Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
"On 30 September 2020 FUD totalled £41,093 million, representing an increase of 3.5% over the quarter and an increase of 8.7% over the year."
Alex Scott, CEO, said:
"Our 2020 financial year ended on 30th September. During the second half, the operating environment was difficult and unpredictable for us, for our clients, and for their advisers - and this seems likely to remain the case in the coming months.
Nevertheless, and in no small part due to the resilience and dedication of all involved, I am pleased to report robust flows.
Compared to our 2019 financial year, gross and net inflows held their own and we ended the year with our highest ever level of funds under direction."
The news out this morning is fairly huge for RenalytixAI, the Provider Transaction Access Number ("PTAN") essentially gives KidneyIntelX access to over half the patient population in the US who are deemed to be potentially "At-Risk" of having kidney disease and it develop into end-stage renal disease. See RNS for full details. Not long now before this little gem is able to start wide-spread distribution of KidneyIntelX testing which should then result in rapid revenue accumulation, watch this space ! This is all IMHO of course.
It makes sense this share should have come down in line with the market sell-off, at least initially, but then you remember the revenues are comprised of both transaction and custody fees, their platform is of course called Transact. Just think of the spike in transactions since mid to late February, I wouldn't be surprised to hear of a significant jump in revenues in their Q2 trading statement due April 21st and their Interim results due May 21st. IMHO this company should continue to outperform wider markets.
Sorry, this is yet another disappointing report from a management team that have only ever under delivered on ever decreasing hopes and projections. Such a shame as they clearly have great products but how many promises of jam tomorrow can you take before realising there is no jam ? This company needs a new management team if it is to realise its potential.
Thanks for the insight Rivaldo, there's no doubt this stock is cheap the question is why there's so little interest from the fund managers ? There are some great funds involved like Blackrock, Aberforth, Schroders and Aberdeen but very little movement in ownership over recent years. I would think this a great time for other funds to get involved given the hiccup in technical plastics and the subsequent discount to market rating, the company would do well to have an investor roadshow and talk about their US acquisition, Strategy for growth, etc. (i post this in case they read these chat boards, lol).
Let's see what the company says on the 14th, would be good to hear positive noises and maybe an earnings surprise to match. This share should be �2+ given the earnings momentum so over to Mr Malley !
Pondering some of the comments below I thought to go through the archives on Carclo as I recall it was the big institutional investors who pushed CAR to develop CIT rather than take the bid money back in 2012. That's the real tragedy but hopefully one that will keep the company on the straight and narrow by focussing wholly on their core competencies and markets. See article from IC: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2012/06/12/shares/news-and-analysis/ink-jet-business-is-carclo-s-new-core-SHtxpCs1WDxsZ3J1lwCo0I/article.html
thanks for this Rivaldo, much appreciated. It's probably good to remind ourselves that Carclo is a manufacturing business and therefore prone to bumps like this, I for one like how they've focussed on their core strengths and competencies. It takes years to build such leadership and market share with constant investment. My view is that over time this will make them attractive to larger players wanting to play in this segment, the pension issue will need to be resolved for that to happen of course. The shares are trading at a significant discount because of this so a focus from the company on mitigating their deficit somehow could reduce the discount and see the shares once again in the 200s.
I see this as the stock having a healthy correction following its ramp up from the 180p level late last year, the company has come a very long way since the dark days of 2012/13 when it was heavily debt-laden and cut its dividend to zero. The stock is trading on 8.6x current year and next year earnings, after the analyst downgrades so it remains silly cheap and attractive as a take-over target. The stock is not that liquid with a mkt cap of £300m and therefore prone to price overreaction (on low volumes) to news like this which states results will be broadly in-line with expectations, Pullman has also been a drag on earnings for as long as I recall so that's not new news particularly. I have added into weakness, having sold some above 280p on the rally.
Interesting to see EVA Dimensions also rating Carclo a Buy this morning (from Hold), alongside Peel Hunt, Finncap and N+1 Singer which makes it a full house. Price targets are 200p PH, 165p FC and 175p N+1, none given from EVA. Company presentation to analysts has gone very well it seems, let's see if the shares can make any sustainable progress above the 150p level.
Fantastic set of results from Carclo with all divisions performing "strongly", so what's holding the shares back from hitting new highs ? Both peel Hunt and N+1 Singer have upgraded their price targets this morning to 200p and 175p respectively and yet the stock continues to struggle at the 150p level. Looking at the order book most trades are into the bid so far today and therefore sales, this is often the case on good news days for Carclo and it's a head scratcher given the ongoing positive momentum in their earnings. The only apparent headwinds are the pension deficit and the lack of dividend which is expected to resume in 2018/19, assuming the pension deficit is comfortably under control by then. I continue to think the shares would be above 200p without these headwinds but even they are now becoming less of an issue so why are we not sitting comfortably above 150p plus today ? It's a head scratcher for sure !
Some of the volumes that have gone through could simply be inter-fund transfers, probably the larger trades as they would have triggered RNS announcements if they were actual sells/buys. Full year results must be out soon looking at the previous calendar and following the recent trading statements they should be very good. If so we should then see further broker upgrades.
I agree with your sentiment about the dividend being small but it's the pension deficit that has effectively offset all the growth and more which explained the down move and negative sentiment, if this gets fully resolved then the shares should of course attract a higher growth multiple or P/E rather than the heavily discounted one at present.
I think corporate bond yields will need to rise above their levels from Sep last year and then some, the pick up in inflation is also partly offsetting the rise in yields so their liabilities are likely still round the £25-30m deficit level. The company will probably also want some comfort above these levels to be confident of reinstating the dividend else they may be forced to cut it again if the problem resurfaces. It's moving in the right direction but the rises in inflation are stalling the positives here, alas.
"Since the EU Referendum result on 23 June 2016, corporate bond yields have decreased materially in the UK and as this yield is used to discount the Group's IAS 19 pension liability the deficit has increased to £42.6 million net of deferred tax at 30 September 2016 (prior year deficit of £18.9 million at 31 March 2016) Scheme assets have increased by £5.5 million since 31 March 2016 and scheme liabilities have increased by £33.6 million" - UK Gilt and Corporate Bond yields have recovered just over half their respective falls since end Sep to which the above statement refers, this would suggest the deficit should now be around £30m (vs £42.6m). If so, this would echo the comment below from Rivaldo about the deficit shrinking by about a quarter. It all helps but this has become a case of the tail wagging the dog which is deflecting from the real growth story at the top-line, annoyingly. - If yields continue to recover and inflation doesn't pick up too much we could see a recovery in the deficit to more manageable levels in which case the retained cash from the recently cancelled dividend could find it's way back to shareholders at some point.
Gilt and UK corporate yields are back at their July levels which should give some relief for the pension deficit of Carclo, among others. Would be useful to see what 10bps in Gilt yields does for their deficit, let's see if that gets coverage in the upcoming update. I suspect the recent move could mean the recent cancelled dividend may yet sit in their bank account in lieu of potentially being paid into the pension, or not if yields continue higher and thus a return to divi payments may come sooner than analysts are expecting.
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/carclo3 Carclo's recent H1 trading update is encouraging, except for the frustrating news that VW is delaying its flagship Phaeton vehicle, which will now be launched as an all-electric vehicle. The short-term impact on our forecasts is not immaterial but the share price reaction appears overdone. In our initiation note we identified Carclo’s earnings multiples discount against its UK comparators with established growth stories. We think the extent of the discount is unjustified and see the long-term story remaining firmly intact, but accept that, although the delay is not of Carclo’s making, it may now take a bit longer to close the gap. PT 175p