Member Info for HarChris

I don't see anyone complaining about the price but your comment is BS, they could not have bought 21m shares over the past week and seen the share price stay below 6p average. They'd have spiked the price buying in such quantity.

Don't begrudge them but it does seem like a bit of a strategy to let the feasibility study news form a new low, boost sentiment with the much better CC6 news and immediately get the subscription away before the share price starts to recover.

6p a share seems fair and will be in sticky hands. Probably be more of a derisking event if raised double that though.

Yeah, Adeoye has a 22.6m holding, Aderinokun 22.2m shares and the most being Segun with 29.1m. That’s about 11% of the company. Add in the smaller holdings by the other directors & execs and you get to about 13%. That’s healthy board ownership.

Does it not just highlight that there’s a lot more going on behind the scenes than they’re ready to reveal at this juncture? That’s no bad thing.

If there’s not a single commercial deal or partnership over the next eight months within this funding window then I’m sure many of us will join you in that criticism somewhat but what an utterly bizarre take given the recent placing was clearly to extend the runway so that such a deal can be delivered from a stronger negotiating position.

As for lack of director buying well the way I look at it if Christina sees Avacta through to takeover she’ll pocket a cool £19m profit on her options at a sale price of say 600p. I doubt she cares about trying to make more than that by buying a few shares now, she has her healthy salary so it’s the career recognition and science pioneering that matters.

This is wholly good news for shareholders, I hope it's signed and binding soon.

I took a look into how many shares are to be issued for those interested and I think this is correct:

There's 120m 2025 series CLN shares @ 3.75p, 24m 2019 series @3.75p with conversion end of this year and ~35m 2022 series (July 2026) conversion @7.5p a share + interest at lower rates.

So when all is said and done the TVR is looking to rise from 138.6m to around 315m. That's all the CLNs paid for and for the £4.5m funding that's been received. With 315m shares getting back to 10p would be a £31.5m mcap, tough but evidently possible if the operational targets are consistently achieved.

It is a challenge though with all the warrants ... essentially if the share price rallies the next funding round comes from the warrant holders of the 2025 series CLNs, of which they each hold a warrant at 3.75p. If they all convert that's another £4.5m in the bank but also another 120m shares taking TVR to 435m. Those warrant holders then get an additional warrant (if exercised within the timeframe) and it's at a much higher share price but requires too many variables to work out.

And that second RNS is even more interesting… a good chunk of the placing taken up by the Northern Powerhouse Fund. Was just having a bit of a read up on them:

The Northern Powerhouse Investment Fund (NPIF) is a British Business Bank initiative designed to boost SME growth across the North of England.

NPIF Second Funding Round - launched 21 March 2024,

£660 million to invest,

Geography: whole North – North West, Yorkshire & Humber, Tees Valley plus the entire North East for the first time

What you can get:

– Small loans / microfinance: £25 k – £100 k

– Debt finance: £100 k – £2 million

– Equity: up to £5 million

Who knows, might even be more support in the future but whatever happens we can be sure this is a sticky long term investor.

We had a huge back and forth with the share price back at 63p where I said it means nothing besides normal placing malaise and after a few weeks we’ll start to see consistent share price appreciation. If you fully agreed with the direction then you wouldn’t have kept arguing with me over my confidence of it going north, why would you?

In fact you even wrote ‘perhaps you’ll be right Chris’ which shows you were doubtful then or at least weren’t in so wanted to come across doubtful. Now you’re in so you’re predicting much higher.

You’re not half as honest and unbiased as you pretend to be.

Yes and if we go back two and a half weeks you were posting about how concerning the price reaction was being back at 63p and how telling that was, how it says to you the market has made its mind up over the chance of there being a deal within current nine month funding timeframe etc.

If you predict all things, share price weakness, sideways movement and up you will be right!

I just thought that analysis was helping no one that's all. You didn't post between a move from 65p to 72p in which you then came on to say how it's now going higher to mid 90s with no mention of pullback or support. So in fact if someone was blindly following you they might have actually missed the nice recent move and charged in this morning on open at 72p ready for that big move north. In that case they've got it completely upside down!

Anyway with you on this move to 104p, locked and loaded with even more shares at 62.99p a fortnight ago (feels good getting in cheaper than the placees by 0.01p haha

I know that Ice, just pointing out the inconsistency of claiming yesterday chart is saying be in, be holding because it’s going up and then when it falls saying that’s what those who follow the charts have been waiting for.

I think Wyn might admit the contradiction here.

Yesterday your commentary suggested confidently it was going higher next, ie best to be in because it won't likely pause to mid 90s and maybe even 104p. Yet when it fell this morning you said this is what the disciplined waited for.

See I read this as a contradiction. The chart was telling you yesterday to be in and to hold as the strong share price action screamed 'up next without pullback'. But after the pullback happened this morning suddenly that's what the disciplined were waiting for. So were the disciplined not listening to the price action yesterday?

I honestly don't think the two pieces of commentary can be complementary. Follow your first advice and you miss out on the better entry, follow the second piece of advice and if the first had played out you'd miss a big move north....

Sure Wyn although some of us saw the placing price of 63p as a firm supportive floor to add last week.

A few attempts already to break through the 72p resistance, expect it will manage it the next time.

My last post below had a few typos / broken sentences, sorry.

Point is on average barely 0.5% of total shares are traded each day, the constant claiming to know who’s buying and selling is both tedious and stupid.

We have seen a lot more demand for shares than supply, even with 20m or so more shares on the register, and that’s why it’s continuing to rise.

No reason that won’t continue with the long awaited catalysts signposted for end of year / early 2026.

Every day there’s someone guessing who’s buying and sell. Yesterday was supposedly proof that Avacta has sticky placees, today they are all dumping.

All we know is that the share price is higher than every subscription and so clearly the majority aren’t selling out.

Face it, no one knows but continual share price appreciation

Could this have been somewhat planned Andy? Put out the sky high figure so as that the CC6 costs look small in comparison?

The best thing that could happen is near terms news driving the share price higher with many of the 0.072 warrants being exercised to shore up the cash position. Then they have Daemaneng in control of costs and capex for the DMS and can focus on getting the smelter back up and running.

Things could move fast here through 2025 and into early 2026.

Rooftop, think of it simply like this. When sentiment is positive there’s a belief bitcoin is going higher and a company like SWC is capable of racing well, well ahead of mNAV. Will it ever get to the ridiculous multiples of earlier this year like 50 x mNAV? IMO no, but could it with enough time having passed and BTC back bullish see 3 or 4 X the mNAV (even if only briefly)? Fairly likely yeah.

So wouldn’t worry too much. SWC only goes much lower from here if BTC sinks and even if it does I’m fairly confident at some point, whether than be 2 months or 2 years, BTC will have a huge wind in its sail again and we could well be looking at $200k BTC and £4+ SWC

You’ve got to decide what you think a good price is for the long term and make that your accumulation point and then shut out the noise, as difficult as that may be.

(i) We were literally discussing the warrants 10 or so posts down and (ii) none have been exercised and so there is no overhang at the moment.

Will they be exercised and sold into the market at 1p and above? Sure but it won't be in holders benefit to tank the market so should be able to see appreciation consistently if operations keep delivering warrants or not.... There's 200m broker warrants from last raise and ~10B from the previous raise so there will be an eventual 26B total share count if all those warrants are eventually exercised and it will bring in around £8m cash.

0.25p would be a 5X return from here and still only be a filly diluted mcap of £52m, miniscule compared to the potential profits here. There's some workings from the weekend where LT comes up with a ~£150m camp, that would be 0.75p even with every single warrant exercised which is 15X today's share price. And that's assuming little to no upside from HPI/smelter back in action.

I know it's only educated guessing but that stacks up to me LT. And whilst a few £100k is nothing in the grand scheme of things I still think it would be a negative to accept dilution at .5p when there's been so much progress since the .45p raise.

So I am hoping that (i) there's no need for cash but if there is (ii) they are able to defer certain payments until further derisking updates can be released to market allowing for decent share price appreciation first.

Ps looking forward to some snippets from the TP note - have they given a broker target in the past?