Member Info for Hamz74

The quote came from the second half 2022 Bowleven results, released March 20 2023. You can read the full report on the Bowleven website.

Https://www.africa-energy.com/news-centre/article/cameroon-perenco-signs-rio-del-rey-production-deal-eyes-new-age

1st sentence : Paris-based independent Perenco has signed a production-sharing contract (PSC) for the offshore Rio del Rey Basin and says it expects progress on approval of its acquisition of New Age’s interest in the Etinde gas field project.

(I did not pay to read the rest of the article behind the paywall. Does anyone have a subscription to African Energy ?)

The FID payment would actually be USD 25 million, from either New Age and Lukoil, or Perenco and Lukoil if the Perenco deal goes through.

The annual report continues to indicate a valuation of around USD 150 million for Etinde, which can go up and down with inputs such as oil and gas prices and discoun rates. USD 150 million would work out at about 50p per share.

The staff have temporarily gone part time this year while waiting for the Perenco deal to go through and waiting to hear Perenco set out its plans for development.

Yes the FID (Final Investment Decision) on Etinde keeps getting delayed. The great hope now is that Perenco will be a "game changer" . If Perenco completes the New Age deal it would surely seem logical for Perenco to buy Bowleven as well? Why would that not make sense?

Perenco seem quite active on the PR front recently https://worldoil.com/news/2023/6/29/perenco-completes-south-kole-marine-development-offshore-cameroon/

This release quotes the Head of Perenco Cameroon as mentioning "satellite projects" in the context of Rio de Rey. Presumably that includes Etinde, though no specific projects were mentioned.

https://www.brandiconimage.com/2023/06/cameroon-perenco-to-unlock.html

I extracted the quote:

Armel Simondin, CEO of Perenco Rio del Rey, said, “This new contract creates a solid foundation on which we will be able to build an ambitious program of modernizing our facilities, reducing emissions, exploring the area, seizing new opportunities, developing satellite projects and supporting the country in meeting its future energy challenges

Early in the morning, the spread sometimes appears to be 0.5 to 1.5, but I have not seen any trades go through at these levels. Has anyone else?

Perenco has extended its production sharing with SNH for Rio del Rey for 20 years

https://www.ogj.com/drilling-production/article/14295077/perenco-signs-new-20year-psc-for-rio-del-rey-basin-offshore-cameroon

This suggests that SNH is making some decisions, even if not on Etinde.

The article also mentions Perenco acquiring Etinde. What synergies might Etinde have with the rest of Rio del Rey?

Did you top up again Ripley? What price did you get this time- anywhere near the middle of the spread ie 1.05 ish?

This was disclosed in Bowleven's results. However, in Africa it is not unusual for these "long stop dates" to get extended several times, judging by eg Afrentra in Angola. If this has dragged on for 11 months, it is not clear to me that they are suddenly going to speed up in the June.

Cameroon state oil co SNH has bought 10% of an oil transport pipeline from Savannah

https://www.investegate.co.uk/savannah-energy-plc--save-/rns/spa-with-soci-t--nationale-des-hydrocarbures/202304200700068312W/

Not sure there is any direct read through to Bowleven, but perhaps a positive sign that they have some money to spend?

I saw it bid at 1p but not offered? Perhaps it might have been an uncrossing trade or something like that?

Is the price for your buy order secret or would you like to share it with us? Are you trying for 1.3p again?

The quoted offer, bid and mid can all jump around based on miniscule volumes, and it also seems they can change a lot without any reported trades ( though perhaps there is some delay in reporting trades that have changed the price ? ). In any case all of this is "all sound and fury, signifying nothing". Until there is clear news on Perenco, FID, any fundraising, etc the price volatility means nothing.

What is (D)? The sell side analyst forecast is 20p from Arden Partners, or another one? By the way that is a "risked" price target applying probabilities to various scenarios. The "unrisked" target is about 70p if you apply a 100% probability to success.

The house broker Shore Capital does not publish a price target because their policy is not to do so for house stocks.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/DELT/holding-s-in-company/15832963 I wonder which fund(s) and/or fund manager(s) might be involved here?

It is frustrating, but there may not be anything to report, until the Perenco deal formally closes, Perenco assumes operatorship and decides on a development plan. In the meantime, there may not be much if anything that Bowleven can do to expedite matters. The next scheduled update is the interim results, which were on March 30 last year.

The 18 page AGM presentation does not seem to discuss valuation. But on page 20 of the 88 page annual report linked below there is a discussion. I have copied and pasted a few sentences below. A valuation range of USD 140 to 230 million is about 34p to 56p per share on my calculations, given 335 million shares and GBP to USD of 1.23.

Our base line
financial modelling demonstrates that the
1 January 2023 value of Bowleven Group’s
20% share of the Etinde development
project ranges from $158 million to
over $200 million at $65 Brent, $6 LNG
export price and $3 domestic gas price
points. The value range increases to a
minimum value of over $230 million at
higher price points ($75 Brent, $8 LNG and $3 domestic gas). The valuation range
falls to $140 to $197 million at a higher
risk-weighted discount rate of 17%.

https://www.bowleven.com/system/files/uploads/financialdocs/annual-report-2022.pdf

If you will forgie my ignorance, can you explain the reference to Peter Donaldson please?

Did anyone attend the AGM? 18 page presentation now up on the site here https://www.bowleven.com/investor-relations/presentations