Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
You are right @shaunp!
One thing to understand is Nova is not just a test company anymore, its a technology company in its fields. The products they have innovated recently have many more applications relating to testing.
The current sp is almost just the cash flow they are generating with ongoing orders and the numbers are still increasing in many countries!
Nice when u check the share price around mid day rather than as soon as opens and see a 10% jump! Happened a few times over last couple of weeks and always great feeling! Happy for all long term holders and the dip buyers at 780 etc this week!
I was tracking it since March at £1.15 but did not buy at the time and it kept going higher. Was hopeful that as more testing companies and vaccine news announced it may trade lower. Started buying from 4.50 to 2.50. Best one was last month at around £3 on the testing issues news and in total around 12k shares. Used spread account as thought of it as a short term trade. This chat group has been very helpful throughout this time.
SO How has Novacyt managed to stay ahead of the curve, while remaining out of sight by the market. This was explained and will be their advantage going forward in the years aead. Novacyt works side by side by the UK Gov, DHSC and AstraZeneca to develop tests that they want. They have NOT been merely modifying some existing tech and trying to sell it to the Government. This relationship has ensured the exact specifications and instant rollout of the original Covid test, Covid-HT, EASY-Cov, NPT systems & WinterPlex.
This insider market intelligence..Is allowing Novacyt is innovate AGAIN for Covid-19. Sadly, Threads have limits and we have hit this one! No worries, we will do a Part 2 shortly which has the EXCITING stuff. Institutional investment, Mid Cap numbers, NEW products, Oh and resolutions all passed! "
2. NOVACYT is STILL AstraZeneca's supplier as casually dropped mid way through the AGM. The UK labs which process the home delivery and return tests are run by Astra, Randox and Perkin Elmer. Nova supplies the AstraZeneca superlabs with Covid-HT (High Throughput)
3. The US is Novacyt's largest customer now! This surprised us as Novacyt only has 1 member of staff physically located there, but they're managed to pull off sales there remotely anyway! Novacyt sees this as the LARGEST global market and will set up a sales team there...and the other largest regions globally, to do DIRECT sales, rather than through distributors as they do now. They ONLY direct sell within the UK market now and see expanding sales teams as a major part of their strategy, especially beyond covid-19.
4. They have hired 60 staff this year, with 30 more in recruitment process currently. Many were R&D, Government support roles etc, but the shift in focus now is towards Sales in the UK and Globally. Which takes us to the WHY.
5. Novacyt's target market is not just covid-19, their target is a fast growing diagnostic's market worth $70 BILLION set to grow to $110 BILLION. Figures which both EXCLUDE Covid-19. Covid-19 is. worth around $22 BILLION on top of that. That is the reason for Novacyt's...Quick hiring push into developing DIRECT sales globally. They are looking at a MUCH larger market than Covid-19, which although good for their sales, is NOT significant compared to the total infectious disease market. Qiagen already makes 1.5 BILLION per year, without Covid.
6. NOVACYT does NOT see Covid sales dropping off in the foreseeable future as indicated by UK Gov, regardless of vaccination. In fact to be vaccinated, or to take any drugs in an NHS ward you first need to be tested for Covid-19, Flud, RSV with WinterPlex, as you cannot...Give a vaccine to someone with the flu or another major infection. This is the reason for Novacyt's Near Patient Testing rollout at the moment. 100% tests pre-ward, so that staff can place flu or covid sufferers apart and quickly give them drug treatment.However, Novacyt's new areas of growth will ensure that monthly revenues will NOT fall off before Covid-19 revenues do. They are looking at revenues GREATER than Covid-19. Which takes us to the Mid Cap strategy...
7. They have BOTH Covid and Non-Covid R&D in process right now.
7 A - Covid Innovation is still ongoing. They would not tell us what however they teased the AGM with 'we are continuing to innovate to meet Covid-19 market demands'.
7 B - Non Covid product expansion is happening in 2 ways. The first is their own lightning fast R&D (8 Covid-19 products to market whereas other companies have not yet any).
And the second is through Acquisitions. This includes acquisitions in the USA which was hinted at.
Thought i will post it here so easier to read: The link is also provided:
https://twitter.com/TaylorQuant/status/1311206474807476224
"1. Novacyt lands once of the LARGEST, if not THE largest contracts in the history of AIM. UK Gov has signed them for a purchase order of £750 million, potentially more.
Phase I is £250 million supplying 300 hospitals, the further rollout adds another 700, another £500m.
Phase II will kick in anytime over the coming weeks or months AND can increase in value BEYOND the £750m. Should covid disappear next week, the very minimum UK Gov would spend is £150m as the initial orders are already out the door.
How would we know if the £750 million + contract has been 'materially changed' - Anthony Dyer addressed this at the AGM. That would be RNS'd to market. The contract is for intended supply and they do not foresee that changing. Any change would be announced by RNS. This is for the next 6 months ONLY. So is this Novacyt's NHS/DHSC/UK Gov total supply? NO.
This is ONLY for their decentralised testing as explained at the AGM. Novacyt already supplies centralised tests to labs all over the country. That has not changed and is not changing. They will continue to supply decentralised tests to labs, and have increase the range of tests these labs can now use, including WinterPlex, and Covid-HT.
So what is next in terms of UK Gov national rollouts?
A: Saliva testing, Gov and Novacyt are running a trial in London and in Care Homes and result of that is due shortly. This is initiate Novacyt's national saliva test rollout and contract. Nova was one of the first to create a test which can detect LOW viral loads.
B: Care Homes. The Care Home rollout will be similar to the Hospital rollout we saw yesterday. Supply of Q32's and Q16's which can be used INSIDE the Care Home's all over the UK, by Bupa and other providers. Prof Martin is concluding as we speak. Nearly 22,000 Care Homes...
In the UK, compared to the 300+700 Hospital supply of yesterday's contract. A rollout for just 5% would match yesterday's contract.
Here is a Q16? With Nova's EASY-Cov tests they are magical. Palm wide, light and do 14 100% accuracy tests in an hour. Average speed 4 min per test
The machines are NOT the source of the high contract values. The tests, supply and SUPPORT are why the contracts are totalling 100's of millions. The equipment is affordable and draws hospitals, care homes are private businesses to Nova's best in class range. Pilots of these machines and Novacyt's range are also running in private businesses are once done rollouts and contracts in industry settings will begin too with the aim of securing major international deals along with smaller local ones. There's more here, but let's more on!
Yes brilliant actually! Just read it in detail. The potential of this is huge as it could rapidly be implemented for flights and cruises! Basically testing day before you fly or go on board. Potentially so many applications of this! Could be used for events, hospitals, flights, cruises, seminars etc etc
I have not even been checking daily price and movement etc compared to some other trades! I realised today that is the sign of when you are comfortable about the purchase as a long term thing and dont feel the need to check daily as you have trust in the business etc.
Nice surprise today as checked after a few days! Good going to all the long term holders here!
@gggg21 "You may all be very interested to hear that primer design new HT high throughput test is specifically for the Roche machines only......."
Wow, that is a big thing given Roche's mega reach all over the world! So basically one way or the other NVCT hitting bigger sales over next few months!
The surge happening all around the world and the winter season approaching means most countries would be trying to stock up on tests as recent news been showing that small outbreaks lead to thousands of tests. The opening of lockdowns and recent case increase in Germany, Portugal amongst others unfortunately show next 4 weeks would lead to surge in many places! This will lead to more test and Roche already cant meet demand!
I have a feeling with biotech companies enjoying record share prices, may be inclined for them to get into M&A activity.
Just read in Guardian live blog:
"The Swiss pharmaceutical firm Roche is unable to meet demand for molecular tests to identify active Covid-19 infections, its chairman told the Swiss daily Tagesanzeiger."
Just goes on to show how the quick increase in production by Novacyt is and will be beneficial over the coming months
Just read in another finance news website: "Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT), whose device that tests for the Covid-19 virus has reportedly been found to miss nearly half of positive cases. The prevalence of 'false negatives' means that many people suffering with the virus could continue to spread it through the community unchecked."
Till now the only 100% accurate PCR gold standard test is by Primedesign. I think Antibody tests are mostly going to be used on sample of population to find out how much population affected. But the PCR tests are basically for anyone showing any symptoms. Like Wuhan now testing whole population to again check if anyone positive currently. The current spread is most important.
I think Novacyt continues selling huge amounts as countries will ensure they have enough capacity to check whole population in an area if any signs of outbreak.
"I am proud that innovation remains at the heart of the business and the forthcoming launch of our Exsig™ Free extraction kit will address a significant market need to increase testing availability and throughput."
Think this has also potential for extra revenue in addition to test kit sales! Something that a lot of companies may want to use given scarcity of required material worldwide!
Yes good point DGR. If only MCAP went up like that. Are people thinking these sales figures are annual for next many years. Maybe / Maybe Not. There are the £20 to £25 expectation posters here then there are the shorters who think it will end up low due to many risk factors. The answer is it may end up somewhere in between. Anyway I am long and bought some today too. You never go against a stock like this.