Member Info for Hamilton1899

Roger65,

Its what the company is writting in the RNS today:

"In the event that the Conditional Placing and the Retail Offer do not complete the Company's cash runway is very limited, and it is highly likely that the Company would in the coming weeks be required to take steps in order to protect the interests of, inter alia, creditors of the Company, with these actions likely materially impacting shareholder value. Further, in such circumstances the Company believes it is likely that key members of staff may seek alternative employment given the significant uncertainty over the Company's future and the Company's ability to make new hires into the business will also be significantly hampered. The Company's standing with its suppliers, collaborators and customers is also likely to be materially impacted negatively;"

This is eventually going in two ways:

1. Vote pass, stock goes back to 0.2p due to the wall of new shares

2. Vote fails, company will soon be insolvent stock goes to zero.

Great idea to vote down the resolution on the upcoming GM. The company will be insolvent in a month time and shareholders will get nothing. Great plan!

I would be careful getting to excitied by todays contract. Its worth £55m year, while the group is already doing £2.5bn in annual revenue, so it docent change much. Yes its always a positive to win contract but stay realistic.

The company needs to do something about the balance sheet, with the collapsing bond price.

With the TBN closing share price today each FOG share is worth 16.1p. Very big discount for deal which is very likely to complete in 3 months time.

In the interim report they already reported that "Pediatric expansion of the Phase I trial cleared by FDA following protocol amendment." Bit of old news recyling today.

I like the Tamboran deal, but I’m getting more and more the sense that this deal was created in a bit of a hurry. Possible to avoid other bidders coming in for FOG. If another bidder for FOG would have emerged before Tamboran bid was presented and offered a cash deal with 30-50% premium, it would have been hard for Tamboran to match a similar bid and justify it to its own shareholders. One way to avoid that is to bid for FOG before any outsider has a chance to come to the table.

There are some real indications that this deal was prepared in a hurry. In a normal bid circumstances, circular and proxy statements are finalized or very close to being finalized when the deal is presented. In this situation this documentation is being prepared during October and filed at earliest end of October, according to the Tamboran deal investor presentation.

Falcon primary listing is in London, in 99% of the cases when a LSE listed corp receive a bid the Takeover Panel is informed the same day as the bid is presented, in this case there doesn’t seem to be any engagement with the Takeover Panel yet.

The stock is under attack and the ALRT AI stystem is not working

Nothing about ALRT tech, this guy is just a old soldier

This interview didn’t go as the company had hoped for.

Marshall "we got the be very careful of using AI"

I think the Marshall missed the memo that he is here to ramp AI and ALRT.

The market is finally starting to get that this is great deal and that the FOG stock is on big discount to the value of the TBN consideration.

Most UK platforms can trade TBN US, if not they can easily be added. IG added TBN US yesterday.

I think the rational is pretty simple for this deal:

1) If Tamboran and Falcon mergethey get in better negotiation position when they are doing a farm-out to a major or if they would consider selling out completely to a major. With one combined company they are leaving less alterative for potential partner.

2) Both companies are already controlled by Bryan Sheffield / Sheffield Holdings (Tamboran 18% and Falcon 10.5% respectively). It obviously makes more sense for Sheffield to merge the corps.

3) There will clearly be synergies as both companies are focused on one single play. FOG board will be gone after the deal and I think a lot of admin staff and other resources can be minimized after the deal.

4) Falcon would need to raise new cash rather soon if the deal wouldn’t happen, that is being resolved with the merger. Going forward access to funding will be easier with a bigger entity.

5) This deal will fix the problem of having Viktor Vekselberg as Falcon largest shareholder. He haven’t had any formal influence over the corp since he cant vote with his shares. But I’m sure several different potential partners has though that its been an issue that a sanctioned Russian oligarch is the largest shareholder. He will be gone by doing this deal as he is getting $23.7m cash payment for his shares.

With TBN trading around $28.5 currently the implied value for the FOG shares is 14.5p, that is a lot of upside from the current share price. I think this deal is very likely to go happen, so buying FOG shares now is a very cheap way to get into the new merged company. The next step is TBN (newcorp) farm-out which is expected over the coming months, most realistically after the deal has closed. This farm-out should be very good news for the new company and the current FOG shareholders.

There are always US law firms trying to make case that a merger or acquisition is unfair. Reading on Hotcopper, I think it seem like the ASX retailholders are pretty pleased with the deal.

Good luck trying to stop this deal. Its supported by larger shareholders and Lamesa cant vote. The company is tight on cash and if the deal is not voted throw the corp will have to raise cash at a big discount to the current share price.

Money in the bank

Basically no progress on partnering and licensces deal.

I think its likely that we should see some real progress on partnering and/or licencing in tomorrow update.

Always the same with Chariot more jam tomorrow and will run out of cash by the end of the year.