Member Info for helloDave

@JamesOxford i think you missing how the oil price affects things, funds have to sell a few shares and transport shares to balance the increase in oil, but this has nothing to do with mobico, and the changes in oil have no affects on their margins. the good thing is that the forced sell creates liquidity or better yet a big short trap, and the funds that are sat with icebergs eat it all up and we get a nice consolidated market ready for the rise up. coiled spring this share, ready for a fast move north.

Mid term play for me, have done a lot of reaserch over the past 2 weeks, so now im just going to buy every month, and increase my purchase with any dips on the road back up. tech sector about to crash as they are overstretched, and people want experiences and tangible goods again, so investing in infrastrcure that is essential and physical goods/services is the play now. tech sector is massive bubble and no real room to growth with too many bodies in the space.

Mobico have hedges against oil prices, so the price of oil does not affect them.

but the good news is, portfolio diversification with the new rail frieght, move to reduce oil usage that will have longer term benefits and cost reductions, plus tax reduction for carbon offsets. the reduction in debt, and the money back from that bad US and German contracts, and hopefully the sale of west midlands bus operations soon.

Fair value price for this share = 80p

west midlands asset sales

mobico would potentially receive a total payout of approximately £106.7 million from its west midlands bus operations.this estimate is a combination of two major asset categories:£100 million for the net book value of its public service vehicles, plant, and operational equipment.£6.725 million in net cash proceeds from the already-negotiated sale of the a****s green and west bromwich depot properties.

The move to electric, hydrogen, and the expanded rail freight business shows the massive work being done to increase profit and remove risks from oil and reach carbon offsets and tax reductions, this is great work by mobico and paving the way to a high profit future

For Mobico, this announcement signals a successful diversification strategy. Doubling Alsa Rail's volume over the next two years secures a much stronger, more profitable foothold in the Spanish freight market, particularly along the lucrative Atlantic and Mediterranean rail corridors.

Do not have to worry about oil prices, mobico have hedge this.

all we are waiting for is the german news which is this month.

each day it doesnt come out all the shorts and sellers will do is offload and attack, but this is good for the funds and PI as they will just load up and make the shorts lives worse to get out in the long run, causing a short squeeze and more fuel in the engine.

the true price of the share should be in the 70's, tkaing into account the debt reduction, revenue/profit, and clearing of the old USA and German contracts.

The Math:

Target Enterprise Value: 4.2 x £360m = £1,512m

Minus Target Net Debt: - ££970m

Implied Fair Equity Value: £542m

Divided by Shares Outstanding: £542m / 614m shares = 88.2p per share.

a fair and reasonable target for the stock as de-leveraging progresses through the back half of the year is between 55p and 75p. Even at 55p, the stock would be trading at a massive discount to its actual revenue-to-equity proportions, highlighting just how severely mispriced it is at 23p.

Alsa, the Spanish arm of Mobico Group, this month launched the new public transport system in Ibiza (Consell Insular d'Eivissa) and is set to transform mobility on the island with a modern, efficient, and sustainable fleet of more than 100 vehicles.

In this first phase, Alsa has already introduced 22 new buses, 10 of which are 100% electric and 12 hybrid, and will adopt a model where 66% of the fleet will be zero-emission.

This project represents a comprehensive improvement of the current service, featuring a 50% increase in kilometers covered, better connectivity between urban centres and peripheral areas, and reinforced service throughout the year.

https://www.mobicogroup.com/media/news-releases/2026/alsa-begins-transformation-of-passenger-mobility-on-ibiza/

Okay John33, hint taken will keep comments on the down low for a moment. i hope you have a better afternoon and evening, best wishes from the guys at the sauna

The genral concise is that the company has finally turned things around, getting on now and holding will yield very nice profits

Looks like the shorts are using another account with squatlover2 turning up.

the German news will be out between now tha 30th June, and if you look at the trading for the past 2 weeks there are funds sat with icebergs eating everything.

target price bases on the facts for end of year = 70

Wait for a sell off, could see this settle down before it goes again

You'll be surprised, the free float is so small that PI will actually have a big affect on this share. Eat day their are funds sat there eating any sells, and I suspect a fair few are in for the longer game (100+ region).

Also we are hardly rambling, just saying what the facts are which is that the fair value price of this share should be a lot more than what it is.

The shorts to be fair were right, but now at this price and situation their case does not work anymore.

Very diplomatic of you @firepower1

The facts are the facts, US dead weight contract is resolved, with £40m coming back to Mobico, the German contract is agreed in principle they have already released the details its just now red tape and stamps which have to be done by the 30th June, the debt is down, cost savings of £100m being made this year, passenger numbers across the business up, and new CEO with a skilled team making the business more streamlined and highly profitable.

The wind has changed directions and now filling Mobico sails to take it back to the land of milk and honey.

They have already taken their positions, and the increases the past month have been tiny.

On the flip side, it's a positive as that tells us there is a large amount of shares that will be bought at some point.

German news out in coming days, and official end of year financial report also due end of month/July which already is pointing to a better bottom line with the US contracts resolved.

It looks like the shorts managed to drive the price down on a sound thesis, but now that thesis doesn't work anymore, as such the shorts are now trying to keep a lid on this, they can see the same data as us and it's clear there are big funds sat with icebergs eating all the free float ready for German news and long term hold for multibag profit.

Everyday more PI are loading on top of this, so there is less and less free float. This has now moved into short trap territory, and once good news lands we are off to the races.

Look at that last few price actions the price moves very fast to 30 regions, but the true value is more north of the 50 region based on revenue/profit and current debt reduction.

I wonder if the shorts are trying to keep this in line so when the price ticks up they know there are funds and institutions sat there ready with shares to sell back to them. At this point the shorts loading makes no real sense taking into account we know the US is sorted and the German news can be any day now. There is on about 10% free float outside of major holders, and the short position is 5%, so it will be a real bum fight to get out at maximum profit now, and every day we can see that there are ice bergs buyers and fund loading up.

Looks like PI are also starting to load up now, in which case the availability of free shares decreases everyday on the run up to the news.

The agreement in principle is already outlined to the benefit of Mobico, all we're waiting for now is the official stamp which is guaranteed by the 30th June 2026. Just a waiting game now, on the plus side allows for more buying of cheap shares

Bit of a stalemate at the moment, shorts or sellers being eaten and buyers happy to wait while getting a bargain