Member Info for Hermit

The share trade chart has a lot of sales in red at around 5.7p , but that given one of them just after the presentation for £2k in the middle of the 5.7p lot is mine and was a buy, not a sell,, it might indicate that all of them are actually buys and not sells...

Re VV: thanks, interesting the advances being made. I imagine that this particular discovery would be a good complementary treatment to the CIZ test, rather than a competitor...

Hi Bid, I think you're correct re the uncertain timing for the LDT accreditation especially as we don't know when/what date they actually submitted their application, although they did seem pretty confident when they gave themselves that 3 month window of Q2. I think you're also correct that after LDT accreditation the success for Cizzle Bio will be measured on how fast and to what extent they can get uptake and revenue traction. The big difference between them and us, on this side of the pond, though, is that LDT accreditation by the US authorities seems to be the magic bullet enabling CIZ to open other doors, which should allow the test to be launched much more easily in the UK, EU, China & RoW.... so logically there's likely to be share price rallies not only on CLIA approval, but also further ones whenever there's a hint of the test possibly being launched with the UK / NHS, or in the EU, China, Australasia, South America etc.. It also seems very possible that with any wider introduction of the test around the world, the more attractive it becomes for a Big Pharma player to buy CIZ out... GLA

There's definitely been some large holder clearing off their position these last weeks or months, usually in 50k or 100k share tranches for whatever reason.Anyway, it's acted just like the MET1 sales as a brake on the CTL sp moving steadily upwards. I should have been counting the total number of these relatively big tranche sales to have an idea of whether it's some broker still clearing out the original MET1 position, or whether it's another holder, but didn't bother because I still have good confidence in the CTL situation and am happy to be patient. It's a shame that sellers don't give a reason for their sales, but my guess is that this one is due to the seller's immediate needs or extraneous events in their life. Presumably there'll be an end to them soon.

Personally I figure he's knows exactly where CIZ stands and what's right around the corner. Convert now and drop the sp by a fraction of a pence whereas - assuming it rises well after test launch - converting later might drop it a couple of pence ...

FF - yes, and, as almost always, I generally agree with you again (14.21) - except I’m imagining that the sp might reach into the 4p to 5p range with the CLIA unless we drop into the low end of 2p (or below) before that happens. There seems to be someone who’s had a sizeable investment who’s been slowly liquidating it for whatever reason over recent weeks which has kept the price down, and it’ll be a relief once they’ve cleared off. Anyway, nice to have what looks to be blue skies and some sunshine ahead of us, when in previous years things looked much more precarious if not downright gloomy.

FF 12.24

Yes the CLIA will be specifically for the OMNI lab in Texas. OMNI have to document their ability to perform the test correctly and get the right accuracy of results every time. Then the CLIA certifies that that test can be done accurately in that lab. Each and every other lab wanting to perform the test have to go through the same process of being able to prove that they can do the test accurately. But when OMNI get their CLIA for the CIZ test, it should be easier for every other lab in the sense that Prof Dawn C et al will have ironed out any teething problems with doing the test in a commercial lab with a larger scale turnover. And in OMNI’s lab it immediately starts being useful for the public and saving the lives of people with earlier stages of lung cancer, and note that OMNI has apparently already been lining up/registering gawd knows how many people who are interested in having the test.

For the test to be widely adopted across the USA and elsewhere, it’s going to need the back up of strong clinical validation, ie larger studies or data showing that the test is consistent across diverse populations & ages and that it meaningfully improves patient outcomes - hence the partnership and trials with the Moffitt Cancer Centre initiated last year and the blind blood tests currently being analysed in York which is intended to produce that data. The Ciz & CizBio team have been very professionally lining up the ducks and doing the right promotions to get as prepared as possible.

I think it’s going to be a slower process overall than many of the recent posters on here realise, but at the same time the start of validated commercial sales of the test in the USA is a massive milestone and likely to be the trigger prompting the process of the test being taken up in other countries, eg Canada & the Caribbean, the UK, EU & Asia etc, - so it’s an enormous milestone which should get reflected in the sp. Once the Moffitt data is also out, then I imagine big Pharma might also get interested in whether they can get in on the act.

What we also don’t know is how far CIZ have got with their intended development of a test kit for a lab or for doctors’ surgeries. Once that’s done, the test kit can be submitted for FDA approval after which other labs or surgeries can use that kit without doing their own full LDT validation that OMNI have been going through…

PFS - as announced in this RNS and in earlier presentations - will be published shortly, before the final ratification of the CEOL in Q2. Could be this week, next week or whenever they feel it ripe to do... Great news for the team and all those people who have been working on the LV project, and a big relief to us investors who invested our kitchen sinks and everything else in here....

I'm a long term holder and have suffered when the sp has dropped and dropped thru the years and am now well below water. . Ok I've tried to sell part of my holding and then buy back in lower when appropriate and then recently have also bought in as much as I could afford with new money with the recent low fund raise with its deliciously cheap warrants. But despite all that I've recently been very concerned about the lack of CEOL news when I was expecting that the government response to CTL's application could have been in late January or early Feb, and as time passed and there's been no news thru Feb I had began to wonder whether there was bad news afoot (again), and whether despite the unattractive sp it might be better to start reducing my exposure and accepted the losses ... so I tried to contact people who might know more than me, with some success, and I quickly got the assurance that nothing had changed, the Company was still very positive that all would fall into place and that the future for CTL in their eyes was very bright, nothing had changed. (I guess had there been material news negative or positive it would have had to be announced in its own RNS). But apparently the CTL team apparently still think the future is very bright and that the CEOL acceptance will come in due course. Personally, with that insight I'm now holding with full portfolio (and hoping)...Next week I imagine will give the answer.

Agreed VV (10.33am) and Green.... on first quick reading of the RNS it seemed very positive but then the realisation sunk in that it all depends on what value one gives to the bit about 'BIO being "now in the final stages of the CLIA accreditation process" - first reading suggested that they've almost finished and the test could be out by April, but past history of AS's comments probably means they've just kicked the can down the road for 6 months. Arguably they've been in the "final stages" for the last year or three, and with no explanation for the delays on the previous timeline nor any detail of exactly what they've yet to do, one's none the wiser as to whether or not they have a problem in doing the test at commercial scale which they haven't yet resolved. The bit about the extra royalties later on seems to me to be a meaningless addition at this stage of uncertainty. The two positive elements I've taken are that it seems someone in CIZ reads these share chats and is responding to the increasingly complaints about the lack of investor communications, and secondly, more importantly, is that the whole thing is still alive rather than dead in the water. I hope they succeed...

We're lucky that the adult in the room (18.33) has come back. Here's some more blah blah: I suspect that CTL was in survival mode when they had the August fundraiser, and that the other options might have been worse for us retail holders. As a LTH it was great to be able to be average down with those warrants, am very grateful that it was open to all existing shareholders as well as any institution with cash to invest. Sure, astute institutional investors with a few million £ to spare are going to cream off their very easy profits and short term holders and day traders are going to be frustrated by untimely sales but assuming these next couple of weeks go according to plan we'll all also get a payday down the line. Just my opinion, and it all depends on the Ceol result. GLA (incl any adults).

Thanks for the posts. My own bias makes me totally agree with you Lord (re 08.48) but there's been many times when I've been burned by the same optimism, and I guess if MetalsOne are sitting on 20 million warrants and presumably still have over 10m ordinary shares, it probably makes sense to pocket something. Not that I'll do anything similar with my own holding, soonest time I'd consider taking any profits is after not just announcement of Ceol fast track negotiations but also all of actual license granted, strategic partner announcement and ASX listing... CTL looks too good to be getting out of the game too soon...

07.30 - is there anywhere where it's possible to see accurately daily sales and purchases? Too many times I've seen purchases that I've made marked down as sales on this site. Have always thought it a shame that brokers or whoever arranges a trade aren't obliged to state whether it's a sell or purchase. I've also noticed with the large broker company that I trade through that they seem to do their own trading internally, so I sometimes and for half an hour or whatever I can't get offered anywhere near a price that I see posted on this website, or that I manage especially at the start of a day to get a trade in that's much better than it might be a few minutes later...

I guess also that as the MetalsOne TR-1 says that the threshold for their notification was reached on January 23rd, then we are reasonably likely to get more TR-1 "Holdings in Company" releases from MetalsOne if / once the 6%, 5%, 4% or whatever other thresholds are passed? Surely there's nothing to say that they've stopped their profit taking exercise...

Nice to know that there's a logical reason behind these recent days/weeks of large quantities being sold off, that it's simply profit taking (especially if it counters losses MetalsOne are making on other investments). It didn't make sense to me that so much was being sold when the likelihood is high that there will be a significant jump upwards of the sp within the next couple of weeks. That news (especially the extra detail in Saitek's link) gets rid of the nagging feeling that someone or some people well connected behind the scenes had some knowledge of problems with the latest CTL Ceol application., and instead it's that the sales have nothing to do with the Ceol.

My guess is an RNS somewhere between 3rd and 6th Feb...

For the 800k trade, if I remember correctly from the Investor Meet discussions after the retail placing at 5p, DFD mentioned there was one individual who subscribed for much more than everyone else (I think he mentioned £85k or so )... then the next big trader down if I recall correctly subscribed for around £33k, then maybe one or possibly two others were in the low £20k area ). These large subscriptions were then shaved down a few percent to accommodate every other retail application at smaller amounts - maybe just a coincidence, but I'm wondering whether the 800k trade might be that large retail placing being sold off, leaving the individual with risk off for their remaining 6p warrants... just a thought, because the number approximately correlates...

Couerdelion - it makes sense to me because surely an existing "partner" at the CEOL Application submission stage would also have the right to participate in the actual discussions & negotiations with government re the licence conditions, otherwise the strategic partner will later just have to accept whatever CTL negotiated.. Anonymity might be because they want to be certain of license rather than be associated with any unexpected event that ends in failure to obtain a license. Ignaceo's recent visit to London / Europe might have also been to conclude this? Just a thought. But things are all moving in the right direction now...

Well, great news that the application has been submitted, and also that they state unequivocally that there is no complication arising from the court case against the subsidiary, and that they now have a partner that easily enables them to meet all the financial criteria too. Just wondering, does the fact that there's now this anonymous partner "who is an experienced minerals Company" possibly mean that the strategic partner discussions have also already concluded successfully?

Legend, the change to the polygon doesn't change anything for CTL nor for the work done re the PFS etc. The sp likely hasn't moved up because people will be wary until the CEOL is actually in the bag, because CTL once got to this stage before. But to me the future now looks very bright indeed..... So all still on the same sequence of events as was mentioned just over a month ago, except we're a couple of weeks behind that schedule because the Chilean government took longer than expected to close the indigenous consultations and complete their consolidation process... and with Xmas now imminent I doubt CTL will be submitting their formal application in December, more likely early to mid January. Guess we might learn more about timing if there's an Investor Meet soon to boost today's good news... GLA & Happy Hols!