Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Hi Simon,
The Innova test is only CE marked for professional use and it didn't stop those being rolled out. Surescreen also now have a big Government order, and their website also says only CE marked for professional use.
So yes, you are correct - but this isn't stopping the Goverment procuring and distributing them! Of course, ours is anterior nasal and not nasopharyngeal and will therefore be easier and more comfortable to use!
With the nasopharyngeal swabs, for the sample to be correct not only do you have to get to the back of your nasal cavity, you have to swab the nasopharynx. I'm sure that many people get the swabs far enough back but aren't actually swabbing the right area.
Your concern is valid - but when you look at how difficult the competitions tests are to use and how many of those the Gov have been procuring regardless... it seems like a non-problem to me!
Just having a read through my posts from 6th February. Whilst the timing of the RNS was as I expected, it hasn't panned out quite as I predicted in that I thought the S&S data would be contained within the trading update, not by separate RNS. My
apologies.
I'm slightly confused as to why we now have the S&S (although it's only initial data of course) but don't have a trading update which by Avacta's normal timeline is 3 weeks ish overdue. This is either to bolster the share price and get it back to previous levels before releasing the trading update, or it's because there's something Avacta want to put in the trading update which is probable but not absolute. Of course that could be many things, but it's unlikely to be anything bad IMO.
We are expecting the trading update within the next 7 sessions. I still strongly believe, as per my previous post, the trading update will provide us with a lot more clarity.
Things we know:
-Ongoing clinical studies in both the UK and Europe
-CE marking with Mologic by end of March
-Avacta are the reagent owner and will hold the CE mark in due course
-S&S 96.7%/100% (Initial data). Crucially this is from an anterior nasal swab, not a brain tickler
-Test is to be called "AffiDX" (Affimer Diagnostics) - I assume this is pronounced "Affidex"
-Manufacturing by Abingdon/BBI/ Mologic/Global Access Diagnostics
Things we don't know (at least for certain):
-Is the Mologic test and our test actually the same
-Timescale for lay user study
-Manufacturing capacity of the above
-Will Omega be manufacturing too
-Goverment interest/orders
-How much the tests will sell for (Gov/retail)
-Who's making how much out of each test - how is the pie divided up?
Share price opinion...
I'm sure that many people are dissapointed to see the share price pull back to 13.92%. That's still a nice rise but, it's only taken us level to where we were before the vaccine news. By all acccounts, we should now be at an all time high.
The thing to remember is that whilst some of us are safely in profit, others will have been in the red for some time. If people have been having sleepless nights since last year, they probably just wanted to get out or at least de-risk significantly. Holding is easy once you're well into profit, but not so easy when you've been burnt or you are only just breaking even!
There will be lots of holders just wanting to get out, so there will be selling all the way up to 210ish (although really, anybody who bought at those levels should have averaged down) . At that point, everybody will be in profit, comfortable, and the majority of us probably won't be willing to sell for anything less than the 310 broker target which is, IMO, quite conservative! To be fair, their bull case is about 800p if I remember correctly.
IMO within 7 sessions we will have the trading update which will give us a lot more detail. I expect to see a steady rise, maybe a few 5% days,
Lets get everybody out of the
As PL75 said, Surescreen is a brain tickler swab and not user friendly. These were not permitted in the previous tender. The Government does not want these types of tests so they are just filling the gap for now IMO.
Surescreen is ultimately not a competitor. Our only known competition was Mologic... but we now know we are working with them anyway...
There may be some other A.N. tests appear in time... But as it stands... as far I'm aware the world market is there for the taking.
Let's also remember that the Surescreen test is nasopharyngeal, therefore much more difficult to take the swab correctly and also highly unpleasant too! Not good for regular mass screening. You're not gonna get the general public doing that every morning whilst they're eating their cornflakes.
Regardless of quoted S&S, this will lead to false negatives where people have not put the swab in far enough, or have failed to swab the nasopharynx and have instead swabbed the surrounding tissue.
It takes medical training to do these swabs correctly, so whilst it's become normal recently - letting the public try and do this type of swab to themselves is fairly ridiculous!
The previous tender did not permit these type of tests, it stated saliva or anterior nasal only. I think we can therefore safely assume that nobody was in a position to tender with a test using one of the required sample methods.
These Surescreen tests are therefore not what the government wanted, and we can also therefore believe with some degree of certainty the government will stop procuring these and change to our anterior nasal test as soon as it is available.
"The tests either use a swab sample from either the nose or throat (nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal sample) or a saliva sample. Whichever test is used, the sample is introduced into the test cassette by suspension in a buffer solution."
Trading View is probably the most popular, but I just do it within IG markets. Most brokers offer all the same tools and indicators. I would start by learning the following:
Channels
Support and resistance
Triangle patterns (Ascending triangle is normally highly reliable IME)
Simple moving average
Stochastics
Fibonacci retracement (Avacta made a Fib retracement in the first crash of last year and it was possible to see the likely re-entry point well before it got there)
Ignore charts to your own detriment.
It's ridiculous in many ways to follow charts. Yes MD85... it seems insane to look at what was going on in 2006. It really has no bearing in many ways. BUT it's what traders will use as reference. Charts are largely h*rse sh*t, but because enough people follow the patterns and strategy it, in my opinion, works because it's a self fulfilling prophecy.
All you need to move a price is a lot of people buying or selling at the same time. Whether that's on chart technicals or fundamentals is irrevelant.
There's been so many occasions on the board whether people have been shout "leak!! leak"... "RNS tomorrow!!"... etc
But if you understand the charts, you can see it's just traders moving in because of a technical signal.
Whether you choose to trade or not, learning this stuff is very wise. It will help you time your buys and sells correctly. If you've ever bought a share with strong fundamentals and watched yourself drop away into the red for no reason... it's because you timed it wrong. Understanding charts will help you to avoid this to a good extent.
MF, we will be on our way once the trading update arrives. It's overdue and could land any time now. My prediction was next week and I still think that's a strong possibility.
The TU should give us clarity, S and S against real patient samples, plus answers to many of the questions we have all been speculating on.
This is the final chance to buy at this level (assuming the TU isn't a disaster, which seems highly unlikely now).
Strange to see this drop back to level, but here's my take on why.
This has been a two horse race in terms of who's likely to get Government orders.
Avacta/BBI/Abingdon
Mologic/ODX
But of course, Mologic are not listed so to back that horse the best you could do was buy ODX.
It now seems that Avacta and Mologic are the same test - who knows why - maybe both were struggling and working together they could solve each other's problems.
Regardless, the point is that things have now changed and you're better off holding Avacta (assuming it is indeed their test, which seems likely). Why invest into ODX who's limitation is what they alone can reasonably manufacture, when you can invest in Avacta who's limitation is the number of manufacturers across the globe they can bring on board to manufacturer their test.
Is there an upside in ODX, yes. Is the upside in ODX fairly guaranteed - also yes.
BUT, is the upside in ODX anywhere near the upside in AVCT? In my opinion no - we are now comparing apples with oranges now.
It seems ODX is now just a manufacturer for AVCT, so why not just buy shares there instead?
ODX spiked at open and fell back. AVCT was actually 1.5% down when I first looked this morning just after market open.
What does that tell you has probably happened? ODX holders were selling out, and probably putting their money into AVCT instead.
None of this makes ODX a bad investment by any means, still stand to do better than most blue chip stocks etc! But honestly, the two shares are no longer comparable. Avacta are due to release a trading update at any moment soon and it's likely to include the S&S with real patient samples. The train will then be leaving the station. Of course, that's good for ODX too if they're going to be making it - assuming all the dots are being joined correctly and all of the above is actually true.
Just to finish this post - I've seen numerous posts on this board about Avacta not having a test and having not reached 'design freeze.' These posters are so clueless and poorly researched it's almost unbelievable.
Part 2:
Logic and reason therefore suggest that either Tech Transfer has been completed, or is simply not applicable as BBI are both designer and primary manufacturer. Of course, there may need to be a TT to Abbingdon if that hasn’t already happened.
Therefore, the next LFT news we will be told is the S&S against real patient samples. At that time, even if we aren’t going to market immediately, this share is largely de-risked and you can sleep better at night. The market for LFTs isn’t going anywhere any time soon.
Avacta have always issued their trading updates in January, it’s very clear this is delayed. In my opinion, it’s highly like to be for one very simple reason – a trading update which does not provide clarity on the LFT (on which the market is focussed) will lead to negative speculation and push the share price down.
I strongly believe, in fact I’m pretty much certain, that when the trading update is released it WILL include the S&S against real patient samples, full clarity on the position and also the timeline to market.
In my opinion, if Avacta had these figures available, they would’ve issued the trading update… almost immediately, save for maybe a few days in between to review them before issuing RNS.
I won’t be checking for news next week and that’s also why I’ve not been on this board and posting anything. There’s nothing to know. I’ll start checking again every morning week after next.
Don’t wind yourselves up everyday when there’s no news. Ignore the bashers when they turn up. I’m confident the trading update will tell you everything we all want to know!
End.
Part1:
There's a lot of speculation on this board and for good reason. Here's my view on what is going on, some is fact and some is opinion based on fact. Make your own investment decisions, this is only my view.
23rd November RNS:
“The performance of the test with clinical samples will now be evaluated as a precursor to a much larger clinical study with COVID-19 patients of known viral load to determine the clinical sensitivity of the test. In parallel BBI Solutions is working to finalise and validate the manufacturing process so that the Group can carry out a full clinical validation on the final product to support the regulatory approval process. “
Then…
In the late December Director's Talk grilling, Al said "As we go into the Christmas period, I am very happy indeed with the performance of the test."
Furthermore, in the same interview he said "We are now moving into clinical testing in parallel with manufacturing scale up. We know that we have a very good test as far as laboratory samples are concerned and we are now in a position to see how that translates into real patient samples and if all goes well we will have a clear line of sight to full clinical validation and CE marking for professional use."
So to summarise, what that means is at the time of the December interview Al knew our LFT was performing extremely well against laboratory spiked samples and this step had most likely been completed. Since late December, our LFT has been in clinical testing.
Continued...
It's interesting to see the article mention Mologic/Omega and then Avacta/BBI/Abingdon.
This is what we've always believed but we've not heard about Abingdon for some time - so this is good news. Much better to have BBI and Abingdon on board with Avacta than to have Omega Diagnostics, even though they've bought more machines and an extra garden shed.
Just on quantity produced, this should make the Avacta AffiDX the primary UK lateral flow test.
The article says what we *believed* to be the case but didn't know for certain. Omega Diagnostics are posting about the article on Twitter... I can't imagine they would be actively pushing it if it contained inaccurate or misleading information.
Yes Ray we've got a test and it will be available in the coming weeks. It's called AffiDX
And I'm not sure that 7.3mil for a tie up working with Daewoong could quite be called "smoke and mirrors."
AVCT is up on it's AffyXell RNS, not testing.
If it were conclusive the share price wouldn't be at this level!
Yeah maybe Surescreen might have an AN test. But if they were close to having an AN test, why would they have continued on with designing and manufacturing a nasopharyngeal test knowing it would be immediately superseded and largely obsolete. That would be a strange waste of money and resources which could be deployed elsewhere.
I'm not saying it's impossible, but that wouldn't make sense to me.