Member Info for happysparrow

Douala is the main economic area of Cameroon - they are perhaps confident of getting in new business at good rates (?) - they have 30 industrial customers already:
https://www.businessincameroon.com/finance/0207-10489-douala-port-authority-realizes-cfaf5-37-bln-of-net-profits-for-fy2019-up-162-7-yoy
https://www.cameroon-today.com/cameroon-business.html
https://www.businessincameroon.com/transport/0307-10492-cameroon-prepares-to-officially-resume-flights-after-keeping-borders-closed-over-the-past-three-months

Disappointing to see £15K of sales in the hour before the announcement!

Just returned... and it all kicks off.
Firm and decisive action from our CEO - can't complain about that.

Brasso - this was from the 3rd march RNS:
'As a result of the installation of a larger scale compressor, and the opening up of more shut-in wells in Estancia Vieja due in Q2 2020, it is projected that from June Group production should be boosted by a further 800 boepd. In such a scenario, this would by or around the end of H1 2020 result in some 2,000 boepd total net gas production (12 MMscft/d) from President's Neuquen basin assets thereby boosting aggregate oil and gas production net to the Company to 4,000 boepd excluding the impact of drilling results to come in Argentina during H2 2020. '

This was part answered by the Trafigura Q&A of 3rd June:
Q: So what's next for President?
A: In no particular order:
(i) new compressors and infrastructure for gas in Rio Negro in operation at or around the
end of Q3, slightly delayed as a result of the dislocation of supply chains included in
importation of parts as a result of Covid-19

Hence my enquiry with investor relations.
It is not clear, but I think we are waiting to see what of the above work needs to be completed, and what the final outcomes are once completed.

Hence I've estimated current production at 3,000 boepd.
Year end production at 4,000 boepd (i.e. as per RNS of 3rd March - though this could be brought forward to Oct?)
And I've added the 2 new wells production to Q12021 - hence 5,000 boepd by March 2021.

We await their guidance in Q3 - I hope July.

https://www.energymixreport.com/cameroons-gas-to-power-market-in-distress-as-state-firm-announces-generation-drop/

My error: $1.32m - $830m = $460K. Tighter than I thought.

Thanks. Very useful to have the different perspectives.
End of March net cash was $1.32m. Cash reduction is about $340-430K a quarter. Thus, by end of September cash will be $730K. I think they can run it a few more months to November.
I bought a very small stake, a punt, but don't want to put in more if there is to be a placing soon. Like Investoroil says, perhaps better to hold on to your money for now and buy in the placing? Too, perhaps it would be sensible to only back the company once the licence/s has been extended?
This is the dilemma.

Investoroilgas - from previous posts I see you expect a placing from July-September.
Looking at cash, I would think there is enough to last until xmas?
Geowis, like me, thinks that 'Before this [placing] they need the nod from Namcor on extending the block.'
I would argue that they will first RNS the block extension (end of Sept), and on the back of that good news, and prospect updates, and PR campaign, and closer to major Namibia drills, then run a placing.
So my expectation of a placing is more likely November.
Is this delusional?

https://www.businessincameroon.com/energy/0107-10486-the-afdb-praises-the-impacts-of-the-planned-extension-of-the-kribi-gas-fired-power-plant
https://www.businessincameroon.com/public-management/0107-10488-cameroon-csph-recorded-cfaf7-bln-drop-in-its-net-result-between-2017-and-2019
https://www.businessincameroon.com/energy/3006-10482-cameroonian-startup-ndoto-sarl-develops-a-smart-meter-that-helps-reduce-fraud
https://www.businessincameroon.com/economy/3006-10481-covid-19-cameroon-s-international-trade-exchanges-fell-by-16-in-h1-2020

Yes, but, this is my estimate, not theirs - for which we will hear from them soon.
Basically, they have a certain schedule of work to get through; so that, and what turns up in the drilling programme, and the end markets for the product, will determine the average of fluctuating production levels. [Note: I made an estimate for March, on the basis of there being delays to knowing work outcomes, of 5,000 boepd.] Too, in their long reply, they point to other factors that are of importance, for example 'Price' i.e. - if we can get double the price, but half the production, then its of same value; etcetera.

I emailed the company about production. I was most impressed by the speed and comprehensiveness of their response; and I would recommend shareholders contact IR with their enquiries - they couldn't have been more helpful.

Regards production, after reading their reply I think my estimated figures in my post of Tues 9.42 probably remain in the right ball park. Guidance for 2020, and on, is under review - and they anticipate providing that as soon as possible, but definitely within Q3.

https://www.trafigura.com/locations/
https://www.reuters.com/article/trafigura-beheer-argentina-idUSL8N1O82EN

should read 'Q12021'

Yes, I found (iv) the most interesting part - I'm expecting (iii) to be a negative result, perhaps even an exit; and (i) and (ii) to be good for production, but delays pushing much of the increase into Q12020, where we might have 5,000 boepd by March.
I hope the Trafigura plan will be announced before or at the AGM of 22nd July. It would be even better if they announced an acquisition there and then. From a PPC perspective, I would expect diversification to remain in Latin America and onshore - but I expect acquisition to mainly be in Argentina, and linked to supplying Trafigura's refineries. This link is probably key to any expansion outside of Argentina? Of course, Trafigura is truly global - so, with Trafigura as a partner, the whole world opens up for PPC:
https://www.trafigura.com/about-us/assets-and-alliances/
https://www.trafigura.com/products-and-services/oil-and-petroleum-products/

Expected Newsfow - from Trafigura Q&A:
Q: So what's next for President?
A: In no particular order:
(i) new compressors and infrastructure for gas in Rio Negro in operation at or around the
end of Q3, slightly delayed as a result of the dislocation of supply chains included in
importation of parts as a result of Covid-19.
(ii) we have identified and prioritised two potential wells we would like to be drilled later
this year. One gas one oil. Whilst aspirational at this stage with various moving parts,
we have realistic expectations to drill these starting Q3 to take advantage of low prices
from service company's who have seen their work evaporate but have still got high
fixed costs to pay.
(iii) continued work in Paraguay. This is very much not forgotten and continues to be work
in progress. When or if there is something concrete we will say something with an
update anticipated in Q3.
(iv) expansion strategy. Together with our major shareholder Trafigura, we will forthwith
after passing of the resolutions at the forthcoming General Meeting be formulating a
concrete plan to develop our business by way of acquisition. We do not rule out that
this plan would include diversification outside of Argentina.

Answering my own question, i note from the Trafigura Q&A of 3rd June:
'Q: So what's next for President?
A: In no particular order:
(i) new compressors and infrastructure for gas in Rio Negro in operation at or around the
end of Q3, slightly delayed as a result of the dislocation of supply chains included in
importation of parts as a result of Covid-19.'

Thus I would revise my estimated figures to current production of about 3,000 boepd and year-end guidance of 4,000 boepd - if the two wells come in.
I've emailed the company for more information on this.
Did anyone learn anything from the recent presentations on this, or were 'production' figures quietly avoided?

I hoped someone could help me out here.
From RNS 3rd March 2020:
'As a result of the installation of a larger scale compressor, and the opening up of more shut-in wells in Estancia Vieja due in Q2 2020, it is projected that from June Group production should be boosted by a further 800 boepd. In such a scenario, this would by or around the end of H1 2020 result in some 2,000 boepd total net gas production (12 MMscft/d) from President's Neuquen basin assets thereby boosting aggregate oil and gas production net to the Company to 4,000 boepd excluding the impact of drilling results to come in Argentina during H2 2020. '
In the latest presentation (June) I note 2019 year end production was 2400 bopd; and there was a tick against a new gas compressor at Estancia Vieja in H22020. However, there was no information on current production, or guidance for year end. I also note that Las Bases well will add 605 boepd, and the Estancia Vieja drill to add 350 boepd.

Does anyone have other information on what current production is? And should we expect year end production to be about 5,000 boepd?

Too, Gencos have costs, wages, etc.

Note at end of article: ' The Gencos claimed that they only collected payment of between 11 and 30 per cent of their invoiced amount on a monthly basis.'

So I guess SAVP is only getting paid 10 to 30% of invoiced amount [of promised £10m per month free cash flow].

Snaffleman - debts outstanding to GenCos are about $2.58 billion (1 trillion Naira) if my calculations are correct (N387 / $1):
https://www.ripplesnigeria.com/gencos-resist-planned-reversal-of-power-sector-privatisation-allege-n1tn-debt/