Member Info for Hawker

IPO price was 20p back in November 2020. Mills has subscribed for all placings since, including the recent one at 9p. This suggests his average is probably still close to 20p.

The shares could well be 20p plus later this year, following their attaining LCD via MolDX, and making ground with commercial sales/testing. Especially with the muscle and weight of Thermo Fisher behind them.

#watchthisspace

(31.12.24) - Dr. Keith Harris, Executive Chairman of the Company, commented: "We end the year 2024 with a healthy cash balance, a new investment in PLUG and as a shareholder in Voneus, which has an exciting year ahead as it makes ever greater progress in rural connectivity."

Updated NAV post the dilution from the Voneus round = 3.2p vs the current 0.6p.

Lower NAV but higher beta on successful outcomes for Voneus and now PLUG.

#keepcalmcarryon

Agreed.

Whatever the numbers, Management and Sales need to be incentivised to take KidneyIntelX to full national commercial adoption. If they can capture just 1% of the estimated 14m ".dkd" qualifying patients, that's over $100m in revenues.

I appreciate that Renalytix needs to demonstrate they can walk before they run. However, we're much closer to this becoming a reality now, and I look forward to their updates as we head into 2025.

It's important to note that KidneyIntelX is included in the KDIGO kidney health guidelines. This implies a much broader adoption around the globe, well, eventually. I would like to think that Renalytix have this in their ambitious sights as they roll out across the US. It would be a very welcome recovery of shareholder value for those who've been invested since the IPO.

Happy New Year to all and here's to RENX learning how to run once more!

Good to see the shares coming off their recent lows, and with some volume. I think the risk profile is arguably now skewed to the upside for Verici as we head into 2025 in earnest. The primary catalyst is Local Coverage Determination (LCD) for Tutivia, which the company is applying for via the MolDX program. The company is waiting to hear back after they responded to feedback from their initial application (Oct-24). I understand this should now be a matter of when and not if... I also think it's fair to assume a 90-day review cycle, so probably mid to late Jan-25 seems likely; well, let's see!

It's probably also sensible to consider Verici a potential beneficiary, alongside Renalytix (RENX), from any fast-track legislation coming from the Trump camp, which might promote diagnostics and prognostics to expedite improved health management and outcomes.

If any of this happens, it's not inconceivable to see the shares recovering their IPO price sometime this year.

Happy New Year to all VRCI shareholders and posters!

DYOR & GLA!

Https://www.barrons.com/articles/ozempic-weight-loss-novo-nordisk-stock-lilly-491aae61

Interesting article in Barron’s last week covering Ozempic’s possible GLP-1 drug classification sometime in 2025. Well worth the read.

My two cents here is that we could see the Health Insurers fast-tracking prognostic KidneyIntelX to help manage the risk of ballooning prescription costs and ensure those that need the drugs get them promptly vs those that would like them for simple weight loss.

Feels like KidneyIntelX is trending up.

Interesting to see the RNS on UBS WM picking up 5% of the company earlier this week. This combined with the Director purchases in the recent placing and the subsequent market purchases suggest confidence is rising about the sales and testing numbers. They have clear line of sight on these and I look forward to seeing the results as and when they next update.

Risk profile seems to suggest upside now greater risk than downside, well, let’s see.

Net net, I certainly wouldn’t be short here.

I’m not sure either want to get directly into medical prognostics or diagnostics. However, I do think it’s feasible they look to incorporate kidney health into their health monitoring apps and this could significantly raise the profile and demand for KidneyIntelX and other related products.

I think it’s time to put the past behind us and look at RENX with fresh eyes. The company is seemingly on the path to recovery (finally). The valuation vs the size of the opportunity suggests RENX offers a compelling risk/reward profile. Yes, there’s still risk, however, the company has significantly de-risked their business and is wholly focussed on making new sales, partnerships and delivering growth in KidneyIntelX testing across the US.

What’s not to like at 9.5p, or £30m valuation vs the $13bn opportunity (14m US eligible T2D diagnosed healthcare members).

Still early days, but let’s see what the company delivers on the results front over the next few quarters.

GLA and DYOR

…and so it begins, finally!

Onwards to their next trading update :)

Agreed, Director buying is welcome (in any size), but a materially positive trading update would be even more welcome.

It’s a start, and I understand they all participated in the placing at 9p recently too, including newly joined NED Robert Naylor.

Looks like green shoots may be appearing… They have clear visibility on testing volumes, sales and new contract negotiations. With their focus on sales, reaching breakeven and dare I say, profitability ASAP, my two cents is that it’s probably worth adding a few at 7p-9p from a risk-reward perspective.

The company has been priced as a basket case for quite sometime, arguably, rightly so. If they’re actually turning a corner and have clear line of sight on reaching breakeven and beyond, then there’s a case to be made for a re-rating here.

Maybe, just maybe, this is the turning point for Renalytix.

Probably not quite there yet, but as we head into Q1 next year, we should start to see testing volumes ramping.

If so, we could well see their cash runway extending beyond the stated 12 months.

About time this company turned a corner!

Actually I am a holder of Verici since the IPO at 20p, I have added more since and bought some this past week at 4p. The price is not an indicaor of value in this market, it is driven by very low liquidity and an apparent buyers strike. This is seemingly down to fears about what may come from the Budget, probably unfounded but whipped up by the Telegraph and others. Was it overpriced at 10p, is it over or underpriced at 4p? The price is not an indication of value of the company in this market, it is an indication of the price of liquidity (and whether the company will have access to capital in the future). Who is selling at this level and why? Funds are not active here, only retail investors, just look at the average daily volumes of around £10k per day. I will add more at 2p for sure, if it gets there.

Ps, roll on Budget Day, let's get past all this ludicrous uncertainty being whipped up by the Telegraph and their cohort.

Completely agree with you SB, buy, hold and tuck away in the back book. So much opportuniuty and value to be found in companies like Verici, Renalytix, Oxford Biodynamics, etc. Just need to have small positions, be patient and wait for the upturn in Life Sciences. This has been a particulalry brutal downturn, nothing that hasn't been seen before.

Agreed, that’s the downside of these small caps, no point trying to push water uphill when there’s a seller about!

That’s a good spot Gotrader, and we may have found the clearing price for size in IQE. There’s been a seller for months, no RNS yet but once they’re done selling we’ll soon find out who’s been sitting on the offer side weighing down the shares.

Risk/reward feels ok at this level, my in price is still around 19p, happy to sit and wait for the recovery to play out, or not, as the case may be.

Seems an overreaction to me as the business is in a better place than a year ago, but there’s no sense fighting it until the seller is done. One to put on the back burner and revisit early next year me thinks.

Thanks @GoTrader, it’s ok my average is 19p, I sold some above 30p and then bought a few of those back last week, clearly should have sold a good few more but I’m a happy holder as see this recovering nicely in 2025 and still think there’s room for positive surprise in the meantime. Key to all these small caps is to have small position and look to scale up once the direction of travel is clear.

H1 vs H2 2023 Financial Summary (excerpt from the FY23 results, 10th April 2024)

The table below illustrates the significant recovery that IQE experienced in H2 2023.

H1 2023 H2 2023 Change

£m £m (%)

Revenue 52.0 63.3 21.7

Adjusted EBITDA (5.7) 10.0 275.4

Reported operating loss (19.6) (6.2) 68.4

Direction of travel suggests return to profit is underway.