focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
AP mentioned, once again, the Swiss investor coming in at a premium to market, at the time of the initial General Meeting RNS the share price was in the .60p range, this was the 1st time the matter was discussed in a podcast.
There does appear a material disconnect, current market price to the SI entry point, of course the market wants to see the cash before that gap is narrowed significantly - the current circa £2m market cap seems a good entry point.
Usual caveats !
Why do folks think the money for a potential buyback of the Lanstead stake has to come from ORR or it's directors, there could be, for example, a boutique fund or a group of investors who would acquire the stake as an example, maybe the new CEO can broker a deal.
The issue ORR has had historically is their lack of understanding of 'the City' and how it works, with Eileen Carr and now the new CEO having expertise in this area expect a few new tools could come out of the box.
There is never smoke without fire, the BOD know how much distraction to their on ground progress since the funding was announced, the company is now in a far stronger position, more-so with commodity prices booming + the AIM Index showing green shoots of recovery, never a better time than current to ditch Lanstead and pass the 600m shares to a material investor.
Time will tell.
Jeremy Martin took nearly £8m in salary since 2010, never had any meaningful shareholding in all that time, when and where will he resurface one wonders ??
I am sure shareholders here will be watching.
Once again there is demonstration of a persistent buyer of any loose stock that comes onto the market, given how illiquid CNSL is it is very relevant that 200k+ buys keep appearing from time to time.
The shares remain bargain basement, more significantly under the radar.
Any takeover approach would need to be multiples of the current market value.
If the Lanstead shares were bought out by the BOD (or others) the buyers would see an immediate uplift in their value as the market would see this as an 'overhang cleared' moment.
Lanstead, Yorkville and others of their ilk are despised by investors, I was staggered the BOD could have been so naive doing a deal with such an outfit, clearly they were suckered in by the speel on Lansteads website suggesting they were good for companies, utter tosh.
There are just under 15 months on this deal, as it stands I calculate Lanstead would need to sell circa 1.4m shares per trading day to be out at the close. That is not a huge number as an average, however, Lanstead play the game well and will dump more on thin volume days for certain.
Everything the CFO said when introducing this deal has been wrong, Lanstead do not declare every 1%, Lanstead are not long term holders of shares who will ultimately benefit from long term value, they are immediate sellers, the icing on the cake for Lanstead was how generously the naive BOD gave Lanstead a further 83m shares as they deemed this deal to be value enhancing, oh wow.
I suspect Eileen Carr, with £200k of her own cash personally invested, is as annoyed as the rest of us about Lansteads antics, maybe there is truth to the rumour that ORR want Lanstead gone, maybe they have another deal lined up that might deliver a cash injection that would enable a buyback, it would cost around £1.5m.
No wonder the shares are showing signs of a breakout, with Lanstead gone you could see 1p+ in a short space of time IMO.
One wonders if clients of WHI are buying, there has been a procession of buys since the note was released, it is getting harder to buy in volume, the shares are poised for a move up.
This could quite easily run back to 2p, it hit 2.2p in January.
What a poor show from FCM management regarding the delayed accounts which has resulted in this temporary suspension, there can be no real excuse other than a level of incompetence, it is hardly rocket science to produce annual accounts on time for a company that has no trading revenues and a fairly straight forward suite of projects of which there has only been modest spend over the year, they took their eye of the ball for sure.
It is also telling that there has to be some level of embarrassment from the BOD as they have gone totally quiet on X and no social media since this debacle.
I sincerely hope the suspension will be a short one and news will come on the project sale front, it has now been 5 weeks since it was announced.
In the meantime we wait, as I understand it any material events have to be RNS'ed despite the temporary suspension so always worth keeping an eye on the newsfeed.
Given the fact the free float is tiny it is quite an achievement being able to acquire a line of stock in the 250,000 share region, it is quite clear that there is a patient background buyer taking batches of stock whenever possible, this has been going on for a very long time.
The company is a very attractive bolt on to an established industry player, I still maintain CNSL will eventually be taken over, any offer would need to be at a significant premium to the current measly £4.5m enterprise value that the market ridiculously values the company at.
With over £5m in cash, a market cap of under £10m what's not to like, it is only a matter of time before the shares are trading far higher.
They are trying hard to hold the mid price below .30p but it will break soon enough, buyside volume has been building over the last 10 days, investors see value at these levels, a move into the .40p's is imminent IMO.
It looks like there is a film crew at Parys Mountain currently, not sure of the purpose, some links below.
Any media coverage is welcome.
https://ibb.co/r0k4ddt
https://ibb.co/XFFtMMk
Not a great deal of stock on offer this morning which is a good sign, once this breaks .30p there is very little resistance to the .40p's.
Some news must also be due.
Whenever are these excellent and continued drilling results going to be translated into shareholder value, the current m/cap is a mere circa £5m - it could quite easily be 4 or 5 fold that and still be considered undervalued.
The new CEO has yet to appear on media, hopefully that will change shortly.
The shares are great value currently.
Agreed timing is key and the floor is in here, this traded at 40p 2 years ago was in the mid 20p's last year and hit 16p in January, all rises coming from basement levels when least expected also.
I just have a feeling the Prof has something lined up, if he has and it's a JV with a major the shares will fly, 40p-50p is a real possibility, who knows he may even be prepared to sell the entire project.
The current price is a no brainer entry point IMO, I have added recently.
A run back to the .40p region looks on, the RSI is still in neutral territory, volume over recent sessions is building and the share price is at the lower end of the newly established trading range.
It is getting increasingly harder to buy in any size also, always a good sign.
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according to jb there will be $500m released by *****ons fund to invest in the projects within a few weeks, ska is mentioned again briefly and should be a recipient of some of that cash.
https://youtu.be/mb3ojytjkok
From that interview and one last week the Prof looks a very happy man, no way does he seem to rue the loss of Demir, I am rather surprised more are not buying the shares given their current depressed level, one whiff of any corporate action and you are talking multi bags in value add.
There appears to be a few buyers nibbling away at AYM over the last week, with copper surging ahead in price no wonder, surely management must be close to delivering some form of corporate action on Grangesberg, the former CEO hinted a deal was in the making last year.
Also of note the AIM index has broken through long established moving averages, suggests the small cap bear market is over.
A good time to be buying therefore.
The point I was making was since early January a new trading range has established, from .26p to .42p it is clearly evident on the chart, charts can be used for a number of investment decisions, the RSI is a typical one for example, in respect of ORR we are near the bottom of that range and the RSI is in neutral territory.
Based on the above it is more prudent to buy now than it would be if we were at the top of the range and the RSI was in overbought territory, unfortunately due to lack of liquidity on AIM (as a result of horrific investor losses over the last 3 years) investors have turned into traders and work in swarms, timing an entry point is key.
There are fewer and fewer long term holders of these juniors unfortunately, all I was suggesting is buying now is a good opportunity in respect of ORR.
Anyone betting on falling share prices (especially in the Health & Nutrition sector) will lose, the AIM index is running into bull market territory, it has fallen circa 50%, gains will be staggering for these juniors.
CNSL will be trading above 10p by year end IMO, just wait and see.
https://x.com/SharePickers/status/1788244654049132642
Took a look at a few charts over the holiday period, ORR seems to have formed a base around .26p with a new trading range .26p to .42p since January, current levels look a good entry point IMO.
Of course add to the mix expected news which has been telegraphed by the new CEO.