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Well we know that £40m thqat how been outlined for the US will now be back in Mobico pockets with the contract ended early, and the German final stamps on the contract are due with the next few days this month. debt down, profits up, we very well could see 60 with the next couple of months

I think I going to long play this and start buying everything month on a constant basis, the true price of this company once we get debt down near 500m region is 160 a share. So happy to buy constantly for the next couple of years and build position to easily multi bag on a safe company, when the tech bubble pops late this year funds and PI will be looking for tangible services and assets.

2026 they are expecting £100m savings. Then on top of that they have the £40m from the US contract that gets turned from a negative. On top of that the German contracts that had been a negative become neutral to positive. So expect the debt to fall fast by the end of 2026, and can look to clear big chunks off in 2027. Considering the board will want dividends back on the table soon I imagine getting debt down quick is the name of the game at the moment, and they seem to be winning.

Flipping heck @firepower1 , that is a very bitter reaction, I feel sorry that you have such negative emotions.

But facts is facts, the shorts were correct when they started they loading, but their short thesis is now broken, the USA and German contract are sorted, they are no longer loosing money on the USA and we will get the official sign off in the German contracts this month.

Debt is now down, and falling fast. Profit are healthy. Revenue is great and room to grow. They are working on another £100m savings this year. The new CEO is a seasoned pro at cost cutting and revenue growth.

Everything that the shorts could have used to get the price to here has changed. That is why we are seeing funds sat on the market eating the sells, because we are literally in the moment of the flip where this share price starts to move north.

1. The German Rail Contracts

This is the primary "catalyst" for your thesis. The focus here is on de-risking and long-term sustainability.

Status: "Agreement in principle" reached (Jan 29, 2026); formal legally binding agreements expected by June 30, 2026.

The Changes:

Rhein-Muensterland Express (RME): Converts to a "gross contract" structure starting in 2026. This removes revenue risk from Mobico (the PTA takes the risk, not Mobico) and extends the term to 2032.

Rhein-Ruhr-Express (RRX): These were the loss-making contracts. They will be shortened by three years, ending in 2030, to align with regional planning and stop the ongoing losses sooner.

Significance: This effectively "plugs the leak" in Germany. Management has stated they will update their 2026 guidance to reflect the positive impact of these changes once the signatures are finalized.

2. The U.S. WMATA Contract

This situation has shifted from an operational burden to a legal recovery story.

Status: WMATA issued a notice of termination effective May 12, 2026. Mobico is cooperating with the transition of services.

The Financials:

Total Contract Value: Originally ~$370 million over 5 years.

The Provision: Mobico set aside a £52 million "onerous contract provision" in their 2025 results to account for expected losses.

The "Burn": Only about £4 million of that provision had been utilized by the time the contract was terminated.

The Litigation: Mobico filed a civil lawsuit against WMATA for breach of contract on January 28, 2026. This is now the "recovery" phase.

Significance: While the contract was a major drag on North American margins, its termination stops the cash drain immediately. The market is now focused on how much of that remaining ~£48 million provision can be "written back" or recovered via legal settlement.

You are currently observing a company that is aggressively restructuring its business model:

Guidance: Mobico is targeting £195m – £210m in Adjusted Operating Profit for 2026.

Savings: The "Simplified for Success" program targets £100 million in annualised cost savings by the end of 2026.

Resolution of the USA and German contracts that were a drain are being resolved, USA bad contract already stopped and German contract announced in the next few days this month. Combined with the already reduced debt and extra cost savings, Mobico will be increasing their debt reduction faster while increasing the amount of profit.

The company has now successfully turned around and back into a new period of increased profits and growth opportunities.

If there is a background seller then they will be using the buys to help them clear in which case expect another drop on this before the floor is found

Good floor, big buyers sat there with ice bergs eating everything that enters the market, and shorts now over leveraged in their position. Coiled spring ready to pop, any large buy and game over for the shorts as this will rocket

New support floor if, and we are now waiting for German news to pop out. Expect a very healthy move north.

Happy with the consolidation, hopefully a bit more so we can clear sellers and have a new stable floor

Good presentaiton yesterday. looks like the company has worked out what they need to do to turn the ship back to good profits and growth again. seems like the outflows have finished and they are maximising their resources and company restructure to be more efficient and more effective in the market.

The only thing honest is the market they say, so let it drop, we can get more shares, and make more money on the long run

Honestly is the share price collapses tomorrow that is a great opportunity to buy more. long term we are golden.

Hmmm... now :

5% a pain in the short term = buy cheap shares

5% a blessing in the mid / long term = rocket fuel and telling us that 5% of the shares will be bought on the way up

I think the numbers will be great, and will the bad USA/German contracts resolved and put to bed, and the decrease in debt and ongoing cost savings we are looking at a very fast return to the 100 levels.

The whole way down today has been a struggle for the sellers and shorts to chip away, which makes me think the big buyers are back with ice bergs and eating up everything that is entering the market, this is a pattern that keeps emerging, which i suspect mean we will soon see a nice pop upwards of the price when the shares get bundles and consoliated :)

Good day today, the clearer out of weak hands and sellers. new floor in place, loading up ready for the next leg up ;)

I literally said last night what would happen today, look at my previous post ;)

Hey John33, it saddens me to hear how negatively mine and JO chats on this board has been, and i can only hope you have LOADED UP FOR SOME SERIOUS DIAMOND HAND ROCKET SHIP RIDDING!

JO i believe we are turning a corner, i long and hard for mobico. that said i suspet tomorrow will be a day for sellers that are up and shorts attacking, but in the grand scheme that is good, as we need to clear out on the way up to avoid bigger drops or stagnation

I suspect the shorts and sellers will combine tomorrow, not a bad thing as we need to keep clearing out weak hands on the way up, but you know what the market is like