Member Info for happysparrow

https://www.investiraucameroun.com/energie/1907-14867-eric-mansuy-eneo-met-tout-en-uvre-pour-assurer-une-facturation-equitable-et-juste

Still waiting for my Buy this morning to be shown - guess the MMs want to give the false impression that people are selling ahead of the upcoming news.

NM, I noted that too.
'not just looking at things relating to 'oil', as it were'. (13.10 mins in).
Did he also mean not gas either? That he is looking to go beyond O&G production/exploration in some way? - for example, midstream transportation, small power generation, or something? - or is that moving into the realms of fantasy?

Two late reported trades for 2.4m shares this afternoon at 3.65p:
Looking at the matching volumes (that is, by counting back a further 2.4m shares traded), this trade seems to go all the way back to the RNS at 12.36 on the 3rd July when the selling price dropped from about 3.65p to 3p on the news of ENEO. Rising from here to the 8th July, then from the 8th July you then got a steady selling price of around 3.65p and buying price at about 4p.
Thus my guess is that these two late reported trades are sells from the 3rd July that caused the drop. They have now been matched by more recent buys. All is equalled out. I would now expect further buys to push the share price up.
Looking on the bright side.

Anthony, you probably don't need reminding a further £800 buy would bring your average price down to 11.3p - then perhaps you have a chance of getting your money back in 6 months, imo?
Though maybe your £800 has a better home to go to (NB: this is not my main share, more a speculative buy)?
Good luck.

Another similar:
https://www.energymixreport.com/cameroon-lowers-the-tension-in-the-electricity-sector-with-a-payment-of-45-billion-fcfa-to-eneo/

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/rare-images-cross-river-gorillas-babies-captured-nigeria-180975296/

Doom-mongers out in force, hoping to buy in lower.
Any day news might drop that Joe and Jethro are commercial - that's the risk of selling down, and the Tullow farm-down.
Too, more prosaically, a general climb back to 30p perhaps on the cards now the main seller seems to have gone.

English version:
https://www.businessincameroon.com/energy/1307-10532-cameroon-government-lowers-tension-in-the-energy-sector-with-the-payment-of-cfaf45-7-bln-to-eneo

Apologies for being un-PC, and now to be 'cancelled'? - What a world. They'll have us all wearing muzzles next :-)

Thanks for confirmation, N2M. All to be revealed at AGM 22nd July, no doubt.

Is this the second time the work has been delayed?
Today: 'In the light of the nature and proximity of drilling in September, the infrastructure work previously scheduled for June in relation to compressors and infrastructure has been re-imagined and re-engineered so that the work will be carried out in parallel with the drilling to facilitate the differences in pressures and volume.'
That is, it will be completed by late November.
June 3rd - Trafigura Q&A (Circulars and documents):
'Q: So what's next for President?
A: In no particular order:
(i) new compressors and infrastructure for gas in Rio Negro in operation at or around the
end of Q3, slightly delayed as a result of the dislocation of supply chains included in
importation of parts as a result of Covid-19.'
This work was originally scheduled to be completed in H12020.
This is from 3rd March RNS:
'As a result of the installation of a larger scale compressor, and the opening up of more shut-in wells in Estancia Vieja due in Q2 2020, it is projected that from June Group production should be boosted by a further 800 boepd. In such a scenario, this would by or around the end of H1 2020 result in some 2,000 boepd total net gas production (12 MMscft/d) from President's Neuquen basin assets thereby boosting aggregate oil and gas production net to the Company to 4,000 boepd excluding the impact of drilling results to come in Argentina during H2 2020. '

Year end guidance (my assessment) given the following:
From 3rd June RNS - Trafigura + Market Update: 'President's gas production in Argentina remains in line with expectations, at or around 1,000 boepd (6MMScft/d)' (variations principally due to pressure constraints in main regional pipeline, thus outside of PPCs control?).
From today's RNS: 'the workovers are targeting total initial production of 3.5 Mmscft/d of gas and 50 bopd.' Not completed until early Oct?
Thus I would now expect a conservative year end guidance to be about 3500 boepd (with some natural decline); with a further 1000 boepd dependent on if the Las Bases development well and EVN exploration well come in on time and as expected (COS of 75%).

Have I got the sums about right?

GGG - having just noted the Market Update tagged onto the end of the Trafigura RNS of 3rd June I now would add a further item to expected newsflow, being:
Awaiting confirmation of Rio Negro 10 year licence extension recently applied for.

In doing my research, somewhat stupidly, I missed the Market Update of the 3rd June. It has been tagged on to the RNS called 'Subscription for new ordinary shares by Trafigura'. This is an important update and explains well the position PPC is in, and should give a better idea of expected production levels (currently about 3,000 boepd), and expected realisation prices. Note that gas production variation is principally due to pressure constraints in the main 'regional' pipeline. Thus, it seems out of PPC's control - and the work they have done on their 16km section of the Rio Negro pipeline is to no effect until the 'regional' pipeline problems are sorted? [Note: this might be a completely ignorant question as I have no knowledge in this area - and would be glad for some comments from someone with a little more expertise here.]

Weasel words from Eneo - but a contract is a contract. They must be feeling the heat.
Well done, Roy, for bringing matters to a head.

Article 14th February:
https://www.energymixreport.com/cameroon-will-reimburse-electricity-firm-eneo-a-first-tranche-of-fcfa-45bn/

Thanks Harel and Wallact.
Combining your posts, I'm hoping the market update due next week will be solid news regards the commerciality of the tertiary heavy oil find, or new information on the cretaceous play that increases its COS. Even better, of course, would be some definite drilling plans for Guyana.
I hope it is not just waffle on upcoming drills this year by others in Namibia.

Over-cautious imo, Phoebus.
O&G markets dependent on commodity prices. Yes, recession will dampen demand in the West (not China, so much); but this virus nonsense should end soon. So expecting oil price to remain in $40 - $45 this year; and perhaps rise 20% in 2021.
I've stayed fully invested throughout this crash. Portfolio now up 140% since year lows and above (just) pre-crash levels. This would have resulted in a big loss if anything of this had remained in cash. Feel that recovery has not been priced into many small O&G shares of yet; so remain a value buyer at these levels, nothing in cash.
Lady Luck will have her way, of course.

22nd July - almost certain imo to give us current production figures and year end guidance. Also expect detailed work schedule for rest of year. Too, I would hope for a lot more information on the Trafigura partnership and general business direction resulting from that. By 23rd July, I would not be surprised to see the SP at 2.4p+ (it all depends on the quantity left of our current main seller that has pushed this below 1.5p recently).
Only problem for me is that I've just started building a stake here; and am waiting for some cash to come in before I can buy more - with my luck, this might be out of reach before then!
C'est le vie.

Yes, GGG. In my newsflow notes I've also got:
Strategic Plan with Trafigura (+ acquisition?, possibly new country);
Argentinian base gas price to be set at $3.5 mmbtu?
News on Paraguay (possible exit?).

Added this morning at 3.63p.
Possible prospects for the next 6 months (that might be mentioned by Roy Kelly in July update, and strategic plan):
a) $9m owed by ENEO will be paid (perhaps after receiving World Bank Funding)
b) Sale, or farm-out progress in Russia (and perhaps some conclusion at Kermokol).
c) Progress on Etinde/Aksa deal
d) resolving of legacy legal disputes
e) Matanda - licence extension, farm-out partner
f) LA-108 well remediation completed (even starting would be nice!)
g) sign up of new gas customers
h) The big one ! - Merger/takeover with either New Age or SEY.