Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
If BBI have redesigned the test and made it a more standard device using their own components, with Affimer reagents from Avacta, perhaps we will see this come to market much faster than we expect? Should we still even be waiting for a tech transfer RNS? Perhaps this is there already.
("A highly scalable test device using readily available components and routine manufacturing processes has now been shown to have a sensitivity for coronavirus spike protein in laboratory samples")
Afamaman, good observation there. Tech transfer must be extremely close and I think we'll see a lot of sellers becoming buyers again very soon.
Just a thought and possibly talking complete rubbish here, but it's possible that today's RNS and video were with a primary purpose to reset expectations onto swab and away from saliva. Can you imagine if the TT RNS had arrived and it was for a swab test that we didn't know about. What a mess that would've been! At least this way the sellers who aren't happy will clear, leaving holders whos expectations are set correctly.
Lots of low post count idiots coming out of the woodwork today.
Defnitely £2 by close Sagetrade! In all seriousness though, once the sentiment pendulum swings back the other way (like it did last week), we will, IMO, almost certainly have another bull run to test the 105 EMA again. This is still somewhat depressing as even if it holds it will leave us 30 to 40p away from where we were pre vaccine drop, but it's better than a quid!
Todays price drop is nothing to do with "MM's playing games" as people like to say. It makes it almost a complete certainty that neither of the "big one" RNS are going to land... I'm referring to BAMS and more importantly the LFT. This means you can fairly safely sell your shares and sit on the sidelines for at least a few days without needing to worry too much about missing out. You'll probably buy back cheaper. Worst case you may lose a few% dependings on the shares daily movements, but you're unlikely to get a big rise.
Furthermore, because those hoping for a nice trade on a big rise will also sell out.
The thing is though, they'll probably all be back, plus more, soon. Assuming no negative left field news lands (like eating brussel sprouts cures the rona or something like that), this RNS has provided the confirmation everybody wanted that everything is fine and nothing disastrous has happened.
Here's my highlights from the RNS:
1. We now have ANOTHER type of test in a nasal swab LFT, in addition to saliva. This derisks us significantly IMO as even a 50% failure rate becomes acceptable. We know from Innova that even though swabbing isn't ideal, the tests are still being mopped up.
2. "A highly scalable test device using readily available components and routine manufacturing processes has now been shown to have a sensitivity for coronavirus spike protein in laboratory samples better than 300 pg/ml which is in the range expected for spike protein in clinical samples."
I like the use of the word 'better'... so it works and exceeds the sensitivity requirement. We already know Affimers are specific so that's two boxes ticked.
3. Here's something I don't like at face value:
"In parallel BBI Solutions is working to finalise and validate the manufacturing process so that the Group can carry out a full clinical validation on the final product to support the regulatory approval process."
However, it also says "The performance of the test with clinical samples will now be evaluated as a precursor to a much larger clinical study" ... which would indicate to me that tech transfer must be imminent.
I cannot see that any type of preliminary clinical evaluation would have started if the test wasn't very close to the finished article. That wouldn't make sense. To my mind, this also says the test(s) will be as close to perfect as they can be. Sir Al has already told us he won't push risk down the line from TT. Clearly they already have a test which works and is extremely close to the final product as they're starting to evaluate it, so anything happening now must be finessing it.
Finally.... "Furthermore, we remain on track to submit the UK regulatory application, or CTA, for AVA6000 pro-doxorubicin before the end of the year to allow first-in-human trials of the pre|CISIONTM chemotherapy platform at several clinical trial sites in the UK early in 2021."
It's the 23rd November today...
I'm in ODX at a cheap price to catch the rise which will likely happen there soon enough. It's absolutely not a bad share imo. The problem is with the odx board is they think it's a serious multibagger which is just don't see happening. I would be surprised to see it break 150 ish. Beyond 2 and I would be shocked. Good returns from its current level with limited downside risk.
I agree with merchantbanker to be honest. The share price was consolodating above a quid and was not moving upwards. The rerate was always going to happen, but it could equally have fallen well below a quid, creating the opposite of what we saw this afternoon. Those who were thinking of taking a position and trying to time their entry probably rushed to buy in. There's not much incentive to sell at this level and below as the risk/reward is very good (IMO), so the price had to move upwards.
I don't think there's any increased likeliness of an RNS tomorrow (as keen as I would be for that). It's more likely that no RNS at 7am will result in 'sell on the bell' and down we go again. However, if we do drop I think we will maintain a higher level than before, probably in the 115p ish range.
As I've posted before, we are exactly in the time window for completion of tech transfer of the LFT so that is due. All I'm saying is I don't think the share price rise has any meaning to it.
Hi Global
I see this board is having to suffer you today. Hope your " buy high, sell low" strategy is still working out well.
Welcome GAZ85, great first post and I hope you stop lurking and continue to contribute! You are exactly correct, the logistics even in the UK are a huge undertaking. Even more so in countries where the populations are more sparse and their infrastructure not so good... even if they can afford it. Testing will surely have to remain in these countries.
In addition to the above, there's still these elephants in the room too:
-How strong will the uptake be? I'm not anti-vax by any means, but I fail to understand how any pharma company can delcare their vaccine safe and clear of any longer term side effects at this time or any time soon. They can test vaccines on as many people as they like, but they do not have time machines and can't confirm it will not cause any future chronic autoimmune problems (as my research indicates this seems to be the main risk associated with this type of vaccine). Lets also take into consideration liability exemption such as with AZ ( shorturl.at/atwHS ) Scary stuff IMO.
- A continuation of the above, how do you convince the majority of a population to have a rushed vaccine for something which most people are not at any significant risk from. If you can't do this, you need to vaccinate those who are most vulnerable... but will the vaccine be as effacacious in this group and will it be safe to give it to some of these people in the first instance?
- How long will protection last? If boosters are required, this will compound the logistics issue.
- Does the vaccine stop you becoming infectious, or does it just stop you from being symptomatic?
"The analysis was based on the first 95 to develop Covid-19 symptoms.
Only five of the Covid cases were in people given the vaccine, 90 were in those given the dummy treatment. The company says the vaccine is protecting 94.5%."
Mike279, that is correct. Siginificant NCYT director buyer (£500k ish).
We want to see NCYT, SNG and ODX doing well. We need a change in sentiment and PI confidence in these covid shares if we want to get back to previous levels without/before news.