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Cameroon state oil co SNH has bought 10% of an oil transport pipeline from Savannah
https://www.investegate.co.uk/savannah-energy-plc--save-/rns/spa-with-soci-t--nationale-des-hydrocarbures/202304200700068312W/
Not sure there is any direct read through to Bowleven, but perhaps a positive sign that they have some money to spend?
The quoted offer, bid and mid can all jump around based on miniscule volumes, and it also seems they can change a lot without any reported trades ( though perhaps there is some delay in reporting trades that have changed the price ? ). In any case all of this is "all sound and fury, signifying nothing". Until there is clear news on Perenco, FID, any fundraising, etc the price volatility means nothing.
What is (D)? The sell side analyst forecast is 20p from Arden Partners, or another one? By the way that is a "risked" price target applying probabilities to various scenarios. The "unrisked" target is about 70p if you apply a 100% probability to success.
The house broker Shore Capital does not publish a price target because their policy is not to do so for house stocks.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/DELT/holding-s-in-company/15832963 I wonder which fund(s) and/or fund manager(s) might be involved here?
It is frustrating, but there may not be anything to report, until the Perenco deal formally closes, Perenco assumes operatorship and decides on a development plan. In the meantime, there may not be much if anything that Bowleven can do to expedite matters. The next scheduled update is the interim results, which were on March 30 last year.
The 18 page AGM presentation does not seem to discuss valuation. But on page 20 of the 88 page annual report linked below there is a discussion. I have copied and pasted a few sentences below. A valuation range of USD 140 to 230 million is about 34p to 56p per share on my calculations, given 335 million shares and GBP to USD of 1.23.
Our base line
financial modelling demonstrates that the
1 January 2023 value of Bowleven Group’s
20% share of the Etinde development
project ranges from $158 million to
over $200 million at $65 Brent, $6 LNG
export price and $3 domestic gas price
points. The value range increases to a
minimum value of over $230 million at
higher price points ($75 Brent, $8 LNG and $3 domestic gas). The valuation range
falls to $140 to $197 million at a higher
risk-weighted discount rate of 17%.
https://www.bowleven.com/system/files/uploads/financialdocs/annual-report-2022.pdf
Did anyone attend the AGM? 18 page presentation now up on the site here https://www.bowleven.com/investor-relations/presentations
Some sites display the last trade price, which can give a false impression of volatility given the spread. If the last trade was a buy, the share price appears to be up, and if it was a sell, the share price appears to be down. The mid price moves around less, but it can also jump around if either the bid or the offer move up or down, even if there have been no trades. In any case I would say volumes are so low it is not worth long term investors worrying about daily moves.
Its in London, near London Bridge station. There is no virtual attendance option. Can anyone make it there in person this year? I went last year, for the first time, but cannot make it this year. You probably need to send a message request to your broker that holds the shares.
These price monitoring RNS are always a mystery to me, as I do not see a change in the quoted bid offer spread or the actual prices reported on trades. Maybe they relate to it being in periodic auction call right now? Does anyone have any insight?
Since both companies are private, I would think a disclosure of the consideration is pretty unlikely. What circumstances do you expect might lead to that? The Bowleven valuation of Etinde is validated by auditor EY. The question is whether some special accounting rule might force them to supercede this with an "arms length" valuation - but even then could New Age or Perenco be compelled to make a disclosure?
I would agree. Next week the 30 day pre-emption period for Lukoil and Bowleven expires, so we might perhaps get another statement saying its 100% official and finalised etc?
It was not quite 7.5 billion. I understand it was 4.6 billion of shares issued by Just Eat, and the other 2.9 billion or so was "goodwill" - basically an accounting trick. Even so a drop from 4.6 billion to 1 billion is still huge.
Such as this one in the Congo, which like Cameroon, is French-speaking.
https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/article/14213066/perenco-acquires-all-shares-in-d-r-congo-block
In theory, Bowleven or Lukoil have pre-emption rights for 30 days from June 7. I wonder if they will wait until the end of the period, or say its a done deal earlier if there is no interest from either of them? I doubt if Lukoil, currently at 37.5%, would want to go over 50% for fear of potential complications if it ever became sanctioned.