Member Info for haggismchaggis1

athansius,

Where do you think the analyst gets the share price from??

The analyst works out the MCap valuation, then, for the market, they divide it by the number of shares in issue to give the share price. When they put out a not with a share price that also means the MCap if you multiply it by the number of shares in issue, it's the same thing.

It never got anywhere near it because the projects failed one by one. the market was waiting for the projects to complete and be successful. If the projects had been successful AFC would already have multiple SuperGreen Power Stations and would be over £10 per share by now, so it was not wildly optimistic at all.

Thanks go to Skinny on ADVFN BB.

https://www.h2-view.com/story/everything-we-know-about-afc-energys-involvement-in-extreme-e/

All I will say about broker notes is that is their day job, they have to pass loads of exams to become certified as analysts, they spend all day doing analysis of companies, the analysis is structured, it always takes risk and competitors into account, often compares a company with it's peers, plus allows for many other factors, it is not numbers plucked from the air, it's calculated.

athansius,

It's not rubbish at all. I remember it well. I also remember it was based on B9 Coal doing gasification of coal including UCG (underground gasification), Waste2Tricity huge gasification of waste projects, multiple SuperGreen power stations. £Bn opportunities. AND at the time AFC had way less shares in issue, so you'll probably find the MCap based on his note at the time would actually be lower than the MCap at 191p today.

It was conservative at the time, the fact those projects failed was no fault of AFC, and at the time of writing the note all the projects were progressing very nicely.

Pandy, it's the price the company is worth TODAY.

The broker valuation of £1,291m only puts AFC above PPS, it still leaves it much lower than those above it.

MCap's 31 January vs the close on 12 January. In MCap ascending order.

AFC Energy
MCap £412m (down £95m)
£2.85m Loss

Proton Power Systems
MCap £768m (up £292m)
£6.4m Loss

Powercell Sweden AB
MCap £1.72Bn (same)
£6.73m Loss

Ceres Power
MCap £2,283m (down £110m)
£7.27m Loss

ITM Power
MCap £3,029m (down £82m)
£29.5m Loss

Nel ASA
MCap £3.69Bn (down £305m)
£21.5m Loss (first 9 months of 2020)

Bloom Energy
MCap £4.23Bn (down £103m)
£145m Loss (first 9 months of 2020)

FuelCell Energy
MCap £4.88Bm (up £394m)
£77.1m Loss (first 9 months of 2020)

Ballard Power
£7.01Bn (down £90m
£35.55m Loss (first 9 months of 2020)

Plug Power
MCap £22.92Bn (up £312m)
£75.9m Loss (first 9 months of 2020)

athansius,

Broker notes for AFC have always been conservative and this one is no less conservative, clearly stating that there is a lot of potential upside not included (which could have been), and that the 191p is fair value now, not a target for the future.

I think half of it was shorting, in fact on the opening drop last Thursday a big shorting attack, plus some profit taking and some trying to trade it by selling out to buy back lower.

Several got caught with their trousers down by 191p valuation and subsequent rise today.

I don't feel sorry for any sellers, why should I? They made their choice to sell, to try and trade, or to set a stop loss, if they are kicking themselves it's their own fault for making those decisions, nobody else.

I hope we get stronger shareholders in, people that can ignore the daily ups and downs and concentrate on the price at least a year from now, as that will reduce the volatility for everyone, and rises will stick.

It's OK, we have Ammonia, much cheaper, already mass produced globally (for fertilizer) and we can use it but other fuel cell companies can't unless they purify the Hydrogen from it to 99.999% purity, which makes it a lot more expensive for them.

Compare MCap vs cash burn. AFC significantly undervalued before it has really got the sales flowing in, which is not far away.

MCap's on 31 January vs the close on 12 January. In MCap ascending order.

AFC Energy
MCap £412m (down £95m)
£2.85m Loss

Proton Power Systems
MCap £768m (up £292m)
£6.4m Loss

Powercell Sweden AB
MCap £1.72Bn (same)
£6.73m Loss

Ceres Power
MCap £2,283m (down £110m)
£7.27m Loss

ITM Power
MCap £3,029m (down £82m)
£29.5m Loss

Nel ASA
MCap £3.69Bn (down £305m)
£21.5m Loss (first 9 months of 2020)

Bloom Energy
MCap £4.23Bn (down £103m)
£145m Loss (first 9 months of 2020)

FuelCell Energy
MCap £4.88Bm (up £394m)
£77.1m Loss (first 9 months of 2020)

Ballard Power
£7.01Bn (down £90m
£35.55m Loss (first 9 months of 2020)

Plug Power
MCap £22.92Bn (up £312m)
£75.9m Loss (first 9 months of 2020)

Prior to this 191p fair value, a share price of £1 was seen as a potential sticking point, but with fair value being a minimum value for the stock as is, £1 should not be a sticking point, as everyone should be aiming for a lot higher price.

Schroders, if they are still up for selling these cheap, will easily be cleared out completely.

Thanks Zeus for confirming my £1Bn+ valuation posted on Monday :-)

haggismchaggis1
Sun 20:05

More than that. PPS is £768m with double the loss of AFC.

AFC have ABB, Ricardo, Extreme E, Julich, and Acciona. AFC has to be worth at least £1Bn right now IMVHO, compared to the other peers.

AFC have had the Fuel Cell signed off as achieving all of the metrics required, not just for off-grid power generation but also in the dessert, arctic or high humidity jungle.

AFourleafClover

"do you think it's as simple as "our cell with their charger"

ABB and AFC are working on the hardware and software that links the FC and charger. Think of two small communication and control circuits, one in the charger and one in the FC. These would be easy to add to existing ABB rapid chargers as an upgrade package to allow use of the FC. It's also likely they will be created so they can be used across different ABB chargers.

AFourleafClover,

I'm not saying that we are supplying chargers 'yet', as AFC + ABB haven't launched it yet. But putting 2+2 together the Oman buyer of ABB High-Power EV chargers could be thinking ahead for that.

We know the AFC FC is now validated for use in the Sahara, as would anyone reading the news or watching the AFC/Extreme E videos, including perhaps the buyer from Oman, or even just talking to his ABB salesman.

Either way, Oman is sure to have a lot of places where an AFC + ABB FC EV Rapid Charger could be used. The guy from Oman is going for Rapid Chargers, so it definitely fits the bill.

And they will have a local supply of Ammonia.
https://www.denso.net/development-of-salalah-ammonia-plant/

MHD strengthens electric vehicle initiative with high power charging stations from ABB
Tuesday 02/February/2021

Mohsin Haider Darwish signed a contract with ABB, a pioneering technology leader focused in digital industries, for the supply of High-Power electric vehicle (EV) chargers that will be installed across Oman.

https://timesofoman.com/article/mhd-strengthens-electric-vehicle-initiative-with-high-power-charging-stations-from-abb

And only just prior to that was this news:

"Engineered to withstand some of the world’s harshest environmental conditions, AFC Energy’s specially modified fuel cell system will power vehicles across five continents in Extreme E’s first season, including race locations in the Arctic, Amazon Rainforest, ………. SAHARA DESERT ………. and the heights of Tierra del Fuego in Argentina.

BB2,

B9 coal was a HW project along with W2T.

"In 2006 Richard Budge restarted the colliery, and started planning for a carbon capture and storage (CCS) coal burning powerstation at the site, via company Powerfuel. Russian coal company Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU) acquired a 51% stake in Powerfuel.[8] Coal production at the pit was restarted, producing coal in 2007;[9] with production made economically viable through a doubling in the price of coal between 2004 and 2008.[10] The CCS project was approved to receive £180 million of EU funding in 2009.[11] The CCS project failed to obtain enough investment to proceed. In 2010 Powerfuel entered administration, in part due to coal production problems."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatfield_Colliery

Bring back the SuperGreen Power Station I say, it's a great idea, especially with loads of Ammonia available. Using the solid Fuel Cell it would be much easier to build and operate too.

Page 5
http://www.afcenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/AFC_Annual-report-2009.pdf

And this
https://processengineering.co.uk/article/2005285/mmm

I have mine as certificates safely stored in my wall safe. No shorters can touch mine.

Aiming to extend its sporting product with a global audience, leading global sports news video provider SNTV has entered into a deal with the Extreme E electric off-road racing series.

For the last 24 years, SNTV has worked with federations, sports organisations and brands to provide sports video news and highlights to global broadcasters and digital publishers. SNTV has partnerships with some of the biggest sporting properties in the world including NBA, Bundesliga and Formula One. Its aim is to connect sports fans worldwide and it does this by distributing quality sports video content to 1200 global outlets across broadcast and digital in 115 territories worldwide.

https://www.rapidtvnews.com/2021020159827/sntv-gets-on-the-grid-with-extreme-e-racing.html