Member Info for HarChris

Jesus Tiger stop being so stupid. I didn't say it would fall, I said it was finely balanced and it still is, thankfully though BTC is holding up well though. I am staying on the sidelines as I see risk to the downside and little upside unless BTC reaches ATHs (which of course it might). I'm not a deramper, I hope you all make a ton and will jump in higher if BTC shows strength throughout the next few weeks.

And you are certainly wrong that this has anything to do with a 'dilution overhang'.

I did it with a share this morning, bought £20000 worth and sold it a second later for £20071. Not sure it was worth the risk of something going on like NT or the share price changing but a gain's a gain, eh?!

HL Brazil.

Stop mentioning the dilution, it was 3% at £2 and six weeks ago. Today's price action has nothing to do with it!

If BTC had pushed on this morn towards $60k Arb would have reached £2 without.a.doubt.

Could be the sell that halted the rise in its tracks, this did look like it might have the legs to push on much further.
Still, great to see such positive price action!

I've done okay trading this but passed up a 127 buy quote yesterday morning - grrrrrrr!. Don't disagree with you Tiger but still think this could break either way this week.

I'm surprised it's held up so well despite bitcoin weakness. Going to be a very interesting afternoon, I'm staying on the sidelines but I hope this holds and pushes on for the holders here.

If you are talking to me then you really are becoming a paranoid person! And in answer to your question if pointed at me, only if it falls to £3.50 ish which I personally doubt, I'm loaded to the hilt now.

One major uncertainty for me is airline testing. It appears novacyt moved early to strike deals with as many agencies/private companies as possible and are amazingly well placed to generate big returns from this space. The main problem is we don't know how it's all going to play out and for how long airport/fit to fly testing will go on for.

That's not something novacyt can control, they've done all they can to position themselves accordingly.

Is it novacyt's fault if they provide what the government supposedly needs only for the government to row back on it? I imagine part of the issue is that novacyt threw a lot of resources and energy into servicing that contract, money and effort that could have been spent elsewhere. Hence a lot of lost revenue if the government doesn't cough up...

Are you eating more than three meals a week? Then you are not all in.

Wilson, the worst case scenario is being priced in here. From 2022 onwards covid revenue could possibly be quite small but what the company has is bucketloads of cash to build the business. If the dispute leads to a 'material' difference then perhaps we will merely have pocket change to play with going forward?

I'm not saying that's the case, I obviously don't believe it, but that's how you get to a valuation like this during the uncertainty.

Or could it be that selling pressure is pushing it down? You do an amazing job of putting a positive spin on everything!

Comparisons with the likes of Asos are pointless to be honest, they are making £150m year on year. After 2021, profits here will be no where near that and nor do they need to be to reach the £1b valuation I imagine most are eventually hoping for.

Compare with the likes of yourgene and Sourcebio like Porky did

Don't get your hopes up, there's absolutely no reason for this to bounce hard until we get some positive news that clears up the uncertainty. It also won't go a whole lot lower because of the cash pile so it's a case of treading water til then :(

As it happens I do think this is an absolutely amazing opportunity to top up or buy in for those that have money. This sort of situation is bread and butter for shorters and they have without doubt pushed the share price to quite ridiculous levels now thanks to the lack of buying pressure to counteract it.

£4.25 ish I did think was fair enough given the circumstances but towards £3.50? Nah.

Porky, absolutely nobody would argue it's not cheap at this price. The issue is most investors will have a blanket rule of selling following a profit warning. I agree with your analysis but you can't go throwing those numbers out there when the trading update said there might be a 'material' effect on the 2020 financials. I don't personally think it will be too serious but the uncertainty is real.

As I said before I bought back Monday and am topping up with every further fall but I won't pretend it's quite as simple as you're making out. The majority won't be as confident as you (and I) that the issues will be resolved amicably and have no material effect on the financials you've just posted.

Let's hope for a 7am rns that clears up this matter followed by nothing but good news from here on out.

I truly believe that Graham and the team are laser focused on the medium term, that goal of becoming a midcap company. They will be mightily frustrated by the developments as news like we received puts a massive dent on those ambitious medium term plans but the course they have currently chosen (silence) will in their opinion be the best course of action at this time. I'm not deluded enough to think no news is good news but equally I can't see any 'material difference' affecting the companies' ability to continue growing.

Then there's those that think Graham and the board are corrupt and are just doing everything for their own personal interest. If I'm wrong and the cynical types are right then all of us currently holding are well and truly stuffed!

I notice that no-one is providing a value-argument against Bushveld...which I see as a +ve.
I mean...no-one even addresses the obvious (e.g. will Vanadium be the element of choice in future VRFBs).
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If you go and call them vanadium redox flow batteries you bloody expect vanadium to be in there somewhere!