rather than just pluck numbers out of the air to suit your ramping.

To be fair it was only one particular ramper saying $35m and people should know by now to avoid his estimates.

@0134 - I think you're into ifs and buts at any of these levels as it is probably not economic to keep mining at any of them. So then becomes a question of whether they just switch off machines or hibernate completely - though there may not be much difference between the two now that Galaxy own and run Helios. We don't know the hosting terms but if the fees can go to zero (which I very much doubt) if all machines are turned off then cash costs could reduce to less than $1.5m a month assuming overheads reduce to the sort of levels pre-Helios and interest on the Galaxy loan is not too penal. As they freed up over $20m of cash with the deal this means they could still last around a year perhaps?

BUT I can't imagine Galaxy would be too happy with that and surely there must be a minimum monthly fee in the hosting contract - and we still don't know if there are any outstanding cash commitments to intel/epic?

So short answer is it could still be around a year or so whatever the level of BTC is but probably somewhat less depending on the terms of the hosting arrangement in particular and any intel commitments.

Of course a very good PPA could mean it is still economical to mine at $12k and maybe lower and that might add a few months. It could also be longer if they have more cash than just what they recently freed up.

Bit waffly but into extreme scenarios with too many unknowns.

Suthy - yes the cash burn is horrendous but they have enough to last at least 6 months now and quite possibly a year. Please do some basic research or at least show your expert calculations that come out with your strangely precise prediction.

Just because PW called it 'transformational' you don't have to keep repeating it like a parrot.

The only way it was transformational was in turning what was once a swan of a company into an ugly duckling - as the only means of survival.

I think I won't. That doesn't mean I have confidence in ARB - I don't - but at least if you are going to continue this childish spat across boards with dnp at least learn some things about ARB first or just have your spat on the QBT board.

A fall in coins mined would indeed be disappointing given the drop in difficulty in December but mining numbers have rarely, if ever, had much impact on the sp (good or bad). It's any more detail on the comically labelled 'transformational' deal that could have some real impact (again good or bad). Personally I'd just settle for a monthly update at all given how late it is.

...or we could behave like adults and not. Too much to ask?

Patience - I would argue that the DIP lenders are the ones paying the bills of lawyers and advisors as they put up the additional funds - without those funds there was no money to do this. I take your point though - it should play in our favour that he (or rather the family) has got such a huge stake - unless of course there is a sneaky way they can get something out of this mess other than just by retaining a decent percentage of the business like the rest of us.

Agreed RI and that's the point ProInvestor was making. My own guesstimation is that unless we see over 97% dilution we will be better off than we are now as the 3%+ will apply to a much higher post-rescue mcap (it certainly won't be the £50m it is now). Of course we're not guaranteed to keep 3% or more of the business - that's the big question.

Moorscloud - yes I think a double digit SP is still feasible but, like then, it depends on that dilution percentage (and other things). I think we would need to keep at least 5% and probably closer to 10% for that to happen though (or if we see some serious FOMO ahead of any news). On the other hand we could be totally screwed if all (or virtually all) of the business ends up in the hands of lenders/new shareholders. Just a waiting game now.

"Where has there been any mention of share dilution?"

CINE themselves have repeatedly warned us.

It’s all in the machines/chips - it’s just up to the miners to make sure they run as efficiently and reliably as possible. My very last comment on ARB here!