Member Info for helloDave

We are far from administration. That's the funny thing about this share, from this point forward everything is pointing to massive turn around or cheeky takeover. Easy play from here, with the ai bubble getting into late stages funds will start to switch out of tech and into more ground options that are value plays.

@John33 I wish I was kicking back with some sweet mexican cabbage. Alas, I'm on the wagon until summer solstice when I can get caked in mud and hippy body rubbing

True John, just like everyone I'm only working with what intel we can publicly source. Either way most rational people can see that either another takeover bid comes from Cosmen (look back at 2009) or we chill out and get a bigger payout from here with the resolution of German/USA contracts, debt reduction, and cost savings :)

Yes paddy, I spent the day researching, so we are looking at 2 outcomes, Cosmen launching a bid now before the price naturally moves up. Cosmen will want to make the take over soon to avoid the higher price that will naturally come. Either way us PI buying now will be making lots £ :)

The logic for a 35p takeover ahead of the June 30th German rail signing is clear when looking at the major UK funds holding the cards to help Cosmen reaching their 50% vote through. M&G and Aberforth played a smart game, building their 4.6% stakes during the market panics of 2025 at averages of around 25p–30p and 29p respectively. A 35p buyout gives them a brilliant result: Aberforth secures a tidy net profit despite their recent 1% trim, while M&G walks away with a handsome twenty-percent gain on their book.

Maybe they have and trying to unwind their positions behind the scenes, but looking at the facts of the trades, large volumes are being bought up via SI trades. Look what happened with Aberforth, they dropped 0.8% of the total shares into the market and they got instantly absorbed. There are many things pointing to a takeover bid very soon.

Around 35p a share. Looks like preparation for a consortium buyout. Cosmens will likely partner with an infrastructure private equity fund6. The private equity partner will inject the cash needed to refinance the £1.1 billion debt wall, while the Cosmens will roll over their 21.1% equity to take full private operational control of ALSA ;)

They are exactly 2.98% away from triggering the mandatory 30% takeover fuse.

The SI Trades: The high volume of Systematic Internaliser (SI) trades and the market easily swallowing Aberforth’s 1% sell-off without dropping the price strongly suggests they (or an allied infrastructure partner/PE fund) are quietly hoovering up the remaining 2.98% float right now.

They sort of did. Tártaro de Murera, S.A. bought 3% of the shares when the price dropped to 17p, and this strongly aligns with the mechanics of a building takeover. Tártaro de Murera manages this 18.5-million-share stake through a chain of transportation holdings, primarily CEVESA.

The relationship between the Cosmen family (ALSA) and CEVESA (Tártaro de Murera) is structured perfectly for them to cooperate rather than clash. In the tightly regulated Spanish transport market, they operate as complementary allies rather than head-to-head rivals.

Because Spain uses a strict exclusive concession system (where only one company is awarded the right to operate a specific route for a set number of years), they do not experience the cutthroat, price-war competition seen in deregulated markets like the UK.

The timing of CEVESA buying into Mobico Group aligns with structural threats to their home market. Spain is slowly facing pressure to liberalise its domestic long-distance coach market, which has historically protected local operators.Foreign disruptors like FlixBus have been aggressively trying to break Spain’s concession monopoly. For established Spanish families and operators like CEVESA and the Cosmens, protecting the dominant status of ALSA is a matter of collective sector survival. A vulnerable Mobico Group risks being bought by an aggressive outsider who could mismanage or break up ALSA, throwing the Spanish transport ecosystem into chaos.

Cosmen own 24%, CEVESA own 3%, about 1% was just dropped into the market and the price didn't really react, and there are tons of SI trades of large volume buys happening.

Cosmen family taking the whole of mobico now would makes sense. Price at all time low, before the German contract officially announced. This perspective sheds an entirely new light on the massive institutional absorption we've seen over the past 48 hours. When Aberforth dumped 5 million shares via Systematic Internaliser (SI) trades, the price didn't crash. It was cleanly mopped up by "strong hands" off-market.

​If a major shareholder or an allied entity is looking to launch a takeover bid, they are legally permitted to build their stake up to 29.9% before they are forced to launch a mandatory full offer. ​Quietly vacuuming up blocks of shares from institutions like Aberforth at 21p is exactly how a predator builds a launchpad for a privatisation bid.

Back in 2009 they offered £765 million, this time round they could get the whole thing for Fair-Value Takeover Bid (37p per share)

Total Market Cap at Takeover: £227.2 million

What they need to buy: The remaining 76.86% (472.84 million shares).

The Actual Cash Cost to the Cosmens: £175.0 million

Chill out James, the down turn is now explained with Aberforth, and considering how much the sold and the price stayed stable it tells use the sellers are clear and there is some big buyers in the back end. This is getting better and better

The current drift is being used to clean up shares, we know what the he market a funds are like, and apart from the injection by Aberforth Partners there is no free float left, so this will now move north to fill big orders

The fact that Mobico’s share price barely flinched following Aberforth Partners trimming their stake from 5.42% to 4.61% highlights robust market resilience and strong institutional appetite. Unloading roughly 5 million shares in a small-to-mid-cap stock would normally trigger a sharp drop, but the price only dipped fractionally on May 18th before rebounding and stabilizing around the 21.50p mark today. This indicates the sell-off was likely handled via an orderly, off-market block trade easily absorbed by sidelined buyers waiting to mop up the stock. Ultimately, it shows the market is looking past standard institutional rebalancing and focusing heavily on Mobico's positive turnaround progress—specifically the structural de-risking of its German rail contracts ahead of the June 30th deadline—effectively establishing a solid baseline valuation floor around 21p.

And another SI Trade, pattern set, someone is built a massive position !

19-May-26 11:46:54 21.53 250,000 Buy* 21.38 21.60 53.83k O

And another SI Trade, someone is really buying everything on the market at the moment!!!

19-May-26 10:55:38 21.84 200,000 Buy* 21.36 21.50 43.68k O

Another SI Trade:

9-May-26 08:55:49 22.05 500,000 Buy* 21.98 22.10 110.25k

Someone is loading up big time!

Same games again, big buys, and then small sells to keep price down. someone is accumulting in the background

Massive buying again with autos, and trying to ping small sells to keep the price stable. More massive accumulation happening, and big position building happening.

Expect more big institutions and funds to be buying chunks. Expect the shorts to start to make a more to closure position. Expect profits to rise. Expect debt to decrease. Expect German and USA contracts resolved. Expect 50 fast and fast run to 100

All the ghost of the past final put to rest. Now is the new era of mobico. German and USA contracts sorted, debt reduced, profit increased. Network expanded. Great times ahead, great times.