Member Info for Hamz74

Google Evraz ADR and you get this https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/evrzf. It has not made a new low versus the LSE price and right now is USD 1.60, about GBP 1.20.

Google Polymetal ADR and you get this: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aucoy. If there is one ADR per LSE listed share, as per the Polymetal website, then the ADR price today has bounced around between about USD 4 and USD 5.50, which is between about 3 and 4 quid. It was 4.76 when I lasted looked, which is over 3 quid.

JET, Deliveroo, Delivery Hero are all bouncing today, no obvious news. I wonder if the war will make some people stay at home and order takeaways rather than eating out? Has anyone seen anything specific?

With no operations in Russia or Ukraine, there should not be any direct fundamental impact. The problem is Just Eat is a high beta stock, which goes up and down faster than the wider equity market.

Google finance suggests that the US listing GRUB bounced 5% after hours. It would seem amazing if this sticks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Single trade tickets don't give the full story. What is the actual volume and how does it compare with average daily volumes? I can see volume of about 1 million shares on the LSE website. Thats about GBP 27 million or USD 36 million, around 0.5% of market cap. The Dutch listing in Amsterdam has traded about 1.6 million shares, which looks very close to average daily volumes of 1.68 million. It does not look like a huge selloff to me- but what data would you look at?

When I look at the share price on google finance, it closed down to 8.42, but after hours bounced 2% to 8.59, which would translate to a GBP price of 31.70, about a percent lower than the London close of 32.03. However, it does not always open near to the closing US price, it could also partly depend on the general overnight market moves in futures, and Asia.

Delivery Hero in Germany is down about 30% today right now (was 25% earlier today), but some people speculate that if Delivery Hero exits certain markets such as Spain (where it owns part of Glovo) it could even be good for Just Eat...because fewer players in a market increases margins. Just Eat is already profitable in Germany, Netherlands, Canada, where it is very dominant, and could move faster towards profitability if loss-making private equity and venture capital funded players exit various markets...

Yes the Bioko option would be lower cost and faster since the processing plant that would be used is already there. In terms of project net present values, that makes a big difference, as there is less cash outflow and the cash inflows come sooner. Timing is especially important when a sub-Saharan African energy project could be valued at an annual discount rate in the region of 15%.

This is possibly related to Delivery Hero reducing its stake and closing its collar position., which was done with Morgan Stanley. RNS here https://www.investegate.co.uk/just-eat-takeaway--jet-/rns/holding-s--in-company/202201170700085557Y/ This seems to be a complicated transaction with a few moving parts and also other regulatory filings on other exchanges, but big picture, if this "overhang" was weighing on the stock, its removal could be a positive factor.

Prosus, which previously made an offer for Just Eat's iFood stake, has raised USD 5.25 billion in debt. There is some social media speculation that this could be used to finance another offer for iFood. Just Eat results this week confirmed their intention to sell iFood at the right price.

The debt issue RNS is here: https://www.investegate.co.uk/prosus-nv--0a28-/rns/issue-of-debt/202201130930013494Y/

7000p seems to be pretty close to the lowest broker price target, even after many brokers have cut their price targets...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-13/food-delivery-giants-enter-new-year-jockeying-for-deals-and-turf?sref=ztUfOWRz

The juice is here: Just Eat’s management has indicated to some investors they’re open to the idea of a sale of Grubhub, one person familiar with the matter said, but advisers are also pitching a take-private deal or breakup, according to separate people. A Just Eat spokeswoman declined to comment.

This was rumoured last week here https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-16/cat-rock-capital-said-to-boost-stake-size-in-just-eat-takeway?sref=ztUfOWRz and then confirmed with an SEC regulatory filing https://whalewisdom.com/schedule13d/view/cat-rock-capital-management-lp-sc-13da-2021-12-21-grub. So Cat Rock have been steadily buying more over the past few months. I think they would put out a UK holdings RNS when and if they cross 7%, which is not far away.

No hard figures were given though estimates will vary anyway depending on which contractors are used, so you could get a range of quotes and indications. But the point is that the original plan is not now the optimal one. The new plan to export via Equatorial Guinea would involve lower costs for at least two reasons. There would be no need to reinject gas that was surplus to domestic demand in Cameroon, and there would be no need to build a brand new processing plant because the existing plant on EG would be used.

This year it was only possible to attend the AGM physically, and I did. Eli Chahin, Nicholas Brough FD, other Bowleven staff, a share registrar, and the two brokers – Arden and Shore Capital – were at the 2021 meeting, at the News Building in London. Thanks to one of the AGM resolutions. next year it will be possible to join the AGM either virtually or physically.

Domestic power generation projects in Cameroon are underway, asking for tenders with several Chinese parties interested, but it takes years to develop them, so exports via Equatorial Guinea are a faster option.

The hope is to get FID in 2022 and the government seems keen. Bowleven do 6 hour zoom calls attended by at least 10 people from SNH in Cameroon and several from New Age tuning in from different locations, as well as Lukoil. It can take a few meetings to agree on things. Most of the discussions continue remotely even if there are travel restrictions.

The main resource, condensate is very light oil, which is reasonably correlated to brent crude oil prices. The last valuation model was based on oil at 65 dollars. It is now higher than that, though part of the increase would be taken up by taxes. The fiscal regime allows for substantial cost recovery and then taxes the profitable revenues.

The valuation model, which is validated by the auditors EY, could be updated in 2022 if the Equatorial Guinea option materialises. Broker research does not currently include the Equatorial Guinea option, which should have lower costs than the previous plan that involved building a processing plant to split up the outputs, and reinjecting methane. The broker research reports should be updated when and if Equatorial Guinea becomes the official choice. Arden publish reports available through Research Tree, which include recommendations and price targets. Shore Capital is the house broker, but they do not publish recommendations or share price targets on Bowleven or any other house stocks as a matter of policy.

Eli Chahin’s share incentives determined back in 2017 kick in at a range of prices between 45p and 80p. He is sticking around - and so are the institutional shareholders, who have not sold

The bid seems to have slipped again. Is anyone going to the AGM tomorrow?

The fact that the Cameroon state oil company are now open minded about gas exports, does increase the potential upside once a deal can be agreed. Historically, their insistence on the gas being sold only domestically would have reduced the valuation.

Final liquidation distribution should be September 10, and I got a corporate action notification from Interactive investor. Cash has not yet arrived in my interactive investor or Hargreaves lansdowne accounts however. Does anyone else have a different experience?

The US ADRs closed at USD 4.80, which is GBP 3.46. Before anyone gets too excited, there are probably two ADRs per UK share, so that is equivalent to GBP 1.73. Still a small increase on the UK close of 1.71.