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Noggers - agree. Seems like another down day unfortunately..

LoveACruise/GamblingAnalyst - Thank you for deleting your earlier post. Lets keep it civil

This is a free forum so I will post as I see it. Shame you feel the need to post such posts. This a a billion £ company and nothing that I post or you post can influence the share price here. There is a bull and bear case for every share. Feel free to filter me if you so wish but I won't be intimidated by you. When you post bear cases under you other names that is fine but god forbid for anyone else to do it! This is a forum to discuss the investment case for Carnival which is what I am doing. No need to personally attack others

LoveACruise/GamblingAnalyst - It is a high risk trade, not an investment currently. Same with oil price. Biden going to Saudi will cause some jitters but respected commentators on twitter saying the oil price isn't high on the agenda. More around security. Either way, the Saudi's don't think too highly of Biden and oil analyst been saying pumping more oil won't lower price as the issue is with refineries. The arab oil nations want a high oil price to recover their finances post covid. All this talk about 100-200% move here is ramping and you know it. If you are here for a 10-20% trade fair enough, just say it. No need to ramp

Not great. Oil price won't be helping their bottom line. The next 2 quarters bottom line results will be telling on whether they will default or not

Oil price ticking up won't be helping that bottom line

Just gone through the roof. Up 25%. Anyone know what happened?

Potentially redknight1 but £20 could be optimistic. May be a prepack administration buyout

Lets see how this plays out. Risk/reward here doesn't seem good for a company that can't generate cash at an operating level and swimming in debt after raising junk bonds

Ej - it is a very risky trade too. Expected 75 basis point interest rate hike by the FED tomorrow will adversely affect this. It is being shamelessly ramped by Aiminghigher4 on twitter and LoveACruise/GamblingAnalyst here

It will be although road to recovery that is for sure. This is a very high risk play. If in for a quick trade for a few % I can see it, but the talk of 100-200% is pie in the sky stuff at the moment IMO

Busted ;)

GamblingAnalyst - are you and LoveACruise the same person? Why the multiple profile?

LoveACruise - Don't believe it. They are burning through cash. They refer to adjusted EBITDA so will be interesting to see what gets adjusted out. Fuel costs set to rise and a cost of living crisis and recession looming. Demand will fall. HSBC have cut price target and if they continue making bottom line losses at the same level as Q1 for the next 3 quarters they will default. If you are here for the trade then fair enough but shouldn't ramp about 100-200% in a year or so when it could also potentially default on its debt in that time

Wow that is a big cut

Interested in your thoughts why this will be 100-200% higher in the year ahead? You holding for that or just for a trade? The way I see it, they aren't generating any cash at an operating level, swimming in debt and paying a ridiculous coupon rate of over 10%. Fuel costs are increasing further hitting their bottom line. What is the bull case?

GamblingAnalysis - ah okay so now you have changed your argument / analysis to compare cash generation relative to market cap / EV. Your previous points IMO are still wrong as you were arguing that €16m of FCF a month when producing c.7kboepd is not impressive in this current market. No need to change the parameters of the debate when you have been corrected. Let's leave it there

GamblingAnalyst - in which normal gas market would a c.7k boepd producer be generating €16m of FCF a month? If you think that can be achieved in a normal market then we can agree to disagree

Had a cash balance of €77m at year end. Cash balance is now €129m after buying €27m of bonds back. Suggests they have generated €79m in the first 5 months of the year so around €16m a month. A cash cow that GamblingAnalyst can't seem to have done the analysis on lol

We don't need you ramping and trying to create a spike to leave others in for you to then start deramping like you have done on other shares. This is a fundamentally sound share, the cash build will cause a re-rate by itself.