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Here is a tweet to lift the spirits. Worth waiting a few extra months or so I think.
https://twitter.com/pashtoonkasi/status/1676194935152803840
He is a colorectal cancer specialist at the Mayo by the way, not some saddo in a basement in Pinner. (with apologies to anyone who resides in Pinner of course)
Quite a few on here talk about 'FAP being saturated' - given that FAP is not extinguished by cleaving a molecule of AVA6000, but can just go on and on ad infinitum, this is not a thing. Ignore any post that mentions it.
I have know for a couple of years now that they have immensely valuable tech, that they would be foolish to rush, and that they are chronically under resourced. The resource side of things is starting to be adressed, but they are still far from out of the woods. The current game of steadily building the IP until such time as it can leverage huge investment continues. How long will it take ? I really don't know. I would say I don't care, but of course I'd like it to be tomorrow, but I am but a tiny fish in this big sea, and I just have to ride the waves where they take me.
I agree Ginge. The timetable has not gone out to years away from commercialisation at all. The pace of drug development is slow, but that should not be news to anyone, Avacta are in fact doing pretty well on the tiny resources available to them. 2 years for a first in human safelty study is by no means way behind the pack, and they are working now on a drug highly likey to get accellerated approval of some sort, and highky likely to deliver that in a pivotal P2, knocking several years off the normal schedule. As the Chaiman said at the meeting this week, developing a novel medicine is one of the hardest of all human endeavours, Avacta may end up with a hatful of them. The early crystalisation of this investment will come from the company being bought out, it is not what they want, obviously, but the assets they have are such a prize it remains the most likely course, and it could happen at any time. If you want steady returns from a drug company go buy some AZ shares.
A really fabulous meeting. The science is delivering all that we could have hoped, there is little doubt that 6K is on its way to being a multi billion dollar drug, and no it will not take 7 years. As always the real value was in the offline conversations. The Avacta folk were there in numbers and were totally available for questions, and I did not once sense that they were being anything less than totally candid. The negative comments from the usual gang are not unxpected, but are so wide of the mark I am a bit taken aback. Anyone who thinks for example that AS is happy with the SP at current levels is fooling themselves. Elliot was almost jumping up and down with excitement describing Affyexcell to me. This is a stock to hold onto with a vice like grip, I think it will exceed all our expectations.
There must be something in the C5 data that is changing their minds. There is a hint at C4 that the dose response is not linear, maybe it has been confirmed clearly. If so there could be very significant benefits in going higher, moving from long term maintenance dosing to higher levels promising reversal. The purpose and design of the trial is to push the boundaries and see what you will find - well it seems to be doing its job. Exciting times. I think we are entering uncharted waters here.
LLP - "Someone will know who gets AVA6000 and who gets Dox.". It is an open trial, randomised not blinded. Everyone knows what arm they are on.
I'm not being rude here, but a lot of folk heaviliy invested, or at least regularly posting, seem to have little basic knowledge of how the industry works.
I think the dox arm is there for two reasons. Firstly to provide biopsy data on the comparative levels of dox in tumors. This is a slippery bit of data which will be fundamental to the design of future trials. Secondly it moves the trial one small step closer to statistical proof of efficacy. Without a comparator arm any claim is weakened.
And regarding the ethics of giving patients dox rather than 6K, dox is the Standard of Care treatment they would be receiving outside the trial, and 6K is an unproven experimental medicine. No ethical problem whatsoever.
They volunteer for the trial and are then randomised to one of the three arms. They don't get to choose, neither do the doctors. If they could that would introduce bias into the trial. The whole point of the dox arm is to have a comparison from the very same patient pool the 6K is given to. Hence this is randomised, but not blinded.