Member Info for HeadInTheSand

Agreed Strongman... I just wondered if there was any sign of a consensus amongst those still keeping the faith.

Out of interest - and this is I think a reasonable question, given the ongoing communication vacuum - at what point should PIs finally write this one down to experience?

I think many have already and that's of course their choice to make - but (amongst others) there are still a few genuine LTHers posting here who are still discussing potentially positive outcomes.

So how much longer should genuine PIs bother before finally bottom drawering their CTAG share certs and forgetting about them entirely? When should a line be drawn? End Q3? End 2019? End 2020? Never?

486th time lucky with your recommendation, GCCRa? Whaddya reckon?

Explanations on a postcard please...

I wonder if this bb allows screenshots?

https://i.ibb.co/YDDmBFy/Capture-1.png

Let's see if it does.

Okay let's try getting this timestamped.

Well I did refresh the page - and with a full CTRL + SHIFT + R and not just an F5. It's still here... let me try something....

Seriously, gentlemen? (And I use the word extremely loosely).

I know you're all good at denying the evidence in front of your eyes for various reasons, but this plumbs new lows...

Nope, not here Dougal.

I've only ever seen FP's ludicrous post on the Dreamwarrior's positivity?" thread.. and as I type this, it's still there as the third most recent post on that threads, timestamped at 7:42 today.. and in fact replied to by you at 8:08 and DBW at 8:43.

Take a look.

Dougal, what are you talking about?

Spikeyj's posts and Fruitpunch's post which I quoted from are all still sitting there in the "Dreamboatwarrior's positivity?" thread...

So, yesterday evening we have Spikeyj making the two following comments, both of which are particularly perceptive and accurate IMO:-

"...interesting that the shills seem more active at the moment -- perhaps more cash needed soon?"

and

"not so strange, dougal, for companies at this (lower, murkier) end of the stockmarket. --- company directors & related insiders, brokers/advisers, & the side kicks who help to push the stock to retail investors tend to do OK, while the pi punters who put up the money to buy into the ordinary shares lose."

And then this morning we have a brand new ID suddenly appearing... Fruitpunch, who out of the goodness of his heart has just joined LSE today just to reassure us all with his very first post as follows:-

"I have a connection with Amit's close friends and things are looking good for a buyout from J&J real soon.

Just tried to purchase more shares directly and it's no longer possible, which means things are wrapping up."

Seriously? Anyone's expected to fall for this? The old "mate of a mate down the pub" routine? Look, I can occasionally feel a sneaking admiration for a beautifully crafted and executed hustle... but this??? It's straight out of Playschool...

There is an alternative and IMO far more likely explanation though.

Perhaps RealAnalyst and several other previously supportative PIs have recently had a very painful lightbulb moment, following the company's - extremely suspect, it has to be said - sudden announcement of Brockham being a waste of time, despite what it had busily been assuring everyone (publicly at least) even only 4 days before dropping the bombshell.

As for the infamous "3000 bpd daily equivalent which had to be choked back to 1587" Balcombe comment also announced by ANGS - which was TwoFacedCoin's favourite thing to quote - last week's conference call reveals a rather different truth, namely that the company would be "delighted" if Balcombe produced just 300 bopd... so not exactly the previously estimated volumes.

And of course, by not making its planning application in a timely fashion, ANGS has (accidentally?) ensured that it's kicked the can further down the road and that Balcombe won't get truth-tested as to what it's actually capable of for many months to come...

For those who may be interested, there used to be a "shareholders' action group" but I think it fell apart after IMO being hijacked from the inside by a few very suspect individuals. It never seemed to achieve anything at all - to my knowledge at least - but maybe it's still going?

You'd know, Dougal...

Whereas it is of course fine for AVN to see if its infrastructure can provide anything of use to a nextgen cellular network like 5G...

...I'm (as ever) having issues with the appropriateness of satellite broadband-based backhaul to 5G. As some here will know, I've got the self-same issues with satellite and 4G, even though freely acknowledging AVN's ESN deal with EE here in the UK.

The following direct quote taken Here from cassius's posted link encapsulates my issue:-

"As part of the integrated setup, Avanti has installed a 1.2 m iDirect terminal providing satellite backhaul bandwidth (15Mbps downlink / 5Mbps uplink) through HYLAS 2 to the Limassol platform using Avanti’s Gateway Earth Station located in Cyprus."

Now, although I don't expect that 5G will get anywhere near its theoretical maximum speeds measured in Gigabits per second once deployed, it's reasonable to expect it will offer performance in the mid hundred Megabits per second in the real world - say 300-500 Mbps. So about 10 to 12 times that of existing 4G/LTE.

So how does providing backhaul at 15 Mbps have any relevance at all to 5G? Besides of course in the case of very short-term or emergency temporary deployments?

Oh and just to throw this chestnut in again. Existing 4G latency is typically around 30-40ms. 5G latency is expected to be about one tenth of that... so 3-4ms. And satellite? 300-400ms...

Cue Tyche... heh.

...and on the other hand, I suspect the reality is that the increasingly desperate rampity ramp brigade fall into two camps following yesterday evening's conf call.

First there's those who cannot face up to the fact that they've been entirely "misled by" ANGS and are hanging on in there, desperately clinging to any shred of confirmation bias they can find. I sympathise - been there myself before now.

And then there's those swing traders who've called it wrong with their recent purchases and now desperately need the SP to spike a little so they can get out unburned. Think TwoFacedCoin here.

Speaking of which, I note that TwoFacedCoin has suddenly stopped spouting his childish arithmetic over the last couple of weeks, which "proved conclusively" that ANGS was undervalued following the Brockham total fiasco. Unsurprising really, since one of the central planks of his "workings" was that Balcombe "flowed 1,587 bopd equivalent"... how many times did he keep banging on about that in his efforts to mislead the unwary?

Except following yesterday's conf call, we now know that the BoD's expectations on Balcombe seem to be for less than 20% of DHC's much pointed-at number, namely 300bopd (if you can even believe that - or indeed anything else they say).

And of course even that estimate won't begin to be truth-tested until well into 2020.... just like the Poundland gas field.

That's the important thing about running a company based on nothing but jam tomorrow... the management has to keep making sure that tomorrow never comes, or they'll get found out. If I were to be truly cynical, I'd suspect that their failure to reapply for planning permission on Balcombe was in fact quite deliberate... since it pushes the "put up or shut up" date for Angs further out into the future and thus kicks the can even further down the road. How convenient...

Just IMO...

...of course.

...for the new BoD and Kyle Williams, who I don't believe have put much of a foot wrong at all since taking over the tiller of HMS AVN. The fact that the SP is again plumbing new 52 week lows is not down to them and their actions in the least.

The question remains - can the new regime turn HMS AVN fast enough to avoid the massive and looming iceberg which Williams and his team of w*****s idiotically steamed full speed at (while happiy lining their own pockets in term sof salaries and share options to the tune of millions)?

Looking at the current SP, it seems that the market is not at all sure that the iceberg can be avoided, no matter how talented the current skipper may be. Legacy debt is a hard hard millstone to get one's neck out of...

But GL to KW anyway.

What's the point of referencing the deliberately misleading (and frankly laughably childish) maths of Double Headed Coin (follow his opinion and heads he wins, heads you lose)?

Anyone with an IQ bigger than their shoesize knows that DHC is merely and blatantly a short-term swing trader. He's done it on UKOG and he's attempting it here. All he and his ilk do is buy in, ramp the living bejaysus out of the share with a load of waffling BS, hoping to spike the unwary, so he can sell out into the micro-rise for a few percentage points of gain. Rinse and repeat - it's so depressingly obvious, hardly rocket science and his sort are ten a penny all over AIM.

Here's the only two things you can be sure of re DHC. If he's talking down a share, he's looking to buy in the short-term. If he's ramping it to the high heavens backed by primary school arithmetic and disingenuous comments like "1,587 BOPD equivalent", you can be certain he's looking to sell short-term and leave any too trusting and too naive PIs holding the bag.

Again, what's the most notable feature of a double headed coin? It's got two faces - could it be any more obvious?

Just IMO... of course.

DHC your childlike "maths" - which everyone knows is solely geared to mislead in your attempt to make a few percent off the too trusting - has already been shown to be an utter crock.

As has been said, the most obvious thing about a double headed coin is that it is two faced.

No kidding... perhaps it's time for you to get a new nick... or some new schtick. Either way, your true colours are boringly obvious.

Just IMO...

...of course.

Glad to see that a few here have their eyes firmly open and their heads screwed on.

Presumably it's occurred to everyone that the primary feature of a double-headed coin is of course that it has two faces?

GL to the genuine during the next few months' yo-yo-ing - oh and I mustn't forget to add...

"Just IMO"

and again for luck

"Just IMO"