Member Info for HawaiifiveO

I have added recently as I see this as the bottom, news is expected and the share price still responds to modest buying pressure, IG have been quoting decent premiums for only £5k of stock, at times it has even been tricky to buy just £500 worth.

If you look at the chart there have been 4 significant price spikes, from current levels, after a period of low price consolidation in the last 12 months, twice the price doubled, we are currently in a consolidation phase.

Let's see what happens next !

Well for what is worth I have taken some more, it is interesting that IG were quoting a large premium for just £5k of shares (.127p) and for larger sizes they went to .15p, that encouraged me.

I have read a few Twitter posts suggesting the market makers are unwilling to trade larger sized purchases with stock so lowly priced, maybe we have reached sector bottom, the average sector 2 year fall is approaching 80% for these minnows.

IF recovery starts the moves up will be dynamic.

ORR is down 95%, yes 95% from the high of Q1 2021 - this chart shows Oriole as the 2nd worst performer from a selection of 44 UK listed sector juniors.

Interestingly the all time low here was 0.09p and soon after the share price doubled.

https://twitter.com/Oilplayer2009/status/1699025851063365745?s=20

If anyone thinks that drilling/exploration success will deliver any major upside here look no further than today's RNS from CGNR - 6000 metres drilling carried out, new discoveries, good grades + an existing JV with a Fortune 500 company in Dimir Export, the share price has hardly moved + they have a exploration target of 8m ounces of Gold.

In todays market the only thing that draws a re-rate is corporate action, sale of assets, or a significant cash injection from a third party, it is necessary for companies to break the spiral of dilution.

We are still in a very aggressive sector bear market where most micro caps equity is valued no more than option money, companies that have failed to deliver or where management have attracted poor sentiment have been severely punished as a result.

Really positive news-flow is needed here to break the stranglehold on the share price, will it come ?

For those doubting there is no interest in ODX why was todays RNS the most viewed on a very popular platform, it will only take one piece of positive news or change in sentiment for this to multi bag.

The bashers are here for a reason.

https://twitter.com/aimrns/status/1697632921748652138?s=20

The share consolidation will really set the cat among the pigeons as it will allow ODX to see exactly who is on the share register, in particular anyone hiding behind nominee accounts (especially overseas) who may be building a stake under the radar.

In my view the name change and share consolidation is good news, if any bid is going to occur the time window is closing quickly, those 4p warrants expire in early November, this leaves ODX wide open for a bid without 90m more shares for any prospective bidder to concern themselves over.

Interesting times.

Presentation and Q&A today

https://tinyurl.com/4jwjjkyk

You could write a book about the goings on with ORR but keeping things up to date it is very fair to say that absolutely no-one expected them to issue 1 billion shares to anyone so soon after EC's £200k share purchase in April combined with her statements about the negative effects of dilution/placings in the Annual Report. Yes the share price rallied strongly when that was announced which shows how sensitive the market is to ongoing dilution, this is why most sector juniors are 'rolling shorts'

The BOD have strongly implied they expect the share price to strengthen, well let's assess the reality of what could happen. If they believe further exploration success will do the trick then no way will this re-rate the stock in current market conditions in my considered opinion, a number of AIM juniors have continually reported more discoveries and their share prices have not moved one iota.

Moving on, the only things the market seems impressed by is cash, ability to raise finance outside of dilution, or corporate activity, so will the project finance from the Canadian sector deliver upside, probably yes, $1m is tiny but it may improve sentiment towards the team as it would show they are capable of sourcing external finance.

Revenue has been hinted at, it is possible they could set up some form of alluvial mining in Cameroon with a third party, XTR have been doing this for many years bringing in around $200k a quarter with a Chinese company doing the paying to set it all up. The question is can this team deliver such an operation, at XTR they have Colin Bird who has worldwide contacts and proven ability to do deals.

The other areas are in Senegal, what is going to happen there, by end Q1 next year I believe the JV ends with the partner, this would mean ORR are left with a 30% interest moving forward, could this be sold, if not what will happen. It is worth noting the old Stratex and now ORR (via the JV) have spent circa £10m over 10 years with nil share price recognition - so again if they cannot deliver value from 470 sq km licence in Senegal it begs the question is Cameroon a bridge too far.

Basically it is down to them to prove the naysayers wrong, however, whichever way you look at it the share price has fallen from .90p around the time TL took over in Q1 2018 to the current .10p, one of the worst performers in the junior space. There could be life changing upside here from current levels IF they can deliver something out of the box.

Time will tell, I re-iterate I think the bottom is in and it's probably worth a punt, the sector has to turn up at some point, it has been in decline for 2.5 years, the worst downside on record.

News is needed.

This stock is hideously oversold, the last time the RSI was at current levels (21) was back in 2019, four years ago !

It is due a strong technical bounce therefore.

This does look like it wants to move higher, the RSI is turning up from very oversold territory, maybe just maybe the shares can bounce back strongly, the stock was trading around .20p in mid July.

Interesting that, at times, it is quite hard to buy in size, this suggests the market makers are cautious that a strong move could occur so they play carefully.

What are the positive catalysts over the next few months the interviewer asks TL, watch at 9 mins 25 seconds to TL's movement, scratches head before answering, does that inspire anyone with confidence ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPoGgb0_AAI&t=110s&ab_channel=CoreFinance

Have been posting on LSE since 2011, never had a post removed before, let alone 3, if entities cannot stand the heat then get out of the kitchen, but no chance of that.

What did they seriously expect shareholders to do after entering death spiral finance with a provider the majority of the retail investment community knows to be toxic, jump up with joy and praise the BOD having issued 1 billion shares for a unknown sum of cash which, almost certainly, will be significantly under the implied £1.7m, worry not folks only another 24 months for them to create value, been waiting 5 years already - none so far.

As the post by Kutzz suggests it is likely they will barely receive £30k in the first monthly tranche, a long way from £74k as purported in the RNS.

Illusions of grandeur come to mind here, vast swathes of land with a thimble full of cash, even Barrack would struggle to create value from such licences.

Another situation where the RSI is sitting at a 18 month low meaning the shares are seriously oversold and due a bounce from a technical perspective.

Looks good for a trade therefore.

DYOR etc.

The stock looks very oversold from a technical perspective with the RSI the lowest since January 2019 - there should be a decent bounce therefore.

Today's news could be the catalyst given the canceled funding was VWAP based, basically a death spiral is no longer.

I see the bashers are still at it 24/7, tick tock the takeover countdown clock slowly draws to November when the 4p warrants expire, then ODX is a wide open for a cheap opportunistic offer.

What price will the bid be pitched at one wonders, it has to be north of 10p a share, even then that would only value ODX at a mere £24m, the last broker note suggested the company was materially undervalued to peers.

No wonder the shares are becoming increasingly hard to acquire, IG are asking a premium for just £3k of stock currently, the bashers will have to work harder or their masters will not be happy.

The bashers will find anything to turn into a negative, that is what they are here for, prodding and probing questions to holders 'what is your average' how much are you down', what they really mean is how much should the bid be placed at 5p/10p/15p etc etc.

Once those warrants are out of the way in early November the company is wide open to be taken out, their work will have been completed, in the meantime they will continue their agenda. Remember none of them hold any ODX shares yet operate on here 24/7 bashing away, have seen it all before.

If this company was valued at £50m+ there may be some argument it is overvalued but at £6m m/cap, with £5m in the bank and, as reported, the order book growing and margins expected to increase no way. The bashers hate positivity, it does not suit their agenda one iota.

The last broker note offered a target price of 12p, but more importantly suggested ODX was materially undervalued to peers. FACT !

The stock is a BUY, the BOD have bought 2.3m shares this year despite being in a close period for much of the time, follow the money !!

DYOR etc.

CEO buys 296,000 shares, these guys are the not the type to throw money away, still think this company will be acquired, almost certainly the offer will come when those 90m 4p warrants expire in early November.

In the meantime the bashing from entities working 24/7 will continue.

No doubt this post will be labeled farcical, just as farcical as the rubbish being spouted by the 24/7 bashers, their masters must be pleased with them, except a takeover approach is a real possibility given the value disconnect to peers.

Have been adding.

Worth a read, it suggests there has been some success stories..

Since 2007 we have completed over 70 new equity placings, and by conducting our business ethically have earned a longstanding positive reputation in the market. We have targeted £100 million to invest across our global network.

Lanstead’s investment, with our accompanying sharing agreement, is targeted to support a company’s monthly cash requirements to drive key growth and news flow milestones that will positively impact the company’s share price.

Our investment criteria

Invest in listed business worldwide with particular focus on the LSE/ AIM and the TSX

Invest between £1 million and £15 million per placing

Deploy funds across a wide range of sectors globally, including technology, natural resources, healthcare/life sciences and renewables

Management must be able to demonstrate how Lanstead’s funds could support growth

Will consider meaningful shareholdings, up to 29.9% for LSE / AIM

Many of the companies with Lanstead on the shareholder register have benefited substantially from the accompanying sharing agreement, receiving more cash than the original placement proceeds without having to issue any additional shares. We have a strong team with a proven track record that comes from a wide range of backgrounds including global investments, fund management and corporate broking.

All the .117p stock has gone, now they are asking .124p for just £300 worth of shares.

The needle of the dial is turning up !

The spread is wide however they only have £4k of shares at .117p and then move to .125p thereafter, this would suggest that stock is limited to the buy side currently, as I suggested before I feel the floor may be in around current levels.

I suspect it would not take much volume to move it back to the .15p/.18p range, Lanstead need to play the game carefully as other juniors have pulled out of these deals almost as quickly as they were announced.

Let's see where this goes, news is needed in some form to stimulate interest and volume.

DYOR etc.

I would suggest that if there is some stability in the share price combined with no large sell trades declared late then a few may start tipping their toes back into the water and buy allowing the share price to recover.

Worth noting there is very strong chart support at current levels and the RSI has turned up slightly from very oversold levels - some news from the company would assist the process.

DYOR etc