Member Info for helloDave

Karen Geary is also on the boards of ASOS and Page Group, so imagine the past few years have been tough on them. Best wishes and we wish them well with the future endeavours.

Now time to bring in some fresh blood and talent as part of the leaner proactive market ready mobico.

Would be great if a big fund knows they can squeeze the shorts and taking an aggressive position now. Solid floor where we are and less shares available in the free-float, do expect a scramble to get shares this week while the price is here. Looking at all things considered I think aiming for 30 by the end of the month is more than realistic now

Dark funds and back end trading, hence why there was a IS trade and a UT trade. They are drying to get large volumes if share without pushing the price higher. The news on the Nation Express site of the new German contracts starting on the 1st June basically ended the short thesis and with the debt reduction and USA contracts sorted this marks the end of the bad times and move for Mobico to start making some serious money. There is only 120m shares in free-float out of 600m, and the shorts have a 25m short position. If anyone starts buying chucks this will run high fast, and imagine a hedge or MM will do that and sell to the shorts for profits for both.

Nice back end accumulation by a big fund and MM :)

Vol. Sold 2,136,503

Sold Value £443.32k

Vol. Bought 6,970,599

Bought Value £1.48m

The start of a new era - massive rerate upwards. Debt down, legacy German and USA contracts sorted, increase in profitability.

It gets better!!!!

The trade at 16:35 for 1,326,613 shares at 21.54p (£285.75k) when combined with the earlier 1-million-share SI trade at 15:36, these two trades reveal a highly strategic picture, the same Institutional Buyer is "Double-Dipping". It is highly probable that the exact same institutional fund manager who bought 1 million shares via the Systematic Internaliser (SI) at 15:36 was also the dominant buyer in the closing auction. Together, these two transactions alone represent over 2.3 million shares—swallowing roughly 25% to 30% of Mobico's entire daily volume.

Closing Auction was used instead of going back to an SI, the institutional buyer used the LSE Closing Auction for the second tranche because: Guaranteed Benchmarking: Many fund managers are mandated to buy stock at the official closing price to perfectly match their portfolio benchmarks. Maximum Daily Liquidity: The closing auction is the most liquid five minutes of the entire UK trading day. It allows large funds to absorb massive chunks of shares from multiple sellers simultaneously at a single, fair market price without causing intraday slippage.

Aggressive Institutional Accumulation ("Loading Up")The "Buy*" flag on the closing print means the transaction was executed at the ask side of the closing spread, proving that the buyer was aggressively demanding liquidity rather than passively waiting for sellers. When a stock trading at an undervalued 21p–22p level sees consecutive multi-hundred-thousand-pound blocks swept up in the final hour of trading, it confirms that "smart money" is heavily front-loading a position. This usually happens ahead of a major anticipated catalyst—such as the finalization of the German Passenger Transport contract revisions or an impending major shareholder disclosure.Given that these two trades together account for ~0.38% of the entire company, a public TR-1 holding disclosure is looking increasingly likely to hit the regulatory feed this week.

A single Systematic Internaliser (SI) trade of 1,000,000 shares at 15:36pm today reinforces that this was a highly calculated, institutional block purchase. The choice of timing and exact volume indicates several distinct strategic actions:

Single trade at 15:36 instantly accounted for roughly 27% of the entire day's average volume. Slicing off over a quarter of a stock's daily turnover off-book confirms that the entity building this position is a major market player.

Strategic Late-Day Placement: Executing the trade at 15:36, less than an hour before the London Stock Exchange (LSE) market close at 16:30, is typical institutional behavior.

Liquidity Pooling: SIs and market makers have accumulated and balanced their internal books throughout the morning and afternoon, making it easier for them to comfortably match a 1-million-share order out of their own inventory.

Intraday Noise Protection: It prevents retail day-traders from spending the entire afternoon reacting to, and front-running, the large block size on the public tape.

Clear Insider or Institutional Scale because Mobico has approximately 610.34 million shares in issue, a 1-million-share trade represents 0.16% of the entire company.While a single 0.16% trade does not immediately breach the UK disclosure threshold on its own, it is highly likely part of a broader, multi-day accumulation strategy.If this trade pushes a specific fund manager, institutional investor, or corporate insider past a major threshold (like 3% or more), a public TR-1 Form (Notification of Major Holdings) will be legally required within three trading days.

Looks like a scheduled post which would have been agreed with the Germans. Taking the fact that a big part of the contract negotiation was to sort and standardised fairs, this basically an announcement by National Express that the German contracts have been sorted. The great thing is Mobico publicly said that they should soon have the last of the USA contracts sorted, which means all the legacy costly contracts have been resolved. Combine this with the debt reduction to under £1b, and the work on the cost reduction a by £100m this year, it means profit will be vastly up, and debt will be reduced at a fast rate. It's taken some time, but looks like the MCP will start moving north fast.

Iceberg buyer is accumulating, German news out, debt down, US contracts being sorted, massive rerate and move to better profits finally happening!

National Express site:

May 18, 2026

From 16 to 3: The Rhineland tariff from AVV and VRS starts on June 1st.

In two weeks, on June 1st, the new Rhineland fare system of the Aachen Transport Association (AVV) and the Rhine-Sieg Transport Association (VRS) will launch.

ITS OFFICIAL GERMAN CONTRACTS SORTED AND SIGNED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All the share are being sucked out of the market, something massive is brewing in the background! ! ! ! !

Sold Value £115.20k

Bought Value £550.31k

Too many shorts and a 4% short total position, against a major holders (> 3%) holding a total of 79% of the shares. the numbers do not stack well for the shorts to get out with maximum profit now. if only a few more percentage of the freefloat are bought and consolidated out the market then the natural floor becomes much higher fast. and in the next few weeks the german news lands, combeind with the massive debt reduction, cost reductions, US contract resolution, and we are looking at a massive rerate up. and from here, we are looking at a constant reduction of debt/costs, and increase in profit.

You are on the money James, with less than a few weeks before the German contract news is announced the shorts will be looking to clear. as such with such a small free float MM can just buy everything available and wiat for the shorts to panic and sell to them at a nice profit. as such us regualr investors have an easy pay day ahead very soon

Lock and loaded JamesOxford, bless the shares and their 4% LOL as no room left on the down side with all the free float being pulled out of the market. debt down, US and German contracts sorted, revenue good and profit increasing. And as time goes by it just gets better and better as the debt keeps decreasing and profit keeps increasing.

This is gearing up now. solid floor, shorts trap in place they need to get out now to maximise their profit, freefloat consolidated with that spanish firm buying 3%, German contracts sorted just the official news to be released, US contracts sorted, and soon news on the last US contract to be announed per Mobico last public comments on the situation. debt now below the £1b zone and decreasing, £100m cost savings in place, and new CEO with a solid history of increasing growth and profits.

ready for big reate to 40-50 very soon ;)

@AimMaster2018 yes, i said to let drift to allow the sellers to clear which it has, now the share is flipping to upwards movement, no ramp here just looking to make the memebers of this board some easy money :)

Bit more juice to squeeze out of this

1m share bought at 8:16am, and solid floor formed, appears to me that someone is loading up :)

Impending German Announcement: The market has heavily penalised Mobico for its German rail operations. Confirming the final signature with the five German Passenger Transport Authorities (PTAs) formally eliminates legacy cash drains.

The Final US Contract (WMATA): Having successfully exited the loss-making CARTA transit deal, resolving the final onerous £52 million WeDriveU contract with WMATA removes the last major source of operational earnings revisions in North America.

The £1 Billion Debt Floor: Dropping debt down to £1.0 billion—ahead of the previously feared £1.29 billion baseline—proves that cash control measures and proceeds from the North American school bus divestment have successfully stabilised the balance sheet.

The Short-Term Reaction (45p – 65p): Once the official RNS announcements for the German rail finalisation and the WMATA contract settlement cross the LSE wires, the stock is highly likely to re-rate toward the upper boundaries of current analyst targets (which top out at 70p). This level reflects a fairer assessment of a stable business with a £1 billion debt pile.

The Mid-Term Fundamental Value (100p+): If management takes the next step to bring that debt under £900 million using incoming free cash flow while executing their £100 million annualized cost-saving program, a normalized peer multiple of 8x EBIT values the equity at over £1 billion. Spread across 614 million shares, the mathematical true value rests firmly in triple digits.

I would suspect another drop again, looks like the shares bought on dips are to clear back logs of shares bought at higher pricing.