Member Info for Hexam

Allkap - I don’t think one way is necessarily better than the other - it depends on the terms. The big obstacle is the debt which is now over $6bn so on the share purchase approach even if the buyer paid just 1p per share it would still be costing them more than $6bn as they would be taking on all the debt. Would anybody be willing to pay that much?

With the asset approach it is less clear in terms of what assets are purchased, what’s left behind and what happens to the debt - plus there is the tax asset of over $600m and how that fits in. It’s all guesswork at this stage I’m afraid and difficult guesswork at that.

This link might also help:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/asset-acquisition-strategy.asp

@SriniVaradhanN - There are two ways to buy a company:

1) Buy its shares - this is the way most of us are probably more familiar with. In this case a company buys another company for Xp per share usually at a premium to the current share price. In this case the whole company is taken over, including all the debts, and it is subject to the rules of the Takeover Code. This seems to me to have been ruled out by the RNS which says "any sale transaction for the Group as a whole would not include the sale of Cineworld itself and would therefore not be subject to the rules of the Takeover Code".

The other way is for a company to buy the assets of another company and this may or may not include all of the assets and liabilities. In this case though the buyer buys pays a cash amount for the assets rather buying the shares.

In the first option we would simply get whatever the share price is that the company is sold at. Think Morrisons, Stagecoach etc.

In the second option we would be left with whatever remains of CINE (including any cash paid) and that's the bit I'm unclear of given that CINE have said they are only considering a sale of all the assets.

As I said either could be good, bad or indifferent depending on terms but the above is just my understanding of what was a very confusing RNS!

If that's the case Sharebel then why has the TNT sp halved in just a few weeks? That dodgy RNS on funding you didn't understand or are you still blaming MM's? You spiked yourself on TNT (and other shares) so pardon me for not taking notice of any share advice from you :)

Ted - the whole lot IS up for sale, just not via a purchase of shares (at least according to the RNS). The alternative is a restructuring which has always been a possibility - in whatever shape or form that might take.

Whatever the route though the impact on existing shareholders is unclear and that could be good, bad or indifferent under any of them.

Timber? Surely more appropriate for TNT which you've been pumping since 270p but is now half that in just a few weeks?

"if some one buys this company they could be looking at quite a considerable share price rise"

I thought this option had been ruled out though by the last RNS i.e. the company shares won't be sold, only assets (for the whole company)? So it will be an asset sale (or a restructuring) not a share sale.

The hearings were automatically stayed (i.e. put on hold) because of CINE entering Chapter 11 (which stops all litigation in its tracks). Cineplex appealed against this but CINE in turn objected and there are dockets on both. Last I saw was that the court ruled against CP and so the case cannot continue until we exit Chapter 11.

CP are involved in the Chapter 11 as the biggest unsecured creditor so they will be fighting their corner but it's unclear just how much influence they have (probably not that much though) and so they may not be able to stop an outcome that makes their claim disappear altogether (e.g. setting up a new company may do this)?

An out of court settlement would have to be approved by lenders so there also looks little prospect of this either whilst CINE is in Chapter 11 (unless it's very generous to CINE and so attractive to the lenders).

That's my understanding anyway.

"I wonder if Hexam will ever post here again"

Why not? I'm loving it. I was transparent about what I was doing and why. You repeatedly ridiculed my approach but it's playing out even better than I could have dreamed of. There may be little long-term value left in this company but sentiment has taken over here big time so trading it to take advantage of the ups and downs is the only way to go for me and I've already got back a decent chunk of my long-term losses. Hopefully other LTHs are managing to ease their pain too.

This is the breakdown of sites from CINE - don’t know if it allows for any of the lease rejections. The 478 looks like it may be referring to an up to date US only number?

https://www.cineworldplc.com/en/our-cinemas

Really hope the worth of the tax losses doesn't get anywhere near $1bn as that would be grim for CINE's prospects of getting out of Chapter 11 (as it implies they'll run out of money again). They were about $500m at last half-year and maybe around $600-$700m or so now but hopefully they won't go much higher.

Btw I have no problems getting on the Kroll website at the moment.

Antlev - I didn't give any advice to Cruis except to suggest he did his own research before investing which I don't think could ever be described as 'bad' advice.

I did suggest though that as a long-term business it was screwed (the fundamentals in my view just don't stack up). But there are trading opportunities there given the nature of the business and the crowd attracted to such stock - and it should have enough cash to last at least 6 months. I did not expect such a pump to come so soon though but am grateful for it as I am trading it to offset my long-term loss and sold some today as part of that. A small step perhaps but I think there will be more opportunities to claw back more.

With CINE I think the trading opportunities are much less as everything hinges on Chapter 11 in my view and there won't be much movement until there is further news which could cause it to spike or (as it did yesterday) to dip. The longer term position with CINE I think is much brighter than with ARB, it's just unclear though how much existing shareholders will be allowed to be part of it.

Cruis - Feel a bit bad now perhaps putting you off ARB. I did say it had trading opportunities but didn’t expect one so big, so soon. Lots of excitement on the ARB board at the moment among the gamblers but in my view it’s still a business with a very bleak future longer term.

HC - Indeed, and I've just sold some of it on what seems a pretty big pump at the moment. Only made a small dent in my losses but nice to get something back!

"Hexam, that's fine if someone posts once. But if you're posting 10, 15, 20 times a day do you expect us to believe that person doesn't have some kind of financial incentive?"

I think that just about sums my point up. Thanks.

Believe me Cruis, I'm no fan of Poor. Just another chancing ramper in my view who gets abusive when challenged.

I see your fondness for the word 'cretin' MPeterson hasn't disappeared.

One of the things that gets me most about these boards is that some people believe everybody else posts with a motive to manipulate others into doing something - to get a cheaper buy-in, to pump it and make a quick exit or to enable them to close their short etc.

It seems to be beyond their imagination to think that some people just post their views in an objective way because they are interested in a stock or sector and simply want to share their research and views and to potentially learn from others' research and views - even though this is exactly what a forum like this should be for! It is certainly beyond their comprehension that a poster would want to post something that goes against what they actually want to happen.

So how's this for a novelty? Instead of simply attacking posters like HC, myself and others that have a bearish view on ARB come up with a rational and articulate bull case. Something more than just the price of BTC soaring which of course will help all miners - but is that actually all that you are relying on? I can see no prospect of ARB ever making sustainable profits with BTC below $30k (and probably more) but if anybody thinks I'm wrong and has got a logical and reasoned case for why it could do, and the numbers to back it up, then I would be more than happy to be proved wrong. That way instead of feeling this stock is just a trading opportunity now, I might actually believe in it as a long-term investment again. Anybody?

Cruis - tbf Poor said his breakeven on ARB was 16p. Also he did do very well on CINE by following his usual approach of going all-in on stocks when their sp is on the floor on the assumption they will bounce. Seems to be a popular approach given the kind of posts frequently seen on boards like CINE and ARB and they only need one decent bounce to get out. It's a gambler's approach though and eventually one isn't going to bounce and ARB may be that one for Poor. If not it will be the next one or the one after that or...

Cruis - So am I! I'd almost forgotten about that one but that's one I wasn't in until after it dropped and did take the gamble. Like CINE just a waiting game now.

Cruis - I wouldn't dare or presume to give anybody advice on what to do with their money. I just stick to sharing information and opinions on companies based on that information.

As to CINE you already know all about them and that everything hinges on what the Chapter 11 comes up and that is very hard to predict. In my view CINE is a viable long-term business temporarily in a hole that it will come out of but it's just very unclear what will happen to existing shareholders when they do.

ARB is different. It's solved it's immediate cash crisis by selling its prize asset at a thumping loss. Unlike CINE though it's hard to see how it can survive long-term unless Bitcoin goes up significantly (by more than double and pretty soon). In the meantime though there may be some good trading opportunities with I suspect the sp bouncing around more than CINE's will.

So to me it's a choice between a good long-term business but one that has huge short-term risk for shareholders versus a business with poor long-term prospects but that might have short-term volatility giving potentially good trading opportunities.

Tbh if I wasn't a LTH already and well underwater on both then I wouldn't go near either of them as a new investor (they are just gambles now - which of course attracts the gamblers as we've seen) but I'm stuck and am just hoping for a good outcome on the Chapter 11 for CINE whilst trying to trade myself out of trouble on ARB.

The only actual 'advice' I would give though is to DYOR on ARB before deciding and know what you're letting yourself in for and are not just jumping out of the frying pan into the fire. GL.