Member Info for Hexam

Agree with all your 7 points and there are probably a few more besides, I was just focusing on headline numbers for brevity if nothing else.

Much is being made about the positive FCF but this is artificial due to the £100m+ contribution made by inventory reductions and ignoring all the changes in working capital it was negative. If they can show sustainable, positive FCF then this will be a very big step.

Like you I think the future potentially looks very bright but I don't underestimate the challenges they are facing.

I don't think the shell company will keep the tax losses but not sure. The other creditors etc. simply lose their money as part of the proposal - I can't see how they can go after any remaining shell company.

"Nothing wrong with the business apart from a lack of Comms and a surfeit of shorters. Not to mention lying trolls on this board"

Surely those are not the only reasons for the steep and prolonged decline in SP? I would have thought the company now making losses and uncertainty over getting back to sustained and meaningful profitability are big factors.

I believe they will turn things around but I'm not blind to the weaker position they are now in and the challenges that they face.

I'm pretty sure that's not the case. If and when the proposal goes through then I think the companies are completely independent with no more obligations between newco (which will have the remaining debt) and oldco. So if oldco is a shell and if there is value in this (a big if mind) then it will presumably go to existing shareholders.

Pretty much as expected though with around $1bn ‘normal’ loss - but then made a lot worse by over $2bn of exceptional items - mainly impairments.

Can’t have been an easy decision but hope it works out for you whatever you decide to do next.

You’ve always leant more to the optimistic side (in contrast to me!) but with your feet also planted firmly on the ground so no ‘ramper’. Sad to see another decent LTH go although I think the endgame is close for all of us now - one way or another.

ATB

As usual you are just speculating and going off on tangents. Do you have any actual proof of wrongdoing?

There’s a big difference between knowing they would enter Chapter 11 (which is what you are suggesting) and thinking they might (which is what the going concern statements clearly imply - or worse).

If it’s the former then clearly they have done something wrong - if it is latter then in my view they haven’t. I don’t see any convincing evidence that they knew but if some can be found then it is obviously a game changer.

“when Cine “knowingly knew” they would enter C11”

If that was the case at the time of any going concern statement then I’d agree with you but what proof do you have to back this statement up?

CWWX - Agree with a lot of what you say and in particular anybody who bases their investments of what posters suggest they do with their money deserves little sympathy.

But a forum is a reasonable place to ask questions (else what’s it for?) so what I really object to is opinions stated as fact (BOO board is another prime example) or facts presented as fact but are actually wrong.

I suppose the best thing is to simply check for yourself anything anybody says on a BB if it’s something that important to you.

Elvis - As Wolf has already said the warnings that CINE have been giving have been longstanding and stark.

Not only in the going concern statements (which went far beyond normal wording) but they consistently said they had no hope of meeting the EBITDA related covenant on the RCF and instead they were trying to get another waiver or get enough cash to pay it off to avoid the test. They couldn’t guarantee either and became increasingly pessimistic.

I’m no lawyer but I can read. And so I presume can the judge.

CWWX - I am still invested though have sold most of my holding. I’ve left some in purely on the hope of some miracle outcome.

That’s one reason I still post.

The other is that there is so much factually incorrect nonsense posted, mainly by rampers but also de-rampers, that sometimes I can’t resist challenging it (as you also do on other boards).

As to Patience’s efforts I cannot support something I do not believe in. There is no case to answer in my view, the valuation of $3bn I think is fair and I have seen no evidence of fraud - just some over optimistic forecasts but most companies are guilty of that.

Fundamentally though there is no hope (unless an extravagant bid comes in) that shareholders will be in the money after all creditors above them are fully satisfied which many still don’t seem to get needs to happen for shareholders to get anything. I believe that sum is actually around $8bn.

It’s the hope that kills so whilst it may seem mean to challenge what Patience is putting forward is pretending that it’s all great and has every chance of success better?

I admire the effort that Patience is putting in just not his arguments. And tbh I lost all respect for him when he said shareholders ‘need to hold’. Telling others what they need to do is a step too far for me.

If you put something in quotes you are suggesting I said it - which of course I didn’t.

So rather than make up lies or being your usual childishly abusive self how about coming up with some constructive and convincing arguments to counter my points that will show me to be wrong.

That would shut me up :)

Poorinvester - the ‘expert’ in probability lol

Ah - patronising response, the last refuge of the ramper.

I can’t see how you have it ‘properly covered’ or why you have put ‘mistake’ in inverted commas. It is a mistake plain and simple but if you are suggesting it is deliberate then your ‘expert’ is in deep trouble as incompetence is one thing but presenting knowingly false information breaks every professional code of conduct there is. No wonder he/she wants to remain anonymous, though that may well get your valuation dismissed out of hand anyway which exactly the grounds on which lenders are trying to do just that.

Still, happy to learn something if this is all part of cunning plan that even Baldrick would be proud of.

I was talking in respect of net asset value as that is what the posts I was responding to described. Of course a forward looking valuation is going to be higher with CINE coming up with $3bn and the shareholder group coming up with over $12bn.

The shareholder group figure though has a palpable error in it - not a matter of opinion but a basic, obvious and significant mistake. Its projected cash flows made no allowance for future rents. Knocking these off at least halves the value but I have seen no correction in the submitted numbers so they seem to persisting with figures that are clearly wrong making it very easy for the lenders etc to discredit them.

As it is they failed to give any credentials for their valuation ‘expert’ so have given another open goal to the lenders who, predictably, are using this to try to get the valuation dismissed altogether.

I agree that more up to data would give a better starting point but I don’t think it would make a material difference to any sensible valuation as box office is simply not improving fast enough despite the odd good month (like April with Mario).

One of the dockets actually estimated the value of assets in a liquidation scenario - at $400-$600m. Well below the $6bn+ of liabilities so no surprise the lenders went down the D4E route despite the large amount of loans this means they would have to write off.

Nope.

Thank Mountainous and good to hear from you too as the board just seems to be full of crazies these days so nice to hear from somebody sensible.

As to the timing the first thing is that it is just a rumour so may not be true at all. Personally I’d be surprised if they did formally go into administration ahead of the meeting at the end of the month.

As I said I think these are just the necessary proceedings that need to run alongside the US ones and so would have thought they will happen around the same time at the end of June - if at all - but I’m guessing like everyone else.

I’ve sold most of my holding already but still retain some in the hope of a miracle though can’t see quite what form that would take other than a last minute and very unlikely mega-bid or if we are left with a shell that it might actually be worth something.

I certainly wouldn’t presume to tell you, or even suggest, what you should do with your holding as that should be your choice alone. I think those either urging people to sell up or saying everybody ‘needs to hold’ are equally disgraceful. Anyway if you decide to sell I hope you manage to get some decent return from whatever you decide to do with it next. If you decide to hold then I hope we get that miracle! Good luck either way.

Hi mountainous, I don’t think the DIP financing is an issue as the box office has been pretty strong recently and they don’t look like they are about to run out of cash. In fact thanks to Mario the cash reported at the end of April had increased to over $80m.

Instead I think these are just the ‘ancillary proceedings’ they keep mentioning and that are required in the UK alongside the Chapter 11 process.