Member Info for HelloSanDiego

I blame the WHO. They're the ones who insist that all drugs have to be proven safe and effective. Without such restrictive regulation we'd see many more drugs getting approved and from a business point of view that can only be a good thing.

Size82 - "you have to remember a global trial was chosen to make sure the trial actually finished."

No, it was chosen so they could prove the drug was effective globally. If you test a drug in Britain and 80% of your participants are white people of european descent, you can't be certain it will help any of the patients who turn up at hospital in India, for instance.

I'm fairly certain Richard Marsden explained that during the early stages of the P3 trial.

So it would have not only helped the drug's chances of approval in those countries, but would also have boosted the awareness of those doctors who practice there.

It was originally posted at 18:58 yesterday on ADVFN. If I can post links here, here it is:

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/synairgen-SNG/share-chat

Sharedealer2019 - "but perhaps I am getting you mixed up with someone else"

No it's probably me. I tend to disagree with everyone on here at least some of the time.

Sharedealer2019 - "HSD it pains me to agree with you"

That's weird. Why's that?

MrCosts - "RM appears to be a good guy however he takes the big bucks home and therefore needs to either deliver ASAP or move out. "

Nobody had any complaints about Richard Marsden until the P3 trial failed. Now everyone seems to think the trial method was devised/approved by him rather than all of the scientists the company employs.

I wouldn't expect anything from the AGM either.

I don't think we'll hear anything more on that until it's actually confirmed it's been included on another trial, and I don't think they'll have that arranged three weeks from now.

From Doc83's note on Numis - "We introduce FY 2022 forecasts, calling for an adjusted net loss of £23.7m and year-end cash of £10.3m."

I don't know if their financial forecasts are more realistic than their (ridiculous) share price targets. But if they're close, I'm happy enough with that.

No I didn't think that, Doc.

I was trying to find out if you actually knew anything about how quickly they were spending money.

There's a difference between paying bills and "burning through the cash".

Just so that we're clear, you have no idea how quickly they're spending money then?

Doc83,

How do you know they're "burning through the cash"?

For all we know, they were expecting more from the deep-dive data that arrived on Monday. We have no idea if they are more confident or less confident than last week. Maybe their confidence is unchanged.

If only there were some way of knowing. Some small clue we could look out for...

Doc83 - "In reality, it matters not a jot."

It does matter, and for several reasons.

It would show their confidence in the drug remains at least as high as it did in February. Also, if they reach the threshold it suggests they don't expect a fundraise in the near future. Because if they did, they would hold out for a discount of the remaining 6-8 million shares that would put them at 30%. Another reason is that it suggests they not very confident they could pick them up for 20p if they waited longer.

Doc83 - "SD2019 - you were talking about TR1's days ago!"

I said on Monday I was expecting one from Polygon this week. But I see their last one from six weeks ago put them at 26.026% which means they could've bought almost two million more since then without having to notify. So I still think there's a good chance they were buying on Monday.

There's also a fair chance we could find out we're on another NIH trial in the coming days or weeks. If that happens I think the price here will double instantly.

When he talks about teams that are conducting trials on other viruses of concern, it's not hard to believe he's referring to this: https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-announces-antiviral-drug-development-awards

Tattyhead - "He could have calculated the potential downfall and redesigned the trial"

You think the CEO designed the trial method?!

dgdg1 - "Why does everyone keep criticising the protocol and RM for agreeing it?"

The most vocal people on here don't seem to know much about investing or how clinical trial procedures work.

Dondaneeka - "the hospitalisation and ICU graph is so low now that you wonder if the FDA is still in emergency mode."

They had 12,500 people hospitalized and 3,500 in ICU on 1st July last year. It rose to 97,000 people hospitalized and 25,000 in ICU ten weeks later.

xviolet - "pharma is glacially slow "

I agree with that. The time from a single trial being announced to the results being revealed can usually be measured in years. Covid drug development has been the exception. It's not normally like that.

Looking at yesterday's volume vs today's I'll be surprised if we don't see another TR1 from Polygon by tomorrow.

I also think that the closer they get to 30%, the more confident we can be that they won't be expecting a fundraise any time soon.