Member Info for Hawker

Kainos is starting to attract a bit more attention, wonder if this was MAN/GLG Partners active again, let's see what comes out over the next few days...

Thanks for the info re: Marlborough/Canaccord, hadn’t appreciated that. I’m not too worried about the employee share issue, it’s only 1.6% of the issued share capital and the key employees should be incentivised to help the company realise its potential in the compound space, but yes better that any such awards are tied to success and not just for turning up to work.

Interesting to see Richard Griffiths adding to his position in IQE this past week, alongside Marlborough Fund Managers and Canaccord Genuity, the only seller seems to be Citi and they're now down to just over 5% and that could well get taken out by Mr Griffiths, he's usually a smart cookie and I'm happy 'following the smart money' on this one... Senior management team now comprises a CEO and CFO from Global Foundries, I'm watching this space with interest and have added a few more shares at 20p this past week.

Good to see the resilience of the shares as they rebound from the recent sell-off, looks like Baillie Gifford took the opportunity and increased their stake and the shares are now hovering around their 200dMA at 1171p, think we could see a break to 1400-1500 if they manage to break above this... Kainos is one of the few decent-sized UK companies that are benefitting from the revolution in AI and ML... Happy to own this for the next 5-10 years.

@jlovie - not sure why the short positions had that red circle, no updates since Dec 11th, best to check with shorttracker.co.uk as that’s usually more comprehensive.

...good to see the shares playing catch-up this week, one of the few UK listed companies that compete with the large US/Global players, WorkDay recurring revenues are growing thick and fast too, roughly twice the growth rate of the core govt contract business, what's not to like? GLG are short about £10m, not for long one speculates...

..think they'll be pushing on many open doors in terms of kidney transplant centres, once they have the first clinicians using Clarava in a real-world live environment the word will spread, trusted sources couching for the product will only help leverage any sales efforts.

Got it Cliveas, ouch… I’m in around 20p from the IPO and a few more since, I did manage to add a few arlund the 7p level, not that it improved my average much!

Onwards ho then!

Agree re: use of funds, though what represents a great price then, if not 9p? and great for who?

...fully funded through 2026, by which time Thermo Fischer will have a full 360 view on the present and future value of Verici's game changing suite of diagnostic/prognostic tests for kidney transplants in a real-world/commercial market setting. How long do we give them before they get bid for?

I have added some at 9p this morning and will take up all my allocation in the Retail Offer for sure.

Happy days, finally a decent company getting the funding it deserves!

...yep, completely agree, this is a big deal in this market, huge vote of confidence from existing and new investors at this lowly valuation! Other deals are being priced at significant discounts, 9p is practically flat on the past week and my view is that it's a discount to where the shares should be trading on the Thermo Fischer news, 15-20p. In a normal market, where future growth has value, the shares would easily be 40p+

Jump in, the water's warm!

...this should firmly remove any concern or doubt about funding and runway, as the company will be funded well into 2026, giving them plenty of time to leverage their newly contracted licensing deal with Thermo Fischer and exploit their existing product pipeline and IP, onwards ho then!

Well done for hanging in there SB, I continue to hold as there seems little sense in selling down here, however, like the market, I’m waiting to see news about material adoption and take up before being prepared to upsize.

It’s been a long five years, think there’s still a reasonable chance of a strategic partnership, like the one struck between Verici and Thermo Fischer, but again it’s a buy the actual news event rather than speculate…

...quite likely they crossed over at GF, if not, they'll certainly have plenty of mutual connections from their time there, even though they only overlapped Feb19 to Dec20.

it's a small world at that level for sure.

...another solid update today, FuD now topping £58bn... CURO software steadily gaining momentum and client and FA user numbers still on the up, what's not to like here?

...CFO hire looks timely and should add confidence and weight to the senior management team, according to LinkedIn Jutta spent 10 years at AMD (Dresden), 12 years at Global Foundries (US) and the last 2 years at Intel Foundry. Well connected then.

...as far as I understand it they're now funded until mid 2025, assuming zero sales, so my view is that they'll start to see early interest from their Clarava launch via TMO in Q2, and given how well positioned Thermo Fischer are across the US, Kidney Centres and Hospital systems, we should expect to be positively surprised. If so, they may move fairly quickly to break-even thereafter and any funding that follows could or should be for growth (not survival) capital.

Well that's my two cents, one to own and tuck away in the back book and revisit when the newsflow from the Q2 launch picks up... This said, and in the meantime, they may well go on to announce further license deals for Tutivia and Protega once they have that up and running.

..drivel and pump and dumpers aside, Verici looks set to pick up testing momentum heading into the second half, as sales via Thermo Fischer are scheduled to get underway during Q2. I would expect a fair bit of news flow around the start of that process and assuming sales go well then perhaps the shares can move to recover their IPO price of 20p and build further from there.

Regarding potential testing volumes, there were reportedly ~25k kidney transplants in the US in 2022 and the company usually references an annual number of 20k for the US, conducted across the 200 or so kidney transplant centres.

"In 2022, a record 25,498 kidney transplants were performed in the US, according to the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS)."

Assuming Thermo Fischer has full coverage of the kidney transplant centres and a steady adoption of the Verici testing suite, would it be cautious to estimate 1-3% in their first year, so 250-750 transplants? How many tests per transplant, 1-3? So an initial guide range of 250-2250 tests at $2,650 per test? This implies a gross revenue range of $663k to £$6m at full rate.

Thinking further ahead let's assume they achieve a market share of say 15% in Year 2 and maybe a bullish 30% in Year 3... Again, assuming a testing rate per transplant of 1-3 then this implies a revenue range of $10m-$30m for Year 2 and $20m-$60m for Year 3.

I have no clue if any of this is possible, or realistic, but what I like about it is the low end numbers easily underpin the current valuation and therefore any positive surprise to this suggests plenty of upside and who knows what level of activity and testing adoption rates lead to Thermo Fischer progressing their relationship with Verici to a full acquisition/take over?

Net net, 10-11p or market cap of £18m (no debt and £5m+ cash) looks like a good opportunity to me!

Nb, I have been a holder since they IPO'd back in 2020, sold a few into the spike around 60-80p and have been steadily buying those back and more over the past year.

GLA and DYOR!

…in the meantime, Verici’s trading rather quietly given they’re on target to begin sales through their licensing deal with Thermo Fischer in Q2.

Just a matter of time before this one moves up a gear me thinks…

…actually the company could well surprise positively with news about their first material enterprise deal with a health insurer, which could well get them to break even as was discussed during their last update. They guided towards year end so it’s arguably overdue… if so, the shares could well head back towards the IPO price, even half of that would be a multi-bagger from here, silly cheap, but only if they get to closing material deals, else it’s just a cash burn story…