Member Info for Hardboy

Alessandro.

If I knew what PBT was I might be able to help you

Unplugged: "If the JV was off why put a weichai board member on the Ceres board 3 weeks ago? "

If the JV was off an RNS would be released well nigh immediately.

Ceres are working with Weichai outside their potential JV with Bosch, and Weichai have ~ 20% stake in Ceres. That's why they have a board member.

Forensic, Thank you for those kind words.

I just wish the markets would take note of me!

"the chances are that Investment trusts/OEICs have been forced sellers in most UK stocks to fund redemption requests"

Why would Investment trust be forced to sell because investors sell their shares. The main advantage of the Investment Trust Model (designed to help investors) over the Unit Trust/OEIC model (designed to help the financial services sector) is that they do not have to buy and sell assets as investors invest or withdraw.

The one released on Wednesday was a scheduled one - reporting on Q3 results. The previous one was because the outlook for business had significantly changed. I'm sure they could have used the first to incorporate Q3 to date, but sticking to a schedule of reporting is a good discipline. it means we poor private investors know when to expect updates.

I think Travis Perkins update last week had a negative im[pact on the whole sector

Big Volume today. 1.4m shares traded. Average is under 250k

Jom, I appreciate you taking so much time to explain why you don't like a share. Most people would do the research, decide they don't like it and ignore it from then on, and it is always good to get some counter analysis on these discussion boards.

I wonder though how much research you've done. You say "I can’t see that this stock has ever really performed." One of the first things most people do when analysing a share is look at the price graph. If you had done you will see they launched at somewhere round 150 (can't remember exactly and can't be bothered to check) and with 18 months it was around 540. 170% increase p.a. If you call that not performing, please point us in the direction of shares that have performed. Business was going well - sales, profits and case numbers were all growing nicely - then came COVID. It will take some time to recover from that blow, but in fact it has given them an extra income stream - looking at all the Government Grants handed out during the pandemic which were received fraudulently or at least incorrectly. And it has also increased the market - lots of business kept going for 2 years when they should be insolvent.

I'm excited about the huge potential this share has. I'm concerned about the drop in share price, but if business is continuing to perform as management predict that should be rectified with the next update.

Bestway have increased their stake in Sainsbury's from 4.42% to 4.99%

Wise words from Tommy.

I was just responding to the question about why would anyone invest in this when they can get 4% guaranteed in a bank. When I said treble to quadruple the current share price, I was just working on the fact that it's high was around 540, and within a year the financials could be better than they ever have been. 4% guaranteed v 50-100% in a year with quite a bit of risk. It all depends on one's financial position and risk appetite.

As for the next update - mid November is when they have released their interims in the previous years. Like Tommy I would have hoped for an update between the Finals & the Interims, specially when business could be evolving so quickly. Maybe a quarter 1 or pre close update would have been welcome. Did they say anything at the AGM? (Can't be bothered to check.) With luck the reason they have not put out an update earlier is they have been so busy making money and handling their expansion that they have not had time.

As Tommy points out, there is risk, and things may not be going as swimmingly as my previous post suggests. But we can only go by what the company tells us (& bear in mind there are serious consequences about misleading markets) and the latest communication was upbeat on the future.

Their last update was the release of their finals in June. we are due am update in about 1 month.

Their outlook statement said:

Following a strong H2 FY23, we look forward to a period of growth in FY24 reflecting the increasing number of corporate insolvencies in the UK. The Company is preparing for growth with the recruitment of additional legal staff and support staff to allow this opportunity to be seized.

I also note the exciting opportunity with respect to the Bounce Back Loans (BBLs) pilot with Barclays Bank plc which will evolve during the coming year.

Followed by:-

Current Trading

FY24 has started very well, in the same vein as H2 FY23. It is noticeable that the headline claim values of new case enquiries coming into the Company are starting to increase, as the challenges in the UK economy spread from SMEs to larger enterprises. We have recently added to both our in-house legal team and our Net Worth Report team, to address the increased demand we are seeing across all regions.

In summary - there is a lag between insolvencies and MANO getting any money; so financials don't look great; BUT business is booming - case numbers are at record highs, enquiries are at record highs, enquiries are getting bigger in value.

Everything about the outlook is positive. I guess the share price is falling because people are looking at the historic figures not the future looking words. Having a quick look, not detailed analysis.

This has the potential to treble or quadruple in the next year. That's not a prediction, just a possibility. But if you're happy with a safe 4% p.a. you stick with it.

Gladly.

Can not see the reason for this sudden upswing, but not complaining. The volumes have not gone up, so doubt it's someone stake building. It's a while till the next announcement. No obvious reason.

Yippee - it went up! after 8 consecutive down days. The NAV meanwhile has gone up 4 days running,

Maybe some very short term profit taking

Just listened to a recent podcast for Investors Chronicle (I think) with Lord Lee who is very positive on M&G

Don't forget AFC

And yet the share price wallows.

What has gone wrong here? Utility stocks are usually thought to be defensive and of low volatility. But this share price has been in freefall for 6 months.

As we suspected - share price decline has nothing to do with profits decline. Nice tick up in sales in a difficult climate, double digit increase in profits, and most importantly the move to the new site has been completed. This should offer such good improvements in efficiency and flexible capacity. They took on a lot of debt to pay for it, but that has come down impressively. This time next year they may be back to net cash.

If the share price does not rebound today markets really are irrational!

£161.2m Net cash at the interims which were announced less than 2 weeks ago.