RE: European gas prices surge24 Feb 2022 16:42
BV although it's rare these days, I entirely agree with you re DoD.
Re Saltfleetby, even with the latest Vladimir bonus to future gas pricing, the question remains - can ANGS get enough gas out of the ground in time? Even if it does to fulfil the hedge, it's going to need to produce a comfortable excess over and above the hedged volumes in order to benefit meaningfully from current futures pricing.
I would definitely rather be the lenders in this scenario, because they're on a win-win, come what may. On the one hand, if ANGS does produce enough gas in time, they're sitting pretty, because they get their capital repaid, plus 12.05% interest, plus an 8% revenue override. On the other, if ANGS doesn't, they get ownership of an asset that's grown in value potential and that's largely been commissioned that they can then sell to whoever they want. And if they are also on the other side of the hedge that they insisted upon as a condition of the loan, then they really are laughing.