Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Neutronic, I'll be surprised if this doesn't fall back to 104, or possibly around 100 when the AZ vaccine hype train begins.
That's the big one of the way though and hopefully it will be onwards and upwards from there. In my opinion, prudent investors looking at buying into Avacta will sit on their hands until the dust has settled on AZ and start to move in thereafter, as one could fairly reliably say that's going to be the bottom... Probably even the lowest it will EVER be again (unless Avacta really mess something up in a big way which seems unlikely at this stage).
Nightingale at the Excel is gone. About ten percent of it used for storage of beds and equipment.
Strange. Maybe hospitalisation not as bad as expected, but historically second waves are worse so why they closed it before seeing what this winter had/has in-store is mystery to me. I don't believe any of the retired nurses who were offering their services got called up either.
Such a big story at the time which has faded away to almost nothing.
Fdh, great post. My understanding is that herd immunity requires 70 percent immunity. The last AZ vaccine stats stated a pooled effacacy of 70.4 percent (iirc, haven't checked that). On that basis, you would surely need an uptake of 85 ish percent for herd immunity resulting from vaccination.
The counter argument is that once you've vaccinated those at highest risk some normality can return regardless.
The counter argument to that however, is the vaccine will likely be less effacious in the at risk age groups and therefore you need that comprehensive roll out across the majority of the population.
In addition, as you have correctly said, the biggest elephant in the room is how long the vaccine will last.
All of the above said, I expect the gov and media to be ramping the t*ts out of the AZ vaccine if it's approved over the coming few days as expected, so hold on tight as it might be a bumpy ride again...
Thanks StarJump. That's the snippet of info I was looking for!
I'm a medium to long term trader mainly based on fundamentals, but regardless will use charts to time entrys and exits...
4d has been on my radar for some time and looks like a good bet in the short, medium or the long term. Furthermore, at this moment in time, it appears it could make a move to 140p fairly quickly even without news.
Taking a position here in the morning.
Thank you. I noted that in the RNS but wondered if there's any knowledge or speculation as to when 'early 2021' is likely to be. Scrolling through Twitter I saw a poster who appears to well informed say mid Jan so wondered if there was any substance behind it
Can somebody tell me whether I'm correct in understanding the proposed merger will take place mid Jan please?
CE mark for professional use is self certification
Shaun P - BAMS has been undergoing clinical validation on CONDOR for quite some time. CONDOR don't seem to be the fastest organisation unfortunately. There's two BAMS tests currently undergoing CV, one of which is the Avacta test. Don't know anything about the other one.
I think we can safely assume it works, as it's already available to buy for research use and has been for some time.
Adeptrix website> store> search "SARS-CoV-2 S1 Glycoprotein Assay"
Each machine can analyse up to 1000 samples per day, although we don't know costs and availablity of the machines. There is an installed base of mass spectrometers around the world, but nobody knows how many. There's really not enough information available at present.
Bluelight - CEO was foolish to give timecales, agreed. However, there's no indication the delays are of his making. I believe it's Cytiva (hence no longer mentioned, just BBI) and CONDOR. I do believe those timescales were given in good faith, but third parties have been the problem. He's probably more frustrated than anybody. It would be fair to argue that one should never make promises on something beyond ones control, though. Furthermore, failing to deliver on time and then selling shares to buy a house is a very poor show. On the other side of the coin however, AVA6000 filing is in on time (as per today's RNS). There's also been lots of left field news from his RNS tombola, beyond anybody's expectations. Covid-19 testing is a sideshow for Avacta in the grand scheme of things, however it must be accepted that's where the market is currently focussed and is the current driver of the share price.
Porky/Kaeren... Exactly, a setting like a care home you wouldnt want anybody who was infectious slipping through the net and a LFT alone wouldn't be appropriate... However, a negative PCR result received within X days with a negative LFT result on arrival would be a fairly bulletproof solution. PCR would be the appropriate one, but it's another situation where a LFT is potentially complimentary.
LFT for less important situations would of course free up some PCR capacity for those where high sensitivity is paramount.
Novacyt is my second largest holding behind Avacta, so I'm absolutely not here to bash a share that I hold!
I read this board at least once a day and I have to say, I find the constant chatter about lateral flow tests very strange - clearly a lot of holders here feel they are a threat to PCR and hence the constant need to rubbish them. There is no evidence to suggest that all LFT's have poor sensitivity, only that it has been the case thus far (Innova). It is extremely likely in my opinion that much better ones will soon be available and these will play a very large role in allowing day to day normality. PCR can't do that, unless everybody has a machine in their house and I doubt even NCYT can pull that off (would be nice though!)
Firstly, the Innova tests are a rebranded product from China. Their data set was questionable and unfortunately the Gov's decision to buy a poor quality product which hadn't been properly validated in the UK has destroyed public confidence in them. Better LFTs will come to market. For example, Avacta have said the minimum standard is 90% sensitivity. Of course, not as good as PCR but great for mass screening or for example you feel fine, not been at risk, but have decided to pop round to your grandmothers for tea and want to do a quick test.
Secondly, the use cases for PCR and LFT tests are different. For example, if you had been exposed to Covid-19, had been traced or had symptoms - clearly you would want a PCR test. If you need just a quick confirmation check or to screen a large number of people very quickly, none of which had any reason to believe they might be positive, (lets say a class of students on a Monday morning) a LFT would be better.
LFT and PCR could also go hand in hand, for example at testing stations. You arrive at a testing station and you are given a LFT and a PCR test. If you had a high viral load, the LFT would pick it up and you could self isolate immediately. If it was negative, the PCR result would subsequently confirm this - especially useful in times of high demand when results are taking longer. The two tests can be completely complimentary!
The above aside, the main reason I find the paranoia strange is the actual competitor to PCR is BAMS and not LFTs.
I don't read every single post on this board, but I have never seen BAMS mentioned once. This could be as good as PCR, possibly even better if it avoids false positives. The thing is though. it is absolutely MONTHS behind and even if it arrived today and every lab had a machine (which they don't), it would barely put a dent in Novacyts revenue.
So please, stop the unjustified LFT bashing. I will stick my neck on the line and say that next year you'll all be using LFT's as part of going about your daily lives - ALONGSIDE PCR. There's no need for the negativity, especially when you're invested in the company who are market leaders and are making so much money nobody knows how to value it.
Big Al could well be warming up his RNS tombola tonight, ready to bring us that transformational Q4.
Seems like the best time to do it, leaving a couple of trading days clear before the weekend. Synairgens bull run lasted for 2 days. Historically he's often done some sort of RNS follow up, even if it's just a chat with his buddy Giles so that could happen next week.
I wouldn't want to place a bet on when an RNS will arrive (as wouldn't surpise me if we get nothing at all this year)... BUT... if I had to place a bet... my money would be on tomorrow.
My view is (and I could be miles off the mark) that BBI have most likely made a new test with some of their standard components. This stands to reason as it would likely be easier and save a huge amount of tooling investment, plus waiting for that tooling to be made. Cytiva haven't even had a passing mention recently, so I'm inclined to say their strip isn't being used. Furthermore, that was for saliva and I would guess that you can't just chuck the same component into a LFT which is using an anterior nasal swab.
So lets run with the idea that Cytiva are out and it's all with BBI, who will be the test developer and primary manfacturer (at least initally).
BBI make LFTs, and also make reagents. So if they're capable of doing the whole lot, why are Avacta involved at all?
First possibility: To my knowledge BBI haven't made any attempt to make their own LFT. Perhaps they just weren't interested in spending out the money doing so, knowing that in due course they would be given something to make anyway. Or possibly they weren't able to make a reagent which was good enough.
Second possbility: The Affimer reagents are really good and BBI couldn't make anything better. That is, sensitive, specific and easily manfactured at scale to meet the demand. I also remembered there's this snippet of information from 11 May RNS which I imagine has been largely forgotten about:
"The Affimer reagents have also now been studied further by Avacta and, importantly, this has shown that there are Affimer reagents that can work in pairs, both binding to the spike protein at the same time. This allows tests to be developed that detect both the intact virus particle and the detached spike proteins which become separated from the virus particle during the development of the COVID-19 disease,"
AS is working towards the following:
"What everyone is clammering for is a test that will identify infectious people and that is roughly two days before symptoms appear (1-2 days after being infected) up to roughly 7 days when the viral load is falling."
If the test is both highly sensitive and specific during the above 9 day time window, plus the swabbing isn't intrusive, then it really will be the 'holy grail' and perhaps Affimers are the key to that.
There must be a reason why BBI and Avacta are still working together all these months later. We know why Avacta need BBI, why do BBI need Avacta? I think the answer lies in the above - option 2.
We can only hope.
I must stress, everything above is just my own speculation and could be absolute rubbish.
This is not an attack on Mologics test, should any ODX investors be reading this. I ALSO HOLD ODX, and NCYT.
My thoughts...
If BBI have re-designed the test, with nasal swab and some of their standard components, and BBI are also the manfacturer, there may not be a 'tech transfer' of a new scalable manfacturing process. it would seem reasonable the prototype, if designed by BBI, would be designed from scratch with the manfacturing process in mind. We don't even know whether the strip from Cytiva is being used anymore (they haven't been mentioned), this could also be a BBI component for all we know.
We have previously been expecting an RNS for tech transfer, but there's obviously been some big changes... so when we receive our next RNS we could be much further on than we anticipated. (Wouldn't that be nice).
Further speculation... if BBI have redesigned the test (and I believe I'm not the only one who thinks this is likely)... why would they have done this with Avacta's Affimer reagents if they weren't good (ie senstive, specific and can be manufacturers at sufficient scale). Whats to stop BBI from obtaining alternative reagents and just going it alone without Avacta and pocketing more of the profits? I can't imagine capital would be an issue, even if it had to be raised from a third party (for very obvious reasons). They wouldn't need any complex distribution network if the UK Gov (and others) took them all off their hands in huge bulk orders.
All the above is just my own speculation whilst we sit avoid twiddling our thumbs in this news void.
Share price seems relatively stable at the level so shouldn't be too much downside from here unless there's a fundamental change. On the other hand, we've been told Q4 for news and this is the end of Q4.
My confidence in AS is significantly reduced at present, but even so I think the chances of a big RNS this week are better than 50%.
This is a great RNS and we already know the UK Gov/NHS are willing to spend on flu prevention (free jabs for over 50's), and infact there's an NHS advert regarding the flu jab on my screen right now. No doubt many other countries offer something similar?
Point being, if the UK Gov/NHS and happy to pay out money to both provide and promote the flu jab, then it seems reasonable to believe they'll also spend money on testing and monitoring of the more problematic strains (sars-cov-2 aside).
I would imagine that if a high number of an unknown strain were detected, this would also be useful as an early warning system and prompt further investigation in the hope of preventing another situation like we are presently in.
In terms of share price, I don't believe we will see any big rise until we get THE RNS. The market wants numbers IMO. There's some great info and research on NCYT (you know who you are), but nobody knows how to value this.
Director buy + new vacancies + Abingdon order...
Seems irrational not to think significant news is imminent...