Member Info for Happyhaddock

I began the year suggesting that UFO would likely stagnate through the first half of 2021. In June I said that I was not expecting the share price to shoot up any time soon, but volatility may nudge us out of the approx. 0.9 to 1.2p range it had been previously trapped in. Back then I also predicted that expectations of good news may finally push the share price a bit nearer to the previous high of 3p as we moved through autumn, but actual news flow would have to be supportive if the price was not to be dropping back at Christmas.

Although plenty of news did arrive throughout autumn, I was overly bullish to hope this would significantly move the share price. That is to say in July we dipped to about 0.7p, and despite a little excitement in late October, struggled to get back above 1.2p. So despite starting the year around 1.1p, and significantly improving our fundamentals since then, we approach the end of the year below 0.7p.

Last spring I challenged a chorus of passionate suggestions that we'd end 2021 with a double digit share price through having begun mining iron ore. Since then I've been accused of de-ramping whenever I've cautioned against similarly impatient predictions. The only thing I will claim with confidence about price moves over the next six months is that when forecasts are conflicted many predictions will likely be wrong. I'm guessing that we may have to endure the disconnect between good news and price stagnation for a little longer but, in a volatile sector powered as much by emotion as reason, share prices can erratically overshoot one way or the other without warning. Consequently little would surprise me. Our ambitious plans are well funded for the coming months, but the longer we keep advancing multiple projects the more inevitable further placements become.

Falling sentiment in the whole exploration sector has left us below what many here consider fair value. There are no guarantees of immediate riches but I believe that at current prices UFO's long term risk/reward ratio favours the patient shareholder. So whilst the sector continues to feel like a value trap, I will keep focusing upon UFO's improving fundamentals more than our share price.

With artificially created inflation currently overwhelming deflationary forces I will repeat what I said six months ago that macro-economic conditions remain "unprecedented". Whilst central banks' extreme interventions keep pushing up mainstream markets, momentum will follow the quick and easy profits. So, until fear displaces greed as a motivator, "defensive" investments could remain out of favour and disconnected from their underlying fundamentals. However, as many things could suddenly trigger a change in sentiment, it may prove beneficial to patiently maintain an appropriate position to hedge against seemingly inevitable problems in an unstable global economy.

Happy new year and good luck to all!

I'd just like to repeat some thoughts I posted more than a year ago as the sentiment seems as valid today as when first written.

Like many here I first invested in UFO when the mkt. cap. was just £2m and I remain a patient and hopeful share holder. However, with many having excitedly bought the recent highs, and with falling prices making folk insecure, more of the posts on this board have become emotional complaining and personal insults.

So, whilst there is no reason that anyone should care about my views, might I remind people of the obvious!

1) AIM exists specifically as a fund raising mechanism for smaller companies to try and grow. Routine share dilution is therefore par for the course for explorers with no other source of income to try and advance their inherently risky projects. If you are impatient, can't handle the uncertainty and price volatility or don't trust a company's management then you shouldn't speculate in such shares.

2) Countless statistics show that almost all private investors underperform broader market indices and about three quarters actually lose money trading stocks. So remember, an investment's ability to meet your expectations doesn't depend on what another, potentially ill informed, investor hopes might happen in the future, it depends upon how realistic your own expectations were at the time you decided to invest.

3) Bulletin boards typically represent the views of a most passionate vocal minority, where sensible investors do not act upon the opinions of such emotional strangers on the internet. If someone hasn't learnt to do their own research and take responsibility for their own actions they will likely have already lost whatever wealth they had to invest.

4) In Consequence it may be delusional to assume that overzealous arguing directly influences enough of the wealthy to drive any share price either up or down. Not that this stops that vocal minority from endlessly complaining and accusing others of "ramping" or "de-ramping" when things aren't going as they hoped for.

5) Nobody benefits from acting on emotion. Simply learn from your mistakes if you have speculated with more than you can afford to lose or allowed yourself to form unrealistic expectations about risks, valuations and timetables.

It is possible to calmly debate conflicting opinions in a respectful manner by presenting opposing facts to support an alternate view point. However, many posts are simply insecure rants seeking to vent frustration; posts which aren't actually making any point about investing, the economy or the company in question. They are merely bolstering their own delicate egos by trying to belittle or silence people with differing opinions. At other times valid points are devalued by the offensive and inarticulate ways they are expressed.

So does anybody further their own cause or credibility if what they have written makes them seem like a petulant school yard bully throwing a tantrum?

Don't know what's going on at the moment but all day pretty much every attempt I've made to buy reverts to negotiated trade as not currently available.

I can get 100 shares for close to £50 but my brokers can find no more to sell to me.

Personally I've always been far more interested in EH and environs than the iron ore, and so I'm pleased to see us acquire full ownership. We are however a very small company with an ever expanding portfolio, and to be worth the costs we do need to be moving licenses forward not just collecting them.

So far our CEO has been pretty active in keeping lots of plates spinning in the air. So whilst I've no complaints he isn't taking the easy route and we are setting ourselves up for some ever expanding exploration costs at a time we still have no income stream.

I think the main thing to consider is the extent to which sentiment is merely returning to "normal" after the mania of 2020 and how low in absolute terms rather then comparative terms, sentiment actually is now.

I suspect that having massively overshot one way, things have overshot a bit the other, but the whole sector had an awful lot of exuberance to clear out simply to find a sensible level.

Asking how much longer the sector can keep falling is never going to be easy to answer, but I suspect the biggest clue is to look at charts going back 20+ years to see how much disruption the sector has endured recently and where you might deem a reasonable level to be. Then ask how "unreasonable" current macro economics are and how or why that might lead things to settle at an abnormal level.

Everyone will come up with their own answers and reasons but nobody actually pretends to know, even the experts are making it up as they go along in these extraordinary times.

@napth I've little to gain from arguing with you as entering in to a battle of wits with an unarmed opponent is demeaning for all involved...

However, has it crossed your mind the reason many of my posts across many of my shares of late have been similar is because sentiment across the whole mining/exploration sector has been similarly poor? If you have evidence to the contrary then feel free to post it, but I think most would agree that, broadly speaking, share prices in the minerals exploration sector have not done well in 2021. With regards posts containing both positive and negative comments over a year in which our share price has plummeted, well some might call that pragmatic optimism, or at least having an unbiased willingness to acknowledge a wide range of evidence.

As for Steve Todoruk, much like Rick Rule, when he has previously conducted public interviews on youtube he has encouraged the public to contact him about their mining sector investments. I've done just that and I've been most surprised by how gracious he is with his time. I know I'm not the only one on this board to have mentioned contacting him as others have spoken about his replies to them, but no doubt you'll refuse to belief that as well since it doesn't fit your own narrative.

On several occasions now I've asked that if you believe anything I have written to be factually inaccurate then to post some evidence to prove the contrary. Not once have you done so, you simply respond with more juvenile insults that just make you seem insecure .... after all if what I write is really is such rubbish why waste your time responding, let others decide for themselves, or are you fearful others might not come to the conclusion you want them to?

... and just as an aside, given the constant jibes about painting by numbers, what makes you jump to the conclusion I'm a painter. I've merely mentioned that despite my scientific background I'm now an artist, but there are many different branches of the creative arts.

"HH has gone very quite he's sitting back relaxing waiting for 10p +"

Still patiently waiting, though I suspect the wait may be longer than some here hope for. Sentiment in the sector has been down for more than year, but for those with a long term horizon buying in at current prices for many juniors may be appealing. However that's not to say we've had any clear sign that sentiment has turned the corner and prices are guaranteed to shoot upwards immediately.

We must remember that bulletin boards are small bubbles of enthusiasm. The views posted by a tiny number of the most enthusiastic private investors wanting their share holdings to massively increase in value rarely reflect the views of the wider markets that move share prices and we mustn't allow ourselves to get caught up in a feedback loop of confirmation bias.

I always find I'm brought back down to earth when I hear the views of industry professionals that have no particular connection with a company. With that thought in mind it was only last week I had a brief e-mail discussion with Steve Todoruk at Sprott and again took the chance to mention UFO to him. Sadly his views still haven't changed as he still judged us as too small and risky to be of interest, and that a quick flick through the company web-site still showed nothing to excite him. Our fundamentals and share price have come a long way since the first time I spoke to him about UFO, but we've a long way still to go before we even reach a point of registering as small-fry in this sector.

We are a small niche within a quiet backwater of an unloved and slow moving sector which is both a good and bad thing. It makes it hard for us to attract any attention, but it also means a small amount of attention may be all that's needed to make a big difference to our share price.

Our management are doing the right things so I'm happy to sit and hold for the next few years, I just won't be holding my breath whilst I do so as whilst a big jump in price may arrive at any moment, that moment may still be some way down the road.

"The market loves massive silver results u agree HH ?"

I think the more pertinent question is if the markets are paying enough attention to notice regardless of what our results are. Central bank interventions that prop up mainstream stocks are delivering easy profits elsewhere, so our sector is unloved at the minute. Given the state of the global economy I am surprised by how long junior explorers and the mining sector have stagnated. Whilst that can't carry on forever I'm not seeing any sign of change yet as for the last twelve months every time someone here says the price can't fall any lower, then that is just what it does.

So, whilst this isn't a sector that rewards the impatient, it can be very kind to those content to wait... As I've said many times before my plan was, and still is, to wait and see where we are in 2025, though like everyone here I'd be disappointed if it actually takes that long for UFO to show a decent price gain.

Says a lot about what this board has become that on a morning we've great news about EH re--opening people are still arguing about who said what in the past rather than our progress.

I'm sure there are some folk here who spend more time researching each other than Alien Metals itself.

I took a small speculative holding in PUR some time ago as the geology looked good and it seemed to have the financial backing of some big names.

Knowing that such things take time to play out, and only having taken a small punt, I've not followed it too closely but I'm looking in again where the SP isn't much different from 2-3 years ago, yet theoretically we are now a producer. The financials aren't the most transparent but we're seemingly spending more than we are making selling gold and hence losing money.

I just wondered what folks thoughts were about this; Is it simply early days as we ramp up production to economic levels? Is it that the mining is still very much secondary to more exploration? Or is it that management just aren't doing a good job?

Intrinsically the geology still looks great and I'm considering increasing my holding as moving to being a producer should have made us worth more than when I first bought in, but I'm puzzled by where the money is going.

@silverhorse - hindsight is always 20:20, I first bought in at 0.1p and looking back I could have sold at x30 bagger when it topped 3p, and then more than quadrupled my holding buying back at 0.7p. However, I bought this as a long term speculative play with a goal of seeing where we could get to by 2025.

If any short term trader had bought in at 0.1p I very much doubt they'd have made it to 3p to sell out for the big profit, they'd likely to be long gone with a quick profit at 0.2p or 0.5p and then be worrying about what price to try get back in at again and if they'd end up with more or less shares than they started with.

There's nothing wrong with trading, just as there's nothing wrong with being a long term value investor. Either way you need to be clear what your own plan is, and not look back. People lose the most through indecision and changing their minds all the time.

Not in itself a dramatic RNS but another reminder the BOD are not just twiddling their thumbs whilst drawing a salary, they are actively working towards a goal.

As has been said sentiment in the sector this year has been poor but the company has moved forward and achieved a lot even if the SP doesn't reflect this. I've not added to my holdings this year given the poor sentiment and sliding SP and would suggest that making short term price forecasts is a fool's errand, but long term we have great potential where I am content to keep holding regardless of short term price action.

Another RNS "typical" of those we are used to from ECR, which in the current circumstances is probably a reassurance and a good thing if we can imply continuity and business as usual.

That is to say we are an explorer, we're still exploring, our drill results are always good enough to indicate that we are exploring in the right places and both intend, and are financed, to keep drilling a bit more.

At some point we can hope for that spectacular result that goes beyond just being in the right place and screams out that we've finally found what we've been wanting to find.

Just re-listened to the Vox interview, there's a lot of ifs, buts and maybes about starting discussions with Artemis and "best case scenarios" and "if we can agree favourable prices". etc. etc.

It's clear BBG wants the remaining 70%, much less clear there is already a deal on the table for us to accept, I'll wait and see what comes of this as there was also talk of working with Artemis if they couldn't agree a purchase.

@livestock - was it the Vox interview or somewhere else that BBG said the that Artemis' 70% holding was available to us now?

do you have a link?

"Bill said yesterday we got the chance to buy the rest of Munni Munni PGE project that's 70% more"

Did I miss this? I was under the impression the agreement gave us first refusal should it ever come up for sale, not that it was already available.

@smiller - in part I'm with you, I don't believe we should be running too many projects simultaneously if it means extensive dilution to cover the costs. However what I want, or what you want isn't the issue, it's what the BOD decide to do... BBG does seem like somebody who likes lots of plates spinning in the air so we'll see what happens during 2022. Hopefully by the end of 2023 funding lots of active project won't be a problem.

@silverhorse - I think it is futile speculating about what might have happened under different circumstances - we had the placement and we are now where we are.

As for funding future activities I think much depends upon how many such activities we have in the near term, hopefully within 18months if not sooner we should hopefully have some sort of income stream to cover costs. However we do have a lot of irons in many fires and if BBG manages to get all those active in the next few months it could be very expensive ... that in turn could require one or two more placements.

As with any placement it is what is done with the money that makes them good or bad, but for the time being given the funds we have only just recently raised through a placement it is probably premature to be thinking about the next one.

I think there are plenty here who feel uncomfortable with the share price where it is now. Some because they are looking at large paper losses, others like myself who bought in early when the mkt cap was a mere £2m are still showing decent paper profits but are way way down on where they were a year or so ago.

However as has been said you need a strong stomach to invest in volatile AIM listed junior explorers and cannot flinch every time the share price moves. You invest because you believe in the business and stay invested because you believe the BOD are doing the right things to move us forward. Given a long enough time frame fundamentals do eventually start to dominate over short term volatility and fickle sentiment.

I will admit though that is hard to just sit and ignore the moves in share price... myself, over the last year or so I've seen a drop in "paper value" of my own holding in UFO equivalent to more than twice my typical annual wage which has been hard to swallow when the business is in far better place now than back then.

Well Alien are become quite the collectors of licenses... potentially a good addition as it more or less fits in with where we are already spending money exploring and I've always been big believer in the potential of EH and environs. However, going forward it will be good to see any further purchases start to be covered by income from having moved forward existing licenses rather than issuing ever more shares.