Member Info for helloDave

@JamesOxford I'm torn, do I let the shorts have their way and sell tomorrow and have the summer offer to navel gaze. Or do I double down and for the next year put everything I have, every pay check, and get all the folks I know that are looking to invest into Mobico, back of the package we could get 1% of the free float into our locker and hold for the year or more....

I think you are right lorenzolynch and joseywales, I'm going to sell tomorrow at opening and take my 5% profit as a win and walk away, share and company has become a dog, the bod have failed and a pox on the heads of cosmen. Can't believe I fell for JamesOxford propaganda, company is doomed, the shorts were right, and there is only a hole in the ground awaiting us all.

Looking at the price it has been kept flat for the longest period, from June 2025 to now June 2026 the price has been kept flat, and the lowest the price has ever been in its entire history, are Cosmen and funds trying to keep the price artificially flat as part of a takeover plan?

EBITDA: While the exact 2025 EBITDA is typically higher due to depreciation and amortization (common in capital-intensive transport firms), a rough estimate based on £198m operating profit would place EBITDA in the £450m–£550m range, given the scale of their fleet and asset base.

Based on your scenario—where the primary drag on profitability (German rail/USA contracts) is removed and the company hits its performance targets—a market capitalization in the £1.5 billion to £2.0 billion range would be a reasonable target for a company with ~£500m in EBITDA and £900m in net debt.

Valuation Multiple: Transport and logistics firms typically trade at an EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value to EBITDA) multiple. A sector average often sits between 4.0x and 6.0x.Calculating Enterprise Value (EV):If we take an EBITDA of ~£500m and a conservative multiple of 5.0x, the Enterprise Value would be £2,500m.Calculating Market Cap:Market Cap is calculated as: $EV - Debt = Equity Value (Market Cap)$.Using the calculation: £2,500m (EV) - £900m (Debt) = £1,600m.

Total Shares Outstanding: Mobico Group currently has approximately 614 million shares in circulation. Target Market Cap: Based on the scenario discussed previously, your target market cap range is £1,500 million to £2,000 million.

In this scenario, where the business stabilizes and the "turnaround" is successful, the stock would potentially move from its current levels (trading roughly around the 22–23p range as of June 2026) to a range of 244p to 326p.

The fairy police??? Is that some kind of pride month joke?

Anyway, facts stack and the current price is 4x below what it should be just on fair value

Just ran the numbers, considering we know the US and German contracts are sorted, if the debt gets to circa £900m, then the company value per share should be £2.40!!!!

Think I will be buying and holding on the way up, 10x opportunity here

It's just consolidation, look at the actual trades, the big boys are loading up again on the back end, they have been doing this for weeks to week the price from spiking ready for good news to raise the roof, shorts are trapped here and will have to go to the big funds to clear their positions

The german news will be signed off before the 30th June, and they will have to release an RNS as the news will become public and as a trading company they need to announce it through official channels as the first public announement.

Looks like shorts and funds are now desperate to squeeze any free float out of this now, but there are no sellers left!

we are now in count down to the rocket ship takeofff and back to 40 regions fast!!!!!

Buy buy buy

Big couple of weeks ahead. bus about to leave the depot, time to get onboard asap

@firepower1 shorts start decreasing last week..... so the shorts are getting out now

Fingers cross Elon just buys up mobico to add to the new infrastructure empire

Fair market value with the loss making USA and German contracts sorted, plus the reduction in debt to £1b, and the improvement business revenue growth:

Short term 52

Mid term 75

Long term 120

Word from a friend in travel industry, flights and holidays to Spain have increased due to MEA issues, significant uptick in holidays to Spain instead of Dubai, and alot of the holiday destinations in Spain are bus routes for Asla (Mobico) :)

If shorts closing a position that small could cause such a jump in price imagine what it's going to be like when they all try to get out with max profit. Time for a short squeeze. Buy everything and hold their feet to the bonfire!!!

Shorts decreasing:

Citadel Advisors LLC 1.46% -0.07% 11 Jun 2026

Good day of consolidation, keep clearing the short term sellers and raising the floor for the rocket ship platform

Im still confused on your negatives Firepower1, they have already stated what the german contracts will be, and just waiting for the rubber stamp, and from my experience with german companies in simialr industries they are very slow and over check the details, but we already know from the mobico press release what is to be expected.

that horrible loss making US contract has now been cut with £40m able to be recouped, and it looks like mobico are giong to win out of court settlement to get even more money back.

the year end was good, nice revenue and nice profit.

the debt is now down under the £1b region, with more savings expected this year.

the market keeps popping up becuase the facts are known, but everyone are just waiting for official news which will be very soon.

Not sure. One thing is certain, we now have 12 working days before the German new has to be released. The shorts will need to close asap to maximise profits. See you in the mid 30's soon :)