Member Info for Hexam

Odd how you give positive positive posters a lot of latitude in how they express themselves but not others.

Anyway, are you sticking to your £5 in two years time? Must admit I'm regretting my 85p now and would say 60p is perhaps more realistic given the last year (unless a buyout happens etc.)

Sorry, got my years mixed up we were all expecting big returns within THREE years of making those predictions (except Pedro) and there is still nearly TWO years to go. So not looking quite so silly - just a bit.

"Am more than a little surprised by your comment"

Then I politely suggest you've misread it. I entirely agree that most investors take a three to five year view (any shorter then you are trading or gambling or both). But there is a world of difference between expecting to wait and 'knowing' you have to wait for that return (as West claimed he did). If I 'knew' I was going to have to wait several years I would invest elsewhere in the meantime and come back to that particular stock later.

Of course the actual point is you can't know anyway and it is that I am really challenging (not the acting seemingly opposite to that supposed knowledge).

As the prediction competition shows though we were all expecting big returns within two years of making those predictions (except Pedro) - some much bigger than others!

By the way West looks like your crystal ball was predicting a far quicker sp price increase than mine judging by your prediction competition last year. Mind you most of us look silly now but at least we're not as bad as some - there are some real corkers in there. Still, there's nearly a year to go so it could all yet change :-)

west6809

Posted in: BOO

Posts: 1,266

Price: 37.33

No Opinion

SP competition13 Aug 2023 22:35

Welcome aboard Stickyjoe. Good first post.

Would you care to join us in our friendly competition for guessing the sp on 22nd May 2026. Here are guesses from most of the regulars so far:

Gazillions - (Boohoo will be bought out by then)

Pedro61 - £0.18


Daytradenovice - £0.60 



Jongle - £0.63 


DC2007 - £0.71


Hexam - £0.85 


Peoplepower1 - £0.90

Wolfofwarks - £1.20

Gggg21 - £1.35


Me - £1.50 



Darkblue - £1.68

Downtime - £1.74

Buffaloben - £1.80

Okehurst1 - £2.00 



Joll- £2.10 


Offshore5000 - £2.25

Reardon95 - £2.46


Hopeful118 - £2.50 



Spk99 - £2.66



 
Smythsmoneybox - £2.95 



Moodyrich23 - £3.35



Therealelogo - £3.51



Pjf - £4.00





Southcoastbather - £4.35 


Trading4good - £5.00 



Level5 - £6.66 



Let me know yours if you wish to join and I’ll add you to the list :)

Exactly - I don't know. I'm not a trader either. I invest with the understanding that it MIGHT takes years to see a decent return but if I KNEW it would take years (as you claimed you did) then I would look elsewhere.

I wasn't the one claiming to know the future.

"For me I knew this would be years."

Then why did you invest? Surely it would have been better to invest elsewhere in the meantime if you were so sure any recovery would be so long in coming?

"Doesn't matter what's the Company say, I'm sure few guys here will be against and try to twist what's FG said. Wait and see, they will start soon."

How? This is good news pure and simple and should be recognised as such. The only twisting is coming from those who are claiming it to be even better news than it is by suggesting the rest of the money is more or less in the bag and 'should be received within the next 6 months'.

Take the win for what it is...not for what it isn't (yet).

"Not see or read the constantly bashing will be a relief. However, until the day - we will have to cope with them (unfortunately)"

Heard of the filter button? If you're that thin-skinned or so unsure of your investment that you can't bear anything remotely negative being said about it then why not use it?

“The 2 main problems here in my opinion are that every poster thinks they are right and a lack of updates from the company regarding testing and settlement atm.”

Agree, except it’s not really the posters who think that they are right that are the problem but the ones that think that they KNOW that they are right and deal in absolutes when it is really just opinion.

As you say, only hard news will give us the definitive answer.

Missed opportunity with the running analogy Brew. You’d be better off by claiming you’ve built a Time Machine in your garage and getting some posters here to invest.

On a more serious note the company could have released some sort of data or other evidence to support why they think the 2.6x claim is true without giving any secrets away. They haven’t which just encourages scepticism for their fantastical claims.

I sympathise with you Reardon, hopefully this isn’t your only investment and you have others giving you a decent return to more than offset the frustration here.

As the information SCB provided clearly shows the market has grown over the year but BOO have gone backwards so there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to fight off the increasing competition and take advantage of the continued recovery.

That said they are taking definite action regarding core brand focus and cost control which should help both revenue and profitability. Their lukewarm outlook suggests it’s going to take time though to really impact the company’s fortunes or share price.

So it depends on your own circumstances, patience and confidence in their strategy delivering. I certainly wouldn’t advise you on what to do (even if that was legal) - it has to be your call.

As for me I would have bailed already had I not had other shares delivering and even more so because of the risk of selling and as soon as I do there is some offer from Frasers or somebody and I miss out on an instant 50%+ uplift. Without something like that though I think the price is stuck around here for many more months to come so I’m afraid your patience may be tested a lot further.

Good luck though in whatever you decide to do.

Actually I think it’s way past time I filtered you after your latest sorry attempt to score points but only succeeding in scoring yet another own goal. It’s like trying to explain astrophysics to a five year old and a very unpleasant one at that.

So rather than waste any more of my life on someone unwilling and unable to learn and that is more interested in boasting about his holidays and watches I’ll leave you to your own little world. Maybe you’ll get to see 65p one day but you’ll never see £6.50. Good luck with that anyway.

Obviously they are similar as the chart on the right (the one you should be using) is the total internet sales which is the numerator of the chart on the left.

The difference is the one on the right gives exactly what you are talking about i.e. internet sales (the clue’s in the title) and clearly shows a trend of increasing internet sales for at least a year. So not what you claimed at all from reading the figures from the wrong graph - and reading them badly as April was far from the first month to show a year on year increase even on that set of numbers.

Anyway thank you proving yourself wrong. I’m actually starting to feel quite sorry for you. Has all that sun got to your head?

Not sure where you are getting £250k from as the monthly cash burn looks to be about half that from the last 18 months accounts. On top of that there may have been higher developments costs recently but on the other hand the initial court settlement money should be in now (though a little concerning this hasn't been confirmed yet given the dates for both instalments have now passed).

So as long as the development costs haven't soared they should be OK for a few months yet.

"Hexam remember that Easter fell in April last year and March this.

So the straight monthly comparison yoy isn't valid as holidays are always good for online sales"

True but my main point was that all the months before April were better than the previous year, not so much that April wasn't. The dip in April is probably just a hiccup because of the weather and, as you say, where easter happened to fall.

"Where is your information that they underperformed?"

ONS volume stats and the BOO accounts (where they say orders were down 13%).

"I wouldn't say the online sector has been in growth since before covid, it would seem like April of this year is the first month that has beat the previous year's month"

You couldn't be more wrong really as once again you seem fixated on the proportion of internet sales out of total sales rather than the actual internet sales themselves. If you look at the internet sales these actually went DOWN in April year on year for the first time since February 2023. So the market has grown every month since the start of the last BOO financial year - until last month. If you remember the commentary it actually mentioned the drop in April in both total sales and internet sales but said that the drop in total sales was higher. Here's a reminder:

"The amount spent online, known as online spending values, fell by 1.2% during April 2024, and by 1.5% over the year.

As total spend showed a greater fall during the month (2.6%), the proportion of sales made online increased from 26.2% in March 2024 (revised from 25.9%) to 26.5% in April 2024." [note the percentages are slightly different to yours as their comment was based on seasonally adjusted figures]

GMV growth will be higher than revenue growth because of Debenhams so I believe the fact they have not given a figure for the amount of GMV growth suggests to me it is very low and with them not mentioning revenue at all it suggests to me that they expect revenue itself may not grow. Clearly the analysts agree but it is all only opinion.

Of course cash can be positive without revenue growth as they are targeting the other side i.e. significant reductions in both ongoing costs and (as you mention) capex plus they won't have the same uplift in inventory that they had in establishing the US distribution centre.

You seem suddenly hung up on volume rather than revenue but I don't see what that adds in terms of encouragement as they underperformed on that as well despite keeping prices down.

I thought my post was balanced (and was aligned with BOO's and the markets expectations) - in particular in managing expectations with any revenue growth to me being a GOOD result which I will gladly recognise as such if you are right and it happens.

"I'll just have confidence in the fundamentals"

What fundamentals? This is a company where the investment case rests solely on whether you believe they have a saleable product or not (and of course the strength of that product or products). Until then there is no revenue and barely any other 'fundamentals' to judge on.

It is clear that more and more investors are getting twitchy but that is inevitable with the prolonged lack of news but everybody has their breaking point - yours just seems to be further down the line than most.

"It seems strange that the analyst's are forecasting a revenue decline in a growing market based on no numbers whatsoever. Especially when the economy is improving, real wages are going up and website figures look decent"

Not perhaps when the market also grew last year but revenue still fell over 17%. The market may be growing but so is the competition with Shein muscling in, high street retailers moving more online etc. And many have been posting here for ages about how good the web stats are but it doesn't seemed to have helped sales much.

They've probably though just taken their cue from BOO's own outlook which suggests to me that they are expecting a broadly flat year on revenue.

On the positive side I don't think a year of consolidation to help sort out profitability would be a bad thing. Any growth at all I think would be a decent result but if revenues suffer another significant fall then that would really spell trouble in my view.