Member Info for HarChris

It's all about bitcoin price direction. BTC at $65k but looking likely to drop is much worse than BTC at $60k and on the way up.

Yes. What you couldn't understand last week was why BTC was high and Argo was falling. Despite the ATH in BTC last week there was a general feeling that the coinbase IPO was pumping crypto and there might be a correction and that is exactly what happened. Bitcoin is now very finely balanced and so is this share - a move down towards $50k and Arb is going lower towards £1, a move up and breaking $60k and sentiment returns and Arb returns to around the £2 mark..

It's more or less as simple as that...

What silence does is lead investors to conjure up all the worst possible scenarios and have them debated. They are extremely unlikely and the much more likely outcome is that this is all resolved and the company come out of it just fine...

Yes it can go much lower especially if the silence is maintained. No news is not good news.
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It can't, an offer will come in and take it out. Nobody turns down a free cash making business.

It's no consolation to the LTHs who have held this all the way down from £11 but there really is limited downside from here. Sure it might hit £3.50 but it can't logically go any lower.

F U Mr Big!

P.s good to see you fella.

If LTH have held out this long I can't see them selling at £3.75 or lower, if anything the fall in SP forces them to stick with it.

If it falls anymore I think I'll see if I can buy the business out with a small loan from the bank, i'll just cover the loan with the cash balance!

Well that was a damn terribly timed reentry yesterday! Few more for me at £3.75.

Calamari I don't agree with you exactly. As a HODLer now it is much more difficult to determine the fundamentals. The fundamentals are NOT today's bitcoin price, but future price when we eventually sell some/all. The share price is falling because there is less confidence over the future of bitcoin after a month's fall/slowdown in the bitcoin price.

Some thought the price was going to race to well over $100k and that hasn't happened. If it does in 2021 Argo will be back £3+ again very swiftly. if it doesn't Argo could well be much lower than it is today.

No that's plainly wrong Hydr. IT-IS for example cost £10m and generated £5m revenue and was profitable. There will be hundreds, maybe thousands of private companies in the space that have huge potential but lack the funds to reach profitability etc

It is true that this investment comes with considerable executional risk and at this point is very much an investment in Graham and the board but only a monumental **** up could cause shareholder value to decline from here...

Someone on the Argo board earlier asked 'can the p/e realistically go any lower if debt-free?!' as the share price fell to around a projected p/e of 9. Ahem, quite a bit lower my friend!

Thanks Kaeren but the only way you'll know if I'm in is if I'm posting on the board. The only post I've ever made when not holding is calling out barnetpeter for deramping. Hate nothing more than nasty folk willing a share price to fall to get in lower or to feel better about their own sell.

I shall refrain from posting on here now as it seems some of you are annoyed that I am doing okay trading the share. I repeat, despite often selling and hoping for a chance to get back in lower at some point, I never ever trash the company or try to create any uncertainty for long term holders. But I suppose being in and out so much nowadays makes my contributions less valid and could be deemed misleading... ATB guys!

Harchris wrote " anyway having bought back in this morning at 397 with more shares than I sold immediately following the bad news.

It rose the following day to 460p on nothing so I took the opportunity to make back some of my losses. I buy with the aim to hold long term but if an opportunity presents itself I will take it and buy back in cheaper.

I may have got out at £5.50 in one account and £5 in the other but I still saw hefty profits disintegrate and crystalised and at no point did I come on here voicing my frustrations.

Wilson that's not fair, I've never criticised Graham or anyone connected to novacyt. I do trade in general but when I sit on the sidelines I don't post as I don't feel it's right to contribute. I merely popped on last week to call out barnetpeter for his disgusting deramping.

Well, novacyt made £187m EBITDA in 2020 (Net profit ~£150m)and are valued at £275m currently (and debt free) so technically the lowest it can go is a P/e of about 1.5.

That's an extreme situation though.

That's just not true, there is no justification for the comment 'shareholders clearly mean nothing to GM'. It's difficult to get communication right, I'm not sure suddenly shifting communication style/rns frequency would necessarily have a positive effect on the share price, it might seem a bit desperate.

Graham has over £100m at his disposal and still large amounts of money coming in daily. He will know full well that if he and the board make the right strategic moves over the next twelve months this becomes a billion pound company. He has promised us updates in Q2 and that is what he must deliver on, as well as continuing to generate bucketloads of money.

Thank you Valuerebel for the explanation :)