Member Info for HawaiifiveO

In February 2021 Oriole hit a market valuation of £31m, the rise caused by excellent market conditions, undervaluation to peers and a swathe of corporate activity near the Senala licence where ORR had a very strong foothold, in fact one of the largest licence areas in country.

The current market cap is now only £6m, recent news includes 2 JV's in Cameroon, hopefully to be closed imminently + we all know that the Senala JV terminates end February and the betting is, somewhat telegraphed by management, a stake sale would be their preferred option.

It is very clear Oriole is materially undervalued, this has been the case for some time but now there are significant price driving catalysts ahead, I suggested the stock will become increasingly hard to acquire in size due to these imminent news catalysts and that has proving to be the case.

A share price of .50p would deliver a market cap of only £19m, if all ducks line up with new high grade discoveries, 1p a share cannot be ruled out over the next 12 months, more-so if the Senana stake could be sold for cash IRO £5m/£10m + retaining a generous royalty interest.

I believe by end Q1 the share price will be multiples of the current .16p therefore.

DYOR etc.

I suspect Lanstead have stopped their selling, it is a good sign that they have dumped 200m shares with the price holding up in the period, that is 20% of their position in only 4 months.

With so much material news imminent now is the time to get into ORR, the share price move early doors suggests the market is ready to start to re-rate the stock.

It will become increasing harder to get in at current levels at the clock ticks down into Q1.

I see a few Twitter 'names' are buying into GROC at this currently depressed level. With only 168m shares issued it will not take much to propel the share price higher.

Possible $1.5m in cash to Oriole by end January at latest.

Two due diligence processes are underway, one ending on 31st of this month, it will bring in a initial $500k to Oriole, it is possible this RNS could be in the pipeline for tomorrow or by next Tuesday.

Obviously if this proceeds confidence will be high for the next one which ends on 31st January, will bring in a further $1m.

The next event will be the potential sale of the 30% Senala stake, a decision being made by end February, as previously mentioned this could come sooner, the monetary value unknown other than £6m/£7m has been spent by ORR to date.

No wonder it is hard to buy in any size, such is the nature of AIM I suspect many are unaware of the situation, keen followers of the company are currently at an advantage right now therefore.

Worth noting the shares nearly trebled on the last major news RNS !

Shorts getting well and truly burnt, cannot buy a stitch online currently, 15p+ close ?

I have to say that I find recent market maker activity exceptionally strange over the last couple of months, there are long periods of time when they shut off online buying (normally around .15p offer) then move the offer price up to .18p or even .19p and then drop it again even if buys come in at higher levels.

The floor appears to be .15p offer, it is rarely possible to buy below this number.

I can only conclude, on the one hand they have their eye on Lanstead and on the other are aware that numerous news events are imminent. The crescendo being the possible sale of the Senala stake which could fetch more than the current m/cap alone, end February is the end stop date but news could come sooner on this.

I think the next few weeks could get very interesting as speculation/interest builds, I see little downside from current levels however they wish to play it.

The only folks who will get shafted are those who are short and have been predicting doom and gloom infinitum, it seems clear the cornerstone investors remain supportive from today's news, the project remains Tier 1 and high value.

Post from the other place and new comment on AYM

New interview with Alan Green, AYM selected as a share to watch in 2024

'Parys Mountain worth 6p/7p a share alone'

https://youtu.be/k1CgYhyNXAM?feature=shared

AYM featured 27 minutes in.

It is clear with a very large Spreadbet position entities have a financial interest to try and move the price one way or the other hence the hysterical bashing when the price rises, when it rises it is costing entities heavy losses.

The nuts and bolts of the situation is the company is a turnaround situation from a very low base, there cannot be many tiddlers on AIM with £4.4m cash in the bank + increasing revenues and higher margins with a valuation near to the cash position.

If the company was media proactive and delivered more PR the market would quickly latch on to the undervaluation, alas it is not, the directors are still probably concerned about 'reprisals' from the Covid situation so are keeping their heads down.

Next year the re-rate will continue, it takes very little buy volumes to move the price disproportionally, my bet is a bid is still on the cards.

Buy low sell high.

Momentum will start to build in early January in my considered opinion, some deal has to be struck concerning the Senala stake and management have indicated the project is a 'distraction' as they do not have control.

It is odds on they will dispose of the stake, the question is for how much, worth considering the company has spent £7m on it in exploration costs to date so at the very least they will want to recover that.

I think the addition of Eileen Carr to the BOD has been instrumental, it appears she was the one behind the recent JV as admitted by TL (CEO) so she can clearly 'do deals'

The Lanstead situation is a side show IMO, they will eventually ditch their shares in a orderly fashion but remember daily volumes here can sometimes approach 400m/500m on news providing liquidity.

You need to be in it to win it, news could come before the end February JV deadline remember.

Whist you have to take everything Bell says with a massive pinch of salt he is finally taking about cost cutting, asset sales, JV's and producing revenue from gold/lithium sales + still holds the hope for both the Congo cash and the E Oil listing.

The naysayers who suggested the accounts would not be passed and a subsequent suspension of RRR were, once again, totally wrong - of course the purpose was to drop the share price to allow them out of their forward sold shares which Bell duly obliged.

Let us see where the SP goes now, the floor must surely be in.

As expected.

Lanstead have sold circa 115m shares since their holdings announcement of 8th August, then they had 1,013,700,000 or 26.23% and now have 898,922,712 or 23.26%.

I was correct in pointing out that Lanstead do not declare every 1% as suggested by the company on the IM platform shortly after the Sharing Agreement.

All the above said, whilst undoubtably the share price would be far higher without Lanstead (try telling that to the BOD) it makes no odds to the % gain that can occur on good news, on the horizon comes the Senala stake sale situation, this has to be finalised by end February, possibly sooner.

Note also that it has been suggested that if Managem (the JV partner) want to secure 70% they would have to pay ORR circa $2m in cash.

Just as I expected, as the bashers continue their escapades as someone/entity is building a position via CFD/Spreadbets

This part is interesting and tells you all you need to know...

'Number of voting rights that may be acquired if the instrument is exercised/converted 19,535,357'

Nineteen million shares is not your normal position is it - only 237m in issue !

Happy days.

Some interesting commentary over on the other site last few days, the analyst visit, undervaluation, possible corporate action, all discussed with a number of theories suggested.

I have added to my position here, it is pretty clear to all that something is going on not withstanding the very low market value to peer groups.

At the moment it is exceptionally hard to get your hands on the stock as the market has reduced buy limits to a trickle, one senses a material re-valuation of Anglesey is about to take place.

DYOR etc.

Some very chunky on market purchases over recent days, is someone trying to gain control of AYM, the 20.5% stake change was intriguing, especially as it was unexpected and no price was given, the buyer already has 3%/4% via options and other instruments + add to the mix the 4% stake by More Acquisitions CEO you are looking at nearly 30% combined.

The value is here, under JB he has diluted that value by bucket shop placings, it looks like someone is about to take advantage.

So far the general market has not latched on BUT it soon will if these large trades keep hitting the tape and the price rises more.

Any offer would need to be multiples of todays price BUT if someone already has 30% !

Another example, IMM, sharing agreement with Lanstead on 20th Dec 21, no TR1 till June 20th 22, they had sold down approx 2.7%.

As I say as news approaches re the possible Senegal licence sale in mid February the sharing agreement should become a side show. My bet is Managem will acquire ORR's stake and I feel sure ORR will happily sell, maybe the offer might be low ball but in current markets cash is king and ORR may retain some NSR package which may be aligned to Boto in some form.

The above deal will come into play early New Year IMO.

There have been a couple of 1m+ buys over recent sessions, it appears there is underlying demand for the shares currently, the analyst site visit was very well received.

Corporate action is my bet, the re-rate should continue from a very low base.

I posted clear evidence on here a month or so ago clearly showing that Lanstead do not declare every 1%, for those who want to research look at ticker NNN where a Lanstead sharing agreement was arranged on 26/8/22 and did they not declare their 2.61% sell down until 4/1/23.

It is clear that the share price will move disproportionally despite Lanstead, this was demonstrated recently, from .9p to .21p in a few sessions. I prefer to take them out of the equation therefore.

My view remains, you need to time your entry point and the market makers are making it very hard to buy a sizable slice of stock over recent times, this can only be deemed as bullish in my view.

As mentioned, I am buying in smaller size when permitted and building a decent position ahead of mid Q1, that is not so far away is it !

Those discrediting the forward selling thesis are clearly clueless or trying to cover their backs, every man and his dog knows it happens all the time and has clearly happened here over the last few weeks.

These same individuals will say it is not possible to short a minnow like Red Rock, again clueless, one of the most well known shorting scribe sites tells all it is possible and happens.

Anyway, what is done is done (again) and now the market will probably go long for a period, we will see.

Would not be surprised if the forward sellers do not go long now, William Black added recently, his timing has usually proved pretty good.