Member Info for Happyhaddock

@smiller - fair enough, although I'd not picked out any of the vibrant blue/greens I usually associate with copper minerallisation within the photo, but as you say the pXRF has suggested very good copper grades and I'm certainly keen to see what else actually shows up once we get formal lab results back for each drill hole.

@smiller, I'm no geologist but in the majority of cases copper mineralisation shows up as a blue/green colour. If you know other wise and can positively identify the numerous and varied minerals in the picture to identify a specific copper bearing mineral then I'll take your word on it, but if not I'd caution against assuming that a lot of orange/red/brown colour indicates copper.

As Dip666 says, probably best to wait for formal lab analysis, although it seems likely that EH will offer decent copper results.

the London stock exchange simply lists it as two price monitoring extensions, no actual news from WSBN, just a lot of buying/selling activity.

Whilst it is inevitable that we will speculate about what the future holds, we must remember that is all we are doing. Clearly much is going on behind the scenes at ECR and the bits we are getting to hear about all seem positive. However, whilst there remain lots of various options and possibilities regarding plans and timescales, the safest approach is always to wait for more information to conclusively "joins the dots" ... once that happens the markets will revalue ECR accordingly.

Well CB is certainly spending money like it's burning a hole in his pockets.

The info and results us shareholders have been given so far hints at all sorts of possibilities, whilst CB's actions are as close as you can get to shouting so many things are certainties... it does make me wonder what we've not been told?

Obviously everybody is entitled to their own views and must do what works for them, so there's no dishonour in taking a profit if it presents itself and moving on.

Myself I've never subscribed to the idea of having an exit price, as it is all too easy end up selling things you shouldn't simply to lock in "some" profit even if an investment may now be better value than when you first bought. I simply buy things I believe have great prospects and work on the principle of repeatedly answering one question. " Do I still believe there's a good chance this will be worth more in 2-3years time?" ... I'd only sell if I no longer see growth potential.

I believe it was Warren Buffet that once said the ideal time to plan to hold an investment for is "forever". There is however the old joke that you can't consider yourself a true value investor until you've had at least one bad decade waiting for things to fulfil their potential ;-)

@smiller - I've never been the sort that believes in discussing/disclosing personal financial details, but as I've said before being "poor" goes with the job description of being an artist. So if comments others do make here about their own investments are to believed my holdings in UFO are at best modest, being the largest of what is now seventeen positions I hold in my diversified portfolio of junior explorers.

I'd certainly agree with Chris2 that had I invested £50k in UFO back when it was around 0.1p and seen it x30bag then the profits involved would have been too big for me to not have taken a lot out. However I'm not so wealthy as to have initially risked £50k on an unknown junior explore with a mkt cap of a mere $2m.

With the global economy as it is at the minute I think there's considerably risk putting money in to any equities, even the biggest "safest" blue chips

@Chris 2 I certainly recognise that a thirty bagger is rare but how rare depends upon the prices you look to buy in at.

A company with a mkt cap of $1bn is really going to have to do something unbelievable to x30 bag. A mkt cap of $100m still is unlikely to x30 bag.

However if you can find unheard of little companies with mkt caps around $2m or so, then whilst the risk is far greater they can x10 bag or x30 bag and still be a really tiny company that goes under most people's radar meaning they still have a chance to further x10bag from there in to the hundred bagging category.

As you say most junior explorers don't make it, and the exploration sector as a whole averages losses of billions a year which is why I'd never put more in than I can afford to lose. However there are two sorts of caution; the caution that leads you to properly research and evaluate risks, and then there's the caution that stops you taking risks.

I'm under no illusions as to the risk I'm taking with UFO (which may or may not be the case with everyone here?) but I think over the long term the balance of probabilities is in my favour.

@Chris2 - I doubt anybody is ever "happy" to lose even a penny of paper profits but as others have said it all depends upon your long term view, something which not everybody has. I've said before I've watched UFO x30bag on my initial purchase price, know it was overvalued and at increased risk of dropping over the short term, but I was, and I remain, content to ride out any period of volatility as it seems likely it will be much higher a few years from now. Even if it does spend a while down at the prices you predict I still have the option to cash out at a decent profit.... If you buy the right stock at the right price it affords you that luxury and makes it easier to patiently ride out the ups and downs.

As a junior explorer UFO has lots of potential risks and I try not to ignore any of them, one of which is volatility. I also know that some on this board can hurl abuse at anybody that chooses to mention the possibility of downsides or risks, but I don't let that get under my skin or affect my investment strategy. I'm here because I believe over the long term the potential rewards outweigh the potential risks, and that trading in and out chasing gains from the volatility is one of those risks I can control and eliminate.

The thing that astounds me about the attitudes on this board are how many take absolute views about future uncertainties, and then how passionately they defend them against anybody who suggests otherwise.... the "if you are not one of us you must be one of them" mentality, and the unhealthy mistrust this breeds. I'm also surprised at how many cling to the idea that ramping or de-ramping actually has a major impact on daily share price moves, if this was the case surely somebody would have presented some evidence to show this by now?

All explorers entail a large degree of risk centered around a wide array of future uncertainties, it seems equally foolish to deny the possible downsides as it does to deny the upsides UFO presents.

There's an oft' quoted line that you should never invest more in this sector than you can afford to lose, and that we all need to decide for ourselves where the balance of probability lies and how that fits with our own risk tolerance.

Myself I am a patient LTH happy to wait and see if UFO can deliver on its significant potential, if it does then I should profit handsomely, if it doesn't then those are the risks I'm happy to take. What the share price does next week or month is irrelevant noise to me and not part of the larger story.

Aside from issues of whether dishonest ramping or de-ramping has any bearing on a share's daily price moves, of which there seems to be scant evidence of any correlation, every one will have different views on a company shaped by their different goals.

What makes an excellent investment for one person with one set of goals, may be terrible for another in different circumstances with different needs.

The exploration sector is very volatile, so anybody relying on short term gains is always taking big risks and setting themselves up for possible disappointment, but so long as a company can keep doing the right things and improving their fundamentals whilst sentiment is against them, then they are setting up greater pressure for a big move up when sentiment changes.

UFO comes with no guarantees, but is doing plenty to make itself attractive at the current price. Maybe I have a longer time frame and more patience than most but it doesn't really matter much to me where the share price is six months or a year from now. I'm focused on improving fundamentals as share prices always catch up with those eventually.

Well, we will never know just how much of an effect they will have had on our SP, but we can all agree that selling pressure won't have been positive, so here's hoping it was a major effect whose absence should now really benefit us.

@Dip - it's probably not something folk here will care about, but it seems more than that, in so much as there are various ways of handling statistics and weighting data to get from a set of drill results to a calculated resource. I was expecting the JORC code to be more prescriptive of how they expected you to process the numbers so that two different geologists would both get the same end result if given the same set of exploration data to work with. (though I'd assume any difference in end results wouldn't be huge)

Not that the above contradicts your point, what matters is proving the viability of the project, where as you say UFO has access to the skills to do the work.

"Added bonus is we do sign a JV on Creswick with the partner taking the exploration costs...and then sub contract out our drilliing crew for them and actually have an income drilling our own license :-)"

That's the kind of cynical business approach that makes folks money ;-)

@EWT98- I agree there is potential for a much greater return in going in to production ourselves, but the slower timescale also brings with it more risk as future production costs and ore prices fluctuate. No doubt management will look at any offers received and decide which route to take us.

As for the Sirius extension being 10-15mt of ore, you may be right but my own "back of fag packet" type rough calculations playing with a few key volumes and densities would suggest that's an upper estimate and that it may be safer to expect a little below 10mt. I'm prepared for as low as 5mt but would be disappointed if the official figures came back as low as that.

Plus another thing I've been trying to get my head around in reading (or at least skimming through) the JORC code is the exact statistical modelling and standards used to arrive at a resource from certain given data. I'd assumed it was a fixed method meaning everybody would get the same results out if starting with the same data, though that may be niave of me given the hugely variable geology around Australia and the sorts of data it may or may not be possible to collect. My first impression is that the JORC code is more about providing enough details about the data collection and modelling methods you choose to use so that other professionals can verify your calculations and decide for themselves the suitability of your modelling approach.

If , and I repeat "if" my understanding as layman skimming through this for the first time is correct, then a JORC resource might not be such an absolute number as I was expecting....

@smiller - "HH your probably closer to the correct number sadly"

we all know I try to keep my expectations cautious and grounded so I'd hope the odds are in favour of being more than I allow myself to expect, where at the end of the day though we are speculating about an unknown derived from a combination of many other future unknowns.

Even if we only have to wait until 2022 for some sort of resolution that's plenty of time for circumstances to change, and if we do end up going it alone who knows where things may be by 2023. It's not as if we are in a stable economic climate where we can have a lot of confidence with forward projections either to the upside or downside.

As I've said I'm happy to wait it out with UFO because of my hopes for EH, if all the Sirius extension does is fund drilling at EH I'll take it as a win.

Just a quick note in relation to TP's in-ground valuation of £8/t back in Feb - remember that's based upon tonnage of Fe not tonnage of ore. So if we are assuming ore at approx 60% grade that's a whisker under £5/t of in ground ore back when DSO sold for around $150/t.

@silverhorse "HH - The best plan here is to get a large chegue - do you agree? Bring stability to the share price confidence to shareholders this under 1p is a serious problem!"

Can I ask if there's a reason you seem to address most of your posts here to me, or am I misunderstanding your frequent use of HH?

Anyway to answer the question; I trust our BOD will look at the potential economics of all options available and make the best decision. Based upon the limited info available to us at the moment I'd favour selling the Sirius extension outright to put some cash in our coffers and lock in a return now rather than be subject to fickle moves in the future iron ore price, after all we claim to be an explorer rather than a miner. A big checque in the next six month would also offer us a bit of financial security going forward with our other projects, but would be dependent upon actually having a worthwhile offer on the table to accept.

@turbo as you say, nobody will pay more than they have to to purchase anything, and will of course base any price offered on how much profit they expect to be able to make.

I'd see an in ground valuation of below $5/t as cautious and above $8/t as optimistic. So on the nominal 10mt mentioned I'd not be far off the range of valuations you mentioned.

@dip666 - I have contacted UFO before, and whilst I have received automated acknowledgements from their computer systems, I've never had a human being actually reply to respond to points raised. Though that is not to say my points were ignored.