Member Info for Happyhaddock

@ napth - I know you instinctively dismiss everything I say as de-ramping, although I am at a loss to see what about my last post you object to. However if you don't like the way I phrased my point let me simply copy and paste the way UFO themselves phrased the point in their own RNS.

"To be considered a Mineral Reserve, modifying factors must be applied to the Mineral Resource estimate as part of the preparation of a prefeasibility study (PFS) or a feasibility study (FS). The estimated amount of saleable material contained in the final product must demonstrate a positive Net Present Value (NPV) using an appropriate discount rate and must demonstrate that eventual extraction could be reasonably justified."

@Dip666 - as well as moving our iron ore resource up the catagories, perhaps more importantly is moving it from resource to reserve.

Hopefully with near surface DSO there will be a good correlation, but it would be foolish to assume 100% conversion.

@picuzawinnah - That our share price should arguably worth a lot more isn't the issue in my mind, but it all comes down to sentiment, both wider sentiment and also specific to UFO. With sentiment the way it is with news largely being ignored it isn't all that surprising to see the share price where it is.

Whilst central banks are propping up mainstream markets to the point of almost guaranteeing big profits most investors have no incentive to look further afield and take bigger risks or consider safe heaven investments and commodities. Yet the need for safe haven investments that will survive a crisis becomes all the more important as those central bank interventions make the whole system less and less stable.

So for many months the majority of the junior exploration sector has been feeling like a value trap. That feeling has been exaggerated with UFO after its crazy spike to 3p with few now looking our way, and those that are looking are all focusing on how far down it has fallen and getting bored waiting for others to start buying the price back up again. Plus, for all the big drop, UFO is still multiples of what it was even 12 or 18 months ago so I'm still looking on it as a good company that has proved a good investment for me and which has even more potential to do even better.

Investments in junior explorers always have to be long term to see any meaningful profit, with most reckoning on 5-7 years. In that context having a bad few months, or even a bad year is neither here nor there if the underlying fundamentals keep improving. All that maters is that you are patient enough to still be holding when sentiment does return... If that's 2-3 months from now great, if it's another 6-12months then I'll still be holding.

There comes a point when you start to feel we share holders need some sort of clear statement about what the heck is going on behind the scenes.

The obvious and perhaps only explanation is that our BOD see things as being far more advanced than we share holders have ben told.. which is sort of a good thing... but this activity really isn't what you expect from a junior explorer that theoretically on paper is still far from having a clearly defined mineral reserve...

I really think we need some sort of statement about the wider picture and what is driving all this "unexpected" expenditure.

Is it possible some sort of NDA has been signed with somebody to keep the share holders and markets in the dark whilst a plan is executed?

Whilst nobody likes to see dilution, investors tend to look far more favourably on significant investment from a company's directors as it is seen as a vote of confidence.

So, perhaps the lack of a move in the share price indicates how the markets are treating this as a self neutralising non-event.

@silverhorse - whilst I thank you for the support, I've never seen myself as a "big time" investor. My lifestyle has never been driven by the need for the large incomes needed to sustain big investments, secondly I favour enough diversification as to not take the risk of big time investments.

Also I've no idea how much experience others have all I can say is that I first started taking an interest in how my savings were or were not working for me back in the 80's and I've dabbled in various forms of investment on and off ever since. If I've learned anything it is that markets keep rewarding the cautious and patient and eventually spank those with the arrogance to assume they know what they are doing.

The other side of the steel story is the coking coal story. Steel works need both iron ore and coke and the price of coking coal has been no less volatile than iron ore so I'd not ignore the potential connection for demand for iron ore to be linked to coke supply/prices.

Trying to make long term forecasts about demand from an industry subject to such short term volatility is always going to be a huge challenge. You can make hugely bullish or bearish forecasts and in such uncertain economic times the thing we can probably say with greatest certainty is that we are likely to be wrong through overlooking the surprise factor that ultimately ends up being most relevant in the future.

I think the best economic forecast I ever read was a historic quote from J P Morgan who, when pressed for a definitive statement, confidently predicted that the markets would keep fluctuating.

slowly, interview by interview BBG's finding his own style of "salesmanship" based around plain talking, communicating that he knows what he's doing and that he's just getting on with it for the share-holders.

@napth - I know you've taken it upon yourself to instinctively hurl insults at me rather than actually dispute any of the points I ever raise.

However I've made a simple statement that is either right or wrong. I've not found anything in Fenix's annual report to suggest where TP got their figures from, though it is a lengthy document. If you wish to point me to the relevant page of Fenix's annual report I'll happily acknowledge that I am wrong and have simply missed the appropriate comment.

"Assuming Fenix’s own production cash costs of (US$47/t)"

@ Max111 - I'm not disputing that you've accurately quoted what Turner Pope have written, but I'd be very curious to know where Turner Pope got that figure from. Fenix put out their annual report only a few days ago and their headline figures seem to imply somewhat higher costs than Turner Pope imply even when converted from AUS$.

If TP are correct and Fenix's production costs as a small producer are as low as $47/t then it paints UFO's iron ore in a far more rose tinted and potentially profitable light.

Pleased to see the MRE come in at the upper end of my own estimates as I was prepared for less than 10mt, though as Eeyorewaysis says let's just sit back and let the market do it's thing and see where the price ends up.

@stevomining - I've been following the story myself, indeed it was only a couple of weeks ago that the thought police here lambasted me for suggesting we needed to remain aware of the possibility that iron ore prices may fall back below small producers operating costs. These individuals do however have a tendency to criticise any and all cautionary projections but later use them to temporarily excuse or defend situations that don't pan out in a manner that fits their own narrative.

The other "elephant in the room" regarding iron ore is the huge production coming back on line after problems in Brazil. There have been a few studies of late showing that growing global demand can be met by the output of existing producers currently operating on costs below $65/t.

We don't know where ore prices or demand may be a year or more from now as global economies are so volatile, but it is always wise to consider a range of possibilities, plan for the worst and hope for the best.

@EeyoreWaysis - I'm not quite sure how the analogy compares as life long loyalty to a football club and supporting them through thick and thin is typically viewed as a good thing. Conversely getting emotionally attached to an investment and clinging to it regardless of its losses might not be so sensible.

However I do get the idea that UFO looks to be a long term keeper and that its future prospects are enough to justify riding out any short term volatility or drops in price. The current low price might not be so appealing to those of us who have been here a while, but I don't see it as any reason to become emotional or worried.

@EeyoreWaysIs - never ben a footie fan but the analogy is spot on. Little of what is said here is nuanced debate about the pros and cons of this investment, instead this board can be reminiscent of a pantomime where everything ends up exaggerated to polemic extremes.

Great for a study of people, but not so useful for learning about UFO.

@Dip666 - the real problem with relying on common sense is that the term is somewhat of a misnomer, the very heuristics and biases you mention are what lead us to instinctively make decisions that may not be in our best interests without ever stopping to question them.

What we consider to be common sense is by its very nature not common and doesn't intuitively make sense to many people. It tends to be something we can rationalise to ourselves after the event as having been a more sensible thing to have done, but very few will rationally analyse all options in advance and come up with an approach that would later be deemed common sense.

It's not that people can't make the sensible decisions through lack of intelligence, more that they get emotionally tied to one view and don't take the time to explore other opinions... the very definition of heuristics is the "mental shortcuts" we take to avoid spending time analysing all options.

@silverhorse - I thank you for the compliment but there's a real risk in listening to any one opinion and valuing it above all others, and that includes my own opinion as much as anybody else's . Listen to what everybody here has to say but don't give much credibility to any of it.

Statistics show that nearly all private investors underperform the markets and about three quarters actually lose money through predictably irrational behaviour. If you want to profit from the markets learn the ways that human behaviour can be irrational, and that the most common is to assume we are some how the exception that isn't irrational.

Behavioural finance is a controversial subject ignored or even passionately denied by the believers of the rational actor model, but may be something to look into if you want to learn a bit more about how we are all instinctively conditioned to act against our own best interests without realising that's what we are doing.

Well I know there are some folk that will automatically shoot me down just for suggesting caution but...

UFO definitely seems undervalued at the moment with sentiment against us, so it could arguably be claimed to deserve a higher share price without even needing the JORC. However the real value of any asset is the ability to monetize it.

I'd like to hope that the markets will attribute some decent value to an MRE for our iron ore at the Sirius extension. A few months ago I'd predicted that I thought expectations of goods news may move us much closer to 3p during this autumn and hoped that enough good news would arrive in time to sustain such a rise. However if sentiment is really against us we may have to wait until the announcement of some sort of sale, JV or clear business plan as to how we plan to profit from the iron ore before we see significant price moves in relation to the Sirius extension.

I take heart from the fact that the fundamentals justify a higher price, and the longer the price is held back by poor sentiment, the higher it is likely to shoot once sentiment returns.

"Of course they know more than they are letting on. You would not say you've got x£M of gold on your land then offer £ 000's. Not sure about others, but Im watching a very positive story unfold"

There's definitely some truth to that but at the same point there are rules about timely release of market sensitive information. I don't think there can be any doubt about the confidence of our management, but I'd love to know where the boundary is between acting on proven facts we don't yet know, and acting on instinct and experience about what they expect to soon be proved as fact.

Junior exploration companies always entail risk, I suppose I am interested in how risk tolerant or averse our own management are, though there is definitely some comfort to be drawn from the fact this "isn't their first rodeo" so I do assume they understand the risks.

" I thought CB didn't look well, too. Wasn't sure if it was my imagination."

My very first thought when the video started was how noticeable it was that he'd lost weight and to wonder if he is unwell.

I've also been wondering for a few weeks about the reasons behind such a rapid pace of "development" that seems well ahead of confirmed drill data.

I genuinely hope there's no connection between these two observations to suggest either is the cause of the other.

You can go on the bulletin boards of almost any junior explorer and finds claims of their company being the next GGP.

Almost all are here in WSBN because we believe it is a possibility (some optimists might go so far as to say a probability?), however what we hope for or believe is irrelevant to the long term prosperity of the the company. If drilling finds large gold reserves we get rich, if drilling confirms there's nothing down there we don't. Until we get drill results we are speculating about other peoples sentiment, excitement and willingness to move the share price by buying in to the narrative.