The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Is it that time of the year when we speculate about Impex?
Btw, they seem to have divested EP318
I'd say no chance for any satellite intel today, it is wet as
http://wxmaps.org/pix/aus.vv
I can find the SS1H site with no issue - no red square is over it. Empire is not flaring ATM (as per their releases)
I can't see anything on NASA. What do you see, Oleo?
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:2024-01-13;l:fires_all,country-outline,firefly;@133.66,-16.84,14.00z
@newtofo, gas and water pressure response depends on flowback time after the frac. If the period is short and well is closed too early, the pressure will continue to decline, lowering water load recovery. If the well is closed anytime after supercharge from the frac fluid dissipated, shut-in will likely reduce frac fluid recovery. This is what is called "soaking". Its impact on gas production is yet to be fully established in the Beetaloo. In Marcellus, the effect varies with changes in gas saturation (wetter wells not responding to soaking).
Santos and Empire reported gas productivity improvements. Rate Transient Analysis is required to distinguish the impact of pressure increase (build-up) from changes in frac length, conductivity, saturation, etc.
As I said, personally, I wouldn't be closing for soaking after 2-3 weeks of production when the water rate is likely still high.
For the geeks https://doi.org/10.15530/urtec-2019-393 (pay for download, free abstract).
"The main drive parameter in the soaking process to success is the initial water saturation. Soaking will work only if the initial water saturation is low. As a result, the formation will adsorb frac fluid during the shut-in period. The best shale met this condition is Marcellus and Eagle Ford as the movable water saturation is almost zero. So before trying to use the soaking process we need to check the formation water amount during the flow back period."
"There are many parameters will be used to see the effect of the soaking process as:
1- Soaking time
2- Gas specific gravity
3- Initial Water saturation
4- Water salinity ratio between formation and frac fluid
5- Pressure gradient of the formation"
@newtofo, testing crew availability should not be a problem - they routinely work through public holidays. Site access is no issue either. Tubing was installed right away (assumption based on bits and pieces of info, like having a workover rig at the site during the frac). Very unlikely that the well loaded up with water and killed itself (not consistent with the gas rate estimated from the sat images).
There are different thoughts on when (and if) to close the well for soaking. I would try to get more fluid out, but some argue to close immediately after the frac.
The most likely reason to close is non-technical. I'll leave it at that
"no flaring" technology wasn't deployed. Eye-in-the-sky is our most reliable way to know what's cooking.
Don't expect sky to clear in the next five days - it's the wet season
Jan 8th flare status unknown - clouds
Old news, it doesn't make sense for NT's distances and low gas volume requirements. I'd be seriously scared of driving on single-lane roads w/ LNG or CNG road trains on it. Make more sense for WA where they operate.
No insight. Hope the well hasn’t loaded up with water and gas velocity is still enough to lift it up production tubing.
Hope the lesson is learned with tubing landing depth.
I wouldn’t be closing the well for buildup or soaking that early, but they may have other reasons.
~1MMSCF/d looking initial flare is encouraging, it should improve with cleanup
It is a pity Nicole chose to quit after not getting the Chief's job. Certainly better dressed than others
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/northern-territory/uncertainty-for-industry-as-popular-mining-minister-steps-aside/news-story/232a8fc5af992fa83f51479be9305000?amp&nk=f4d3b4fa80d58dd9c2c0991ee6e4ab03-1703136769
I have zero insights on what's going on there. From the sat image, it looks like most of the gear is gone and only a few shacks remain - likely testers.
Understand the workover rig was there. Not uncommon not to flare during initial cleanup - too much sand is not good for the separator; handled in the open-top tank before gas becomes an issue.
Chance they have waited too long and residual frac pressure dissipated; they may need to bring coil tubing with nitrogen to help start the flow. But given that the reservoir pressure gradient (0.54 psi/ft; DFIT tend to overestimate) is above hydrostatic (0.43), it is unlikely. Slickwater takes longer to clean up (larger volume). Damage is unlikely (foolproof) unless water itself is a problem. Unknowns are tectonic regime, landing interval, suitability of sand, role of overdisplacement, etc.
Have some patience, may see the flare in a week or so
Natasha Fyles may be forced to resign over holding South32 shares. This is not the first time a conflict of interest is brought up; in Nov there was an attempt to force her out over not disclosing 169 shares in Woodside and a decision on Middle Arm Sustainable Development Precinct. To the best of my knowledge, Woodside is not even a player there.
Queensland premier is gone; I won't be surprised if Natasha is replaced before the Aug elections.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/natasha-fyles-facing-internal-pressure-to-resign-over-alleged-conflict-of-interest/video/7dfc97e8be0893ef131496fab2b34a46
Smocking barnacles? I haven't heard that phrase b4 - assume autocorrect of silly season:)
The way I see it, we are still witnessing the "fake it will you make it" phase of the "go big or go home" play.
We need to see production results first. Won't be the end of the play for Beetaloo, but FOG may need a new partner if SS1H doesn't burn the barn
Binding, but conditional https://investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/dbcba218-e9a.pdf
• Tamboran Resources (Tamboran) have entered into three formal and binding agreements with APA Group (ASX: APA) to support the development of the Company’s Beetaloo Basin assets, including:
− an Early Development Agreement relating to the development of the ~35-kilometre Sturt Plateau Pipeline (SPP) that is planned to connect the proposed 40 million cubic feet per day(MMcf/d) Sturt Plateau Compression Facility (SPCF) to the Amadeus Gas Pipeline (AGP) and, subject to achieving project milestones and executing further agreements, is targeting an online date as early as H2 2025;
− an Early Development Agreement for development of a Beetaloo Basin to East Coast gas pipeline that aims to deliver material volumes (circa 500 MMcf/d or more) into Australia’s East Coast gas market and, subject to achieving project milestones and executing further agreements, is targeting an online date as early as 2028; and
− a Partnering Agreement under which Tamboran agrees to work exclusively with APA Group and, subject to conditions being met, provides an option for Tamboran to acquire up to 15 per cent of any Beetaloo pipeline projects in the lead up to Final Investment Decision (FID)(excluding the SPP).
• Since the execution of the Letter Agreement in June 2023, APA has made good progress on the Beetaloo Basin pipeline projects.
• Under the Early Development Agreements, APA has agreed a process to continue development of the proposed pipelines with early works expenditure of up to A$10 million on the basis that Tamboran continues to progress and achieve agreed milestones in relation to the proposed Shenandoah South Pilot Project.
• The parties will commence negotiations on a binding Gas Transportation Agreement (GTA)targeting execution in H1 2024 subject to Tamboran achieving certain project milestones.
greenies are losing their **** over the proposed middle arm boondoggle. good; the government may be doing something right, for a change
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-15/darwin-harbour-extension-plan-slammed-as-fossil-fuel-subsidy/103215782
Condor may feel a bit disappointed... Not first time Aussie contractors are ditched - ask SLR, Ventia, few others.
https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/0a3ee27e-cdf.pdf
Tamboran enters Strategic Partnership with Liberty Energy to deliver modern stimulation and completion equipment to the Beetaloo Basin
Highlights
• Tamboran has entered into a Strategic Partnership and received a US$10 million (A$15.2 million) equity investment from Liberty Energy Inc. (NYSE: LBRT) (Liberty), a leading North American energy services firm.
• Under the Strategic Partnership, Liberty plans to import a modern frac fleet into the Beetaloo Basin in 2024 to support the stimulation campaign with industry leading operational and subsurface engineering expertise for Tamboran’s proposed 40 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) Shenandoah South Pilot Project, which is planned to commence production in 2026.
• Once terms are finalised between the two parties, Liberty plans to deliver a dedicated frac fleet and crew into the Beetaloo Basin in 2024, which has the potential to reduce the delays experienced in mobilising equipment to site, thereby significantly increasing completion efficiencies and reducing the costs of future stimulation programs.
• Under the Strategic Partnership, Tamboran has agreed to work with Liberty to bring the latest sand mining and handling management solution to the Beetaloo Basin.
• In light of the Strategic Partnership, Tamboran, via its subsidiary Tamboran Infrastructure (TBI), has applied for 14 extractive mineral exploration licences in close proximity to the proposed Shenandoah South Pilot Project for the evaluation of and future extraction of frac sand.
• The Strategic Partnership with Liberty and mining of local sand are two initiatives that are expected to support material reductions in stimulation costs for future development programs.
Tamboran Resources Corporation (ASX: TBN) Managing Director and CEO, Joel Riddle, said: “We welcome the strategic investment from Liberty, which provides alignment between the two companies and demonstrates Liberty’s confidence in the development of the Beetaloo Basin. “Tamboran continues to partner with the best-in-class operating and technology companies to support the development of our assets. The Strategic Agreement with Liberty follows the partnership with Helmerich and Payne (H&P), which imported a modern US drilling rig in to the Beetaloo Basin in 2023, and aims to result in material cost reduction and improved efficiency across our operations. “The supply of stimulation equipment to the Beetaloo Basin is Liberty’s first outside of North America and we look forward to working with them for many years to come. “Tamboran and Liberty are aligned on the common vision of proactively addressing global energy poverty by securing new supply of reliable and affordable energy. At Tamboran, we are committed to maintaining the energy security of Australians
Interesting timing of the capital raise. I guess they are playing it safe and not taking chances of SS-1H not delivering the goods. Or short on $$$. Or both.
Good news on Liberty taking an interest in Australia. They are 2nd largest frac contractor in the US land, gobbled up Sanjel and SLB's frac business (after SLB acquired Weatherford's fleets). Frac activity slowed down a bit; there are idle fleets. It makes sense for Liberty to put one fleet on retainer and get international exposure.
Check their CEO Chris Wright's videos - his rebuke of North Face made rounds.
No flare on Sentinel yet. I don't know if the rig has finished running production tubing.
@newtofo, zone height is only helpful if one can connect it. A typical frac job in the laminated formation may grow for ~100-150ft, and many factors affect it. High-stress streaks may stop the growth altogether. Soft layers may allow growth but kill vertical conductivity. Same for the weak boundaries that shift. Saving grace - not much conductivity is needed to create the stimulating effect because the formation is so darn tight. Natural fractures tend to be vertical and may help the height growth. Slickwater is a low-viscosity fluid that does not generate high net pressure; fracs tend to be longer w/ less height compared to crosslink. Sand tends to drop out of the slurry, thus reducing downward growth. Free fluid at the top permits upward growth - provided the lateral is placed in the right landing spot.
We are very early in the appraisal of the basin. Frac height logging out of vertical wells is limited by the depth of investigation of acoustic and tracer methods. The only attempt at microseismic (at Kyalla 117, different shale) wasn't successful. Bottom line - I don't know. I'd like to hear the reasoning if anyone tells you they do.
@newtofo, prior fracs on A2H, T2H & T3H were predominantly HVFR, another form of gel - a synthetic PAA polymer that is somewhat harder to break. There is a widespread belief in the industry that HVFR is "cleaner" than guar. I don't subscribe to that view; there are nuances, such as gel loading and crosslinking w/ metals.
Several pure SW jobs were done in the basin, but based on published info, the results do not stand out. Early days; need more fracs pumped away. TBN (more correctly DW advisers) did the right job choosing SW - less concerns w/ formation damage (aka "skin").
Smallish is right about being able to pump 100 bpm down 4-1/2" casing, as long as casing grade and metallurgy allow. We may need 15.1# Q125, as P110 burst pressure ~14.4Kpsi before factoring in triaxial load and safety factor. Not ideal, 5-1/2" is a better choice for that rate. I maintain the same job can be done using a lower rate. What matters is the rate per cluster. A higher rate permits doing the job faster by pumping into more clusters, hence fewer frac stages. Or one can choose to use bigger hole charges (or more holes per cluster) and pump a higher rate with fewer clusters - Origin had 3/stage on A1H.
The optimum proppant intensity for the basin is unknown. 2,200 lbs/ft is a respectable starting number, above Bakken (outlier, higher permeability) and in line w/ Permian https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ted-cross-8520b635_oilgas-permian-completions-activity-7046465964279820288-Cp4E.