Member Info for HarChris

Malik, the problem with your valuation is you are assuming you know what the price of a bitcoin will be in 2022... you don't. This is the same for all commodities but bitcoin is even more difficult to predict than metals at this point in its evolution.

ERCFC, so if I invest say £10k into a bitcoin ETF does that mean the ETF picks up more bitcoin (~£10ks worth)? In other words holding a bitcoin ETF will benefit the bitcoin price?

Xenor, that's the point I was trying to make. Personally I've never been bullish on crypto and especially not on bitcoin but I bought in to the 'the top of this bull market could reach $400k' narrative. I'm therefore treading very carefully as I'm not willing to hold a loss here for a hefty length of time.

Those who are bullish on bitcoin, like Peter Wall, need not worry about sitting on a loss as they'll be rewarded eventually if they're right.

6% is really quite reassuring on a down day for the markets in general.

Will ETFs hurt bitcoin? Doesn't it just mean even more people investing indirectly in bitcoin rather than holding bitcoin themselves? Or do I simply not understand how ETFs work?!

There is obviously nervousness over bitcoin and the wider crypto space right now. I'm not sure it's justified but after a year of relentless forward momentum the market is about to be tested.

Now is the time where you either pull your money out of here or go for broke. If you are dead confident on the future of bitcoin and its value rising over time there is life changing money to be made. If you think there's a chance of bitcoin collapsing then tread carefully.

I felt confident buying today because there's just no way to argue that a company with ~£130m cash to hand with the distribution and sales network NCYT now has could ever be valued at £279m. The only way to realistically lose money from here is if the dispute leads to a major revision of the 2020 financials.

I don't believe it will so I see almost no downside from here and still significant upside medium term.

@yuyus I imagine they'll have diversified away from bitcoin mining well before 2040, let alone 2140!

I think value investors will feel sufficiently comfortable investing now having waited a week or so post-RNS to see how this all plays out. I certainly do anyway having bought back in this morning at 397 with more shares than I sold immediately following the bad news.

The bottom looks to be in unless there is further bad news...

I can picture Pearls, a spotty 20 yr old sitting there gleaming all weekend and this morning convinced he/she/they are going to get their buy in price of sub £1 at some point this week but now all hunched up over his/her/their phone and in the foulest of moods looking at the share price!

I sold out admittedly at 15.4 but I have a bit of a rule of selling on bad news even if the fundamentals are not significantly hit. It doesn't always work but it does always prevent the worse case scenario playing out...

What reason would it rise from here ST? I assume shorters will try their best to take advantage of the situation and if I can buy back in around 14p it's all the better long term.

I told her and she said 'right that's it we're loading up first thing tomorrow'

She's a keeper.

It depends on your definition of gambling. By your reasoning buying a house is gambling as the property market might crash and you've lost your money, to most it's an investment even if it turns out to be a poor one.

It's still 16 hours until the stock market opens so depends what happens between now and then. If BTC stays where it is now I think it opens about 130p, falls further to 125p and then starts climbing.

If BTC is back around $60k then bottoms out at 140p.
If BTC rises back above $60k I can see it opening up, as it would be extremely bullish to recover those losses so quickly.
If BTC drops below $50k I have no idea!

I think many people are going to be very surprised by the price action tomorrow and possibly get burnt. It's a completely different situation to last week, this won't have caught anyone by surprise by happening at the weekend and the share price is already low at 156p. Personally I'm expect panic selling on the bell with the bottom in almost immediately (at about 125p) before a rise back to where we finished COB Friday. Many will take whatever sell quote they can get at 08:01 but I think they'll be some regrets.

If BTC is above $56k I'm following my own advice and will look to buy as soon as the flash crash happens, about 08:10.

Are you trying to tell me that Cathie Wood fails to see that collectible postage stamps are the future? In that case don't listen to a word she says!

Now with hindsight it's a shame PW didn't go for a heavier dilution but either way this cheap capital raised will prove to be very beneficial to Argo shareholders long term.

Sadly none of will ever know , it becomes truly finite I'm 2140
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No it is finite now with a known date for when all coins will have been produced. Only about 325000 coins are mined a year and there are probably as many as that lost for good through death/lost passwords etc so the number in circulation will barely be growing.

A couple more halvings and the numbers mined will be small enough to consider supply as no longer increasing...

There's a difference Hill and that's the fixed 21 million supply. As the number held by institutions grows everyone will have to eventually pay a hell of a lot more for a a satoshi, for a piece of the pie. The polar opposite of the dollar where trillions are printed continually...

It does in theory make bitcoin more illiquid but that isn't necessarily a bad thing for the price long term...

My favourite posts are the ones that go something like this 'Bought at 3p, 7p, 13p and 43p and sold at £3.10. Looking to buy back at 50p'.

Sure you did!