Member Info for Hedgehog100

"Ironveld 7th January 2021...

Target price – 3.26p ...

There are near, mid and long-term opportunities here. Phase 1 is the near-term opportunity
provided by the pending acquisition of an existing 7.5MW smelter, where an acquisition deal
has been agreed. To start the mine and buy the smelter will require R300 million ($20
million). ...

Definitive Feasibility Study

The 2013 JORC resource formed the basis of a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) which was
published in April 2014 and confirmed the project’s potential to deliver an exceptionally
high-grade iron product at 99.5% Fe (HPI) which has a premium price in the market. The
56.4Mt ore grading at 1.12% V2O5 represented almost double the grade of other vanadium
resources that were currently being mined and processed within the Bushveld Complex.

The DFS assessed the economic viability of the company’s pig iron and ferro-vanadium
project which will consist of a 15MW DC smelter with planned production of 41,966t of HPI,
415t of vanadium in **** and 8,269t of titanium in **** per annum from late 2015. The
project life was deemed to be in excess of 100 years and highly scalable. The capital costs
came out at US$56 million (based on a Rand-Dollar rate of 15) and the study showed that
the project would become cash flow positive from full production. By-product credits were
seen to significantly reduce the already low cash costs.

The project at that stage was seen as mining ore from the main magnetite layer which could
be fed directly to the proposed smelter without the need for beneficiation. 20MW of power
was planned to be available on site by year-end 2014 from an Eskom substation adjacent to
the project area. The DFS demonstrated that the project could deliver annual turnover of
£26.4 million and EBITDA of £8.1 million based upon the then current costs and metal
prices. ..."

https://www.ironveld.com/docs/Ironveld_Initiation_Align_Research_January_2021.pdf

Last summer was a period of excellent OVB s.p. performance, starting with its final results, as investors anticipated Russian marketing approval, and the same should apply this time too.

Ultimately approval last year was temporarily knocked back, but only for minor procedural 'box-ticking' stuff.
Crucially, there were no concerns raised about the drug's effectiveness or safety, which are the two key criteria:

2nd Oct 2020 7:00 am RNS Update re Russian Marketing Authorisation
" ... Ovoca has been informed that the Minzdrav has not granted the MA to BP-101 following the identification of certain issues relating to the chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) and labelling sections of the MA submission dossier. The Company notes that no issues were highlighted by the Minzdrav regarding the safety or efficacy of BP-101 in the acquired generalized form of HSDD, which has been established by clinical data from two Phase 1 studies, a Phase 2a study and the pivotal Phase 3 study completed in 2019, all as conducted in the Russian Federation. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/OVB/update-re-russian-marketing-authorisation-oz9x0y7ggukj4jt.html

So approval this time round looks like a formality, and it could be as early as October.

That should give an immediate big boost to the s.p., and should be followed by news on this:
"Discussions are progressing with a leading local candidate that can both manufacture and distribute BP-101."

Sales should then commence in Russia, the world's largest country, providing great cashflow to complement OVB's already excellent balance sheet.

And we also have the results of the Australia and New Zealand trials to look forward to, probably by the end of the year, a major step on the road to opening up other markets, including Europe and the US.

It's quite incredible that you can buy such a well-funded and proven biotech, with such massive potential, for a sub £10M. market cap.

A market cap. of £100s of millions looks very possible longer-term if the company delivers upon its potential.

Ovoca Bio plc BP-101 Presentation

https://ovocabio.com/results-reports-presentations/

OVOCA BIO JUNE 2021

... Ovoca’s approach - BP-101
• Novel synthetic peptide conveniently
administered through a nasal spray.
• Validated in Russian Phase II and Phase
III studies
– Demonstrated statistically significant and
clinically meaningful improvement in a
number of key efficacy outcomes in
HSDD.
• Clinically significant increase in female
sexual desire and reduces symptoms of
distress associated with HSDD ...

https://ovocabio.com/app/uploads/2021/06/201215_Ovoca-Bio-Corporate-Presentation-CSC_-updated-20210614.pdf

10th Oct 2019 7:00 am RNS Motif Bio confirms receipt of FDA meeting minutes
" ... As disclosed in the announcement on September 30, 2019, the minutes confirm that a single well-designed adequate and well-controlled Phase III clinical trial demonstrating safety and efficacy of iclaprim in patients with HABP, including VABP, along with data on potential mechanisms of hepatic injury, would enable submission of a New Drug Application for approval by FDA. It would take several years to enroll and complete a HABP/VABP Phase III trial and the cost is expected to be tens of millions of dollars. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MTFB/motif-bio-confirms-receipt-of-fda-meeting-minutes-j00e8jnrpc7tjqp.html

28th Jan 2020 7:00 am RNS Corporate Update
"...Motif Inc. has ceased all operations and has engaged Tamarack Associates to facilitate the sale of iclaprim and other assets of Motif Inc. In spite of a comprehensive outreach program, no transaction is currently pending for the sale of Motif Inc.'s assets and there is no assurance that there will be a transaction to monetise the assets. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MTFB/corporate-update-e3yvfliuke6mrl8.html

Whatever Iclaprim was valued at in the past, and has had spent on it, is largely irrelevant to its value now.

It will now be viewed as a rejected drug with toxicity concerns that needs tens of millions of dollars spent on it, in a process taking several years and with an uncertain outcome.

That's why there been no buyer after about a year and a half.

And anyone interested will know that they should be able to pick it up from administration for next to nothing.

Bob,

Funding for the mine would de-risk the share, and thereby justify a far higher valuation even before dilution.

So if you know that the funding is being provided, e.g. because you are the one providing it, that alone justifies paying a premium.

Thanks to Cyberbub on the ADVFN EML thread for this post that makes this point:

cyberbub 31 May '21 - 13:47 - 5288 of 5419 0 5 0
"I was also encouraged by Q13!
Q13: What is the possibility of an equity partner paying a premium to the currently depressed share price?
A strategic investor would likely come in at a premium. Simply by having one come forward, the share price would appreciate a reduction in the finance risk."
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=45179775&from=5288

Also remember that a strategic investor here would be putting in millions of pounds: there's no way they could buy that on the open market at anywhere near the current share price.

The similarities here with FAR are compelling, and I think that we are now very close to hearing funding news.

"There was never any chance of an alternative deal, not least because AIM time limits required an immediate delisting after the RTO ."

AMENDMENT:

AIM time limits required an immediate delisting after the RTO was aborted.

"We also need to figure out how we can sell or benefit from the US tax relief."

Robbertwo,

Not sure of the US rules, but in Britain the rules for quite a while have been tightened up.

My understanding is that tax losses can only be 'reused' if the existing board is the same, and the new business is the same type of business as the previous business.

And for small biotechs, profits are usually uncertain, and some way off if achieved at all.

Which means that any value from tax losses, even if allowed, is uncertain and some way off, so would have to be discounted massively.

This is why generally little or no value seems to be attributed to a shell's tax losses for a RTO.

Similarly, 'failed technology' such as a failed drug seems to sell for relatively negligible value compared to the amounts invested into it.

MTFB's main value was its listing which has now been lost.

In contrast MTFB's liabilities will have mounted up considerably.

Accrued deferred payments to directors, and aborted RTO costs, with no money now coming in from the RTO placing.

No listing means that there is little or no attraction for a RTO candidate, and in any case a RTO requires a lot of time and money to arrange.

In summary, administration looks like the overwhelmingly likely outcome here, and always did if the RTO was voted down.

There was never any chance of an alternative deal, not least because AIM time limits required an immediate delisting after the RTO .

In my opinion it's overwhelmingly likely that good news has leaked, given the pattern and volume of trading.

Good news likely being a big funding deal at at least about a penny or more.

And potentially well in excess of that, with warrants at even higher prices.

16th Feb 2021 7:00 am RNS Admission and First Day of Dealings
"... Upon Admission, the Company will acquire Kanabo Research Limited for an initial consideration of £15 million. The initial consideration is being satisfied by the issue of 230,769,210 new ordinary shares in the Company. In conjunction with Admission, the Company has raised gross proceeds of £6.0 million through an oversubscribed fundraising that is comprised of a placing and subscription, at an issue price of 6.5 pence per share. Upon Admission, the Company will have a market capitalisation (at the issue price) of approximately £23.4 million. Peterhouse Capital Limited acted as Broker and SI Capital Limited as Placing Agent to this fundraising. .."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KNB/admission-and-first-day-of-dealings-rxkd36kvebnl57g.html

Potentially this RTO could have been as good as the RTO of Kanobo into SOP (albeit the real gains might have taken a bit longer).

A RTO at 6.5p, and hitting 50p in the third day of trading.

That opportunity has now been lost, and shareholders here will probably lose everything.

Some will feel that's good value for giving the directors a bloody nose, and others will disagree.

That's democracy.

" ... even if the RTO target was prepared to any more for the shell, which they may not be prepared to. ... "

I mean pay any more for the shell, i.e. MTFB.

Compared to the cost of an IPO.

5th Jan 2021 7:00 am RNS Business Update
" ... Following its reclassification as an AIM Rule 15 cash shell in January 2020, the Company is required to make an acquisition which constitutes a RTO by 28 January 2021, failing which the Company's admission to trading on AIM may be cancelled. At this stage, there can be no assurance that the Company will be able to complete this or any other RTO transaction. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MTFB/business-update-i6m6xclt7ureu2v.html

Robblertwo,

Remember that under AIM rules, there are relatively short time limits to arrange a RTO.
MTFB has already been granted a four and a half month extension, probably because of COVID-19.

I don't see that there would be time to arrange a RTO with an alternative candidate.
And even renegotiating the current deal, and allowing for sufficient general meeting notice, would be challenging, even if the RTO target was prepared to any more for the shell, which they may not be prepared to.

The BOD seems to have recognised this, and so are delisting at 8a.m. tomorrow.

Corcel is like a combination of HZM (Horizonte Minerals) and MAST (Mast Energy), but with a significant vanadium project too.

1. CRCL's two nickel projects are each comparable to the Araguaia and Vermelho nickel projects of HZM (Horizonte Minerals).
And HZM's current market capitalisation at 6.7p is £113.91 million.
https://www.corcelplc.com/business-unit/battery-metals-exploration/

2. CRCL's three FGS (flexible grid solutions) projects are more than comparable to the FGS projects of MAST (Mast Energy).
And MAST's current market capitalisation at 12p is £22.63 million.
https://www.corcelplc.com/business-unit/flexible-grid-solutions/

= £136.54 million.

Divided by 384,787,601 CRCL shares in issue = 35.48p per CRCL share.

But this figure doesn't include CRCL's exciting vanadium project in Canada.
https://www.corcelplc.com/projects/dempster-vanadium/

And CRCL now has well over 100MW of FGS projects, well over double the 49MW of MAST.

In fact, re-reading the presentation, from 14th. May 2021, highlights just what an incredibly exciting growth company Corcel is, and so undervaued!

Here are a couple of extracts:

"Key Value Inflection Points
+ Burwell Financial Close
+ Tring Road Financial Close
+ Mambare Mining Licence Award
+ Secure WoWo Gap Synergies
+ Other Strategic Acquisitions"

"Multiple UK projects
under review for
sanction, including:
+ Gas Peaker Plants
+ Battery Storage Projects
+ Combined Heat
& Power Systems
+ Solar Projects"

https://www.corcelplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/20210514_CRCL_PPT_FINAL.pdf

"Corcel PLC @CorcelPlc · 2h
#CRCL #Battery #Storage #Energy
Flexible Grid Solutions Strategy
• @CorcelPlc
Flexible Grid Solutions division offers near-term cash flows through
development of UK based energy storage and flexible energy production sites
https://buff.ly/3fouuZh "

https://twitter.com/CorcelPlc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

A new tweet from CRCL this morning, copied above.

The tweet contains a link to CRCL's new presentation from a few weeks ago, but the wording of the tweet is new.

It's interesting that they're making near term cash flows such a core part of their FGS strategy.

CRCL's two nickel projects are each comparable to the Araguaia and Vermelho nickel projects of HZM (Horizonte Minerals).
And HZM's current market capitalisation at 6.95p is £118.16 million!

"JORC Resource of 162.5 million tonnes @ 0.94% Ni and 0.09% Co (1.53 million tonnes of nickel)"
https://www.corcelplc.com/projects/mambare/

"JORC Resource of 125 million tonnes @ 01.06% Ni and 00.07% Co (1.33 million tonnes nickel + 83k tonnes of cobalt)"
https://www.corcelplc.com/projects/wo-wo-gap/

"Horizonte is developing its 100% owned Araguaia Nickel Project (Araguaia) as Brazil’s next major ferronickel mine. ...
After an initial ramp-up period, the plant will reach a full capacity of approximately 900,000 tonnes of dry ore feed per year to produce 52,000 tonnes of ferronickel, in turn containing 14,500 tonnes of nickel per year. ...
Mineral Resource estimates for the nickel laterite deposits under consideration for the FS are shown in the table below. The Measured Mineral Resource estimated at a cut-off grade of 0.90% Ni, is 18 Mt at a grade of 1.44% Ni. The Indicated Mineral Resource is 101 Mt at a grade of 1.25% Ni. This gives a combined Mineral Resource of 119 Mt at a grade of 1.27% Ni for Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources at a cut-off grade of 0.90% Ni (inclusive of Mineral Reserves). ..."
https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/araguaia_project/#resources

12th Aug 2020 7:00 am RNS US$325m Senior Debt Facility Mandate for Araguaia
"Horizonte Minerals Plc, (AIM: HZM, TSX: HZM) ('Horizonte' or 'the Company') the nickel development company focused in Brazil is pleased to announce that it has executed a mandate to arrange a senior secured project finance facility of up to US$325 million (the "Mandate") to fund the construction and development of its Araguaia ferro-nickel project in Brazil ('Araguaia' or 'the Project'). ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HZM/us325m-senior-debt-facility-mandate-for-araguaia-uuicrt9dzsq1heg.html

HZM multibagged from below 2p just 14 months ago, to about 10p this winter.
I.e. from about the same s.p. as CRCL at the moment.
Though HZM has 1.7 billion shares in issue, well over four times as many as CRCL.

Monecor haven't notified CRCL of any share sales since 21st. January, so CRCL won't know if they have sold any more.

An overhang can often create a great buying opportunity, as the selling is the only thing holding the s.p. down.

Once the supply of shares dries up, the s.p. can move up very rapidly to a level that more properly reflects the company's real value.

Monecor's holding company, ETX Capital, was taken over by a Swiss company, Guru Capital, last October:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ETX_Capital

Though the acquisition only closed in April after receiving regulatory approval:
https://medium.com/guru-capital/guru-capital-completes-acquisition-of-etx-cyprus-26c7a9ba7652

This could explain why they have been selling.

There's been no recent holdings announcement from them, but sometimes compliance with these things can be lax.

Well done to those topping up.

One good, big piece of news could send this flying up to 3p.

Could be Burwell, could be Wo Wo Gap ... or could be something we don't even know about yet.

The undervaluation at 1.525p is compelling.

And the chart is looking nicely poised for a big move upwards.

Thanks for that, Rock.
You wouldn't expect them to give much away: they're too experienced and professional for that, and know that any major market-sensitive news should be communicated by RNS.
So a polite referral to the last update is all you're likely to get.