When you know...15 Jul 2024 09:49
You know...
RE: Environmental permits23 Jun 2024 11:34
Fomad whilst I agree with your comment in principle, I think the Ecuadorian elections next May would be of more importance to a potential suitor. So let's say this time next year may well be the time a major makes a move on a fully derisked Cascabel, technically, environmentally and politically.
But, as Fort has eluded to, there are reasons they may not. Firstly they would have to pay a substantial premium of the current NPV. Secondly, I believe SOLG will soon force them to play their hand, and this will be the outcome of the financial initiative update given in the RNS on the 14th May.
So what do I think it will be? Well it won't be an offtake as that would have been concluded by now, and wouldn't provide the cash required by SOLG to do what they now want to do, that is to drill and progress other prospects whilst continuing to derisk Cascabel.
In my view it'll be a gold royalty agreement and the comments from the RNS stating it'll cover 'a significant portion of the initial capital development' ($1.4bn) and 'highlighting it as a Tier 1 asset and a premier investment opportunity', I believe we are looking at an initial finance royalty deal of $1bn. This will mean it will be one of the worlds top three royalty companies, two of which (Franco-Nevada and Wheaton Precious Metals) have completed deals in Ecuador but only one has dealt with SOLG and has tge financial clout to conclude such a deal, and that's Franco-Nevada. That's who I think has arranged the bridging loan and that's who I think will conclude the royalty deal.