Member Info for HarChris

(i) We were literally discussing the warrants 10 or so posts down and (ii) none have been exercised and so there is no overhang at the moment.

Will they be exercised and sold into the market at 1p and above? Sure but it won't be in holders benefit to tank the market so should be able to see appreciation consistently if operations keep delivering warrants or not.... There's 200m broker warrants from last raise and ~10B from the previous raise so there will be an eventual 26B total share count if all those warrants are eventually exercised and it will bring in around £8m cash.

0.25p would be a 5X return from here and still only be a filly diluted mcap of £52m, miniscule compared to the potential profits here. There's some workings from the weekend where LT comes up with a ~£150m camp, that would be 0.75p even with every single warrant exercised which is 15X today's share price. And that's assuming little to no upside from HPI/smelter back in action.

I know it's only educated guessing but that stacks up to me LT. And whilst a few £100k is nothing in the grand scheme of things I still think it would be a negative to accept dilution at .5p when there's been so much progress since the .45p raise.

So I am hoping that (i) there's no need for cash but if there is (ii) they are able to defer certain payments until further derisking updates can be released to market allowing for decent share price appreciation first.

Ps looking forward to some snippets from the TP note - have they given a broker target in the past?

LT I hear you, was just trying to think aloud as to why there's been such tame share price reaction so far but I shan't linger on that anymore and wait patiently for events to pay out as expected. And I might take advantage in the meantime and add a third time.

We know of that prepayment as it was in the RNS - whilst only about $95k split three ways it all adds to the narrative that cash is being preserved and monitored to avoid a cash raise. Next update should be of production and first ore delivery to the DMS plant. Possibly off-take news too.

Well in terms of this particular investment Boko Haram hasn’t ever operated in the south west of the country, where Segilola is. It operates from the north to east of Nigeria and into bordering countries (Chad, Niger, Cameroon) and there’s absolutely no expectation of them making ground south westwards, especially if the US steps in.

Not something that is going to directly affect Thor’s operations nor its future Senegalese operations. But thanks for your input and good to have it cleared up.

I meant from the POV of an II doing its due diligence after these updates. If they had say £100k to invest they’d be corresponding with the company and wanting to find out if cash is needed and offering it up rather than trying to get as many shares via the open market. But open market buying is what’s needed to see this higher.

If a small subscription is needed the sooner it’s out the way the better so the path ahead is clear for buyers to step in. If it’s not it would be good to make that clear to the market via op update or with an updated post period cash figure in FY results.

Does the note mention cash position?

The only logical (I use the term very loosely) reason for such flaccid price action is expectation of a placing in the near term to shore up working capital position and those same investors expecting a chance to enter in size during said subscription.

If that can be put to bed (either by Pope or via an operational update) then I think share price takes off.

'Why? If AVA6000 was as good as the 'pom pom' girls were saying.'

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This is the most egregious thing you've ever said on here... The joke about you getting your pom poms out is genuinely funny, twisting it is just not right.

I wouldn't worry, if you're right on your numbers then the moment they are visibly seen by the market the rerate will occur.

Clearly irrational to be more or less at the same share price as the June placing, that's hard to argue against.

It's also worth noting some of the recent gold forecasts:

JP Morgan sees gold averaging $5055/oz by Q4 26, Goldman Sachs $4900/oz for the same period, Societe Generale $5000/oz etc etc

This is all still within the tax holiday period for THX... the total saved is astronomical.

Back a year ago Segun was gracious enough to regularly reply and keep a correspondence going with me. Just been reading back through the messages from December last year and he said 'On Douta, we are finalising the output and encouraged. As it is creeping up to the festive period we are now considering releasing in January when it would have more of an impact' . Similarly with Segilola, was targeting resource expansion by end of H1 25.

Segun was afforded much more time due to having no cash raising requirements and hence no need to keep the momentum going with news (plus the sheer extent of the profitability being enough to do the SP management for him) but my word have these huge catalysts been backed up for a long while.

At least they really are imminent now!

Look forward to this one… the strong recent placing with minimal discount suggests the outlook is positive and institutions want in at this time. Q&A is a good chance to put the tougher questions to the board.

I make it about £7m at that price having just checked. TP got a handful on top at the placing price too rather than 0.072.

It’s not a terrible price to bolster the company finances at though.

Yes thank you to both. I guess we have to rely on a few assumptions for now such as Daemaneng themselves proving competent, puling off successful offtakes etc but there is always going to be some level of uncertainty at such a market cap with the valuation gap closing as each milestone is achieved and ticked off, derisking the investment further. I do hope management do their level best to avoid raising whilst the share price is down here, with costs transferred to Daemaneng and with near term cash flows it shouldn't be too much of an issue deferring certain payments, salaries etc a few months til the cash flow starts. And if the share price were to rally say to over 0.1p in the coming weeks I wouldn't blame them tapping the markets for a few quid to give them working capital breathing space.

Hopefully a news-rich period to christmas with plenty to discuss on here.

Trump is threatening to declare war or end war in every country he can name… he doesn’t have the attention span to see any of it through.

Nigeria has always been a jurisdiction risk here but this management have always handled it admirably, probably because they have a board jam-packed with Nigerian businessmen with political reach.

At the very least it props up half the market cap and is a totally free shot. No way Raglan, BM & Lolworth only worth the half of the mcap combined in this gold climate.

I also held Shanta to takeover. Tbh it was quite a unique set of circumstances, the gold price had only just started rising ($2150/oz or there abouts) but sentiment in the mining space was still rock bottom and despite the CEO Eric doing a great job little of it was priced in so acquirers (colluding with the CEO who held a sizeable chunk) offered a small premium and dressed it up as a good result for us. PIs all knew it was a stitch up but owned too little of the company to ward it off.

In general though I wouldn’t worry about picking shares that might end up being acquired, at least it’ll be a profit!

Ironveld has long been on an AIM watchlist of mine amongst about 50 or so other small caps without having ever gone too deep into research. This year a few RNSs piqued my interest and I began to give the company a bit more of my time before jumping in very small following the Oct 7th Daemaneng agreement and then adding following the signing of the binding term sheet this week. I have a few questions for the two of you on here though that each own large chunks of the company.

These questions might seem basic but I'm very much a big picture investor with a good intuition as to which small caps will do well or not but i'm weaker when it comes to the nitty gritty detail, especially for a miner that's operating in a nicher field like Ironveld is. So previously the main reasons I wouldn't buy was the funding position, I always assumed that the amount of cash needed to get IRON to a self-funding position would be too significant relative to the market cap (although I remember noting that the £900k placing was impressive business at a v small discount @ 0.045p). Clearly with this outsourcing of the capex costs for the DMS plant that deals with much of the funding issues and therefore the funding / financial risk is at least vastly reduced (rather complicated to work out exactly how much cash flow will be seen but all of it points to it at least being meaningful relative to current tiny market cap). Simply taking the £21.6m that Daemaneng are willing to fund highlights the sizeable returns expected.

The second reason I was reticent to invest was jurisdiction risk. South Africa is clearly a difficult place to operate in with its ongoing energy issues which I assume wreaked havoc around the 2022/23 peak crisis, do you see risks to energy supply and from South Africa in general going forward or has there been more than enough mitigation for you to be satisfied that the new management (and country itself) has Ironveld with a much stronger foothold?

Are you concerned by the lack of off-take agreements at this stage? In May there was supposedly a firm initial offtake agreement for a smaller amount (up to 1000tp/m) and a tender bid for 5000t-7500t yet none have materialised as of yet. What makes you confident that will happen now? Have you reason to believe the demand is there for at least 20000tp/m (and all the way up to 40k?). Also what's the issue with the smelter at this stage? Financial? Could this JV deal free up space (and cash flow) to restart the HPI, V slag and Ti Slag production?

I guess finally as long term holders have you seen a real, discernible difference from the new CEO Andersson? Any concerns over the lack of executives on the board?

THX and SRB have been my main holdings through the bull run + GRL being the loser but I’ve decided to turn my attention to explorers, might be of interest to you Boldicus?

The way I look at it many are predicting a new golden era (a golden age you could call it) and right now the average gold project will see around $1500/oz AISC for LOM, that’s a heck of a margin and safety net.

So my latest investments are Jangada which is funded to feasibility stage where they expect to see project upgraded soon to 350k+ (with potential of 1M oz eventual upgrade) - only 33% owner but £500k pre agreed to take a controlling stake. Decent Brazilian jurisdiction with experienced Brazilians on the board and in CEO chair now.

The other ECR. One quick to revenue (this quarter) small-scale alluvial gold project, one small ish project now JVd with costs outsourced and one much larger project that they hope to develop with alluvial gold profits (own sizeable tax losses so no corporate tax to pay for a long while). Excellent jurisdiction being Australia and much bolstered board. Both companies have zero debt and valued at ~£5m.

It's rare to see so much committed short term (this quarter) so try give it a couple more months and see how this thread ages. No funding issues to gegt in the way of progress now either.

I don’t pretend to be the smartest investor but I have learnt to focus on the things that really matter in the small cap space. 1. Management competence, 2. debt position, 3.ability to get to positive cash flow without heavy dilution. Keep it simple.

Ps thanks for always being polite. I’ll always debate honestly and I agree with you that the previous settlement with Devenport Capital offers some hope.