Member Info for gurun

Brokers almost always changes their pricetargets according to the development of the shareprice. They are many times afrid of having a pricetaerget to far away from the shareprice.

13-Jan-22 10:28:33 20.975 1,128,719 Buy* 20.90 21.00 236.75k O
13-Jan-22 10:16:48 20.975 500,000 Unknown* 20.90 21.05 104.88k O

Hopefully we will soon get our well deserved rally.

I feel comfortable with my stake in Enquest, despite the fact I know it is larger than all schoolbooks recomend. My plan is to hold everything until the 60 p party. Hopefully at that time Enquest starts with divends too. The potential size of dividend attracts me a lot. Even a modest start with 1 p per share becomes a significant amount of pounds when you have many shares.

Many times it can be frustrating to be a longterm holder of shares in Enquest.
Every time I get frustrated nowdays I calm down with this simple calculation.

Prodution in one week I estimate to 350000 barells.
Last time AB told us about the breakeven price for FCF he said it was 32 dollars per barell.
Now when production is lower and oilprice higher I estimate BE to be 45 dollars per barell.
For 2022, EnQuest has hedged a total of 7 MMbbls
using similar structures, with an average floor price of c.$61/bbl and an average ceiling price of c.$76/bbl. For 2023,
the Group has hedged a total of 2 MMbbls with an average floor price of c.$56/bbl and an average ceiling price of
c.$74/bbl.

If we get 75 dollars per barell we get 30 dollars per barell in positive FCF.

1 dollar= 9,03 sek

1885924339 shares

50000*7*30*9,03/188592439=0,05 sek

1 p=0,1232sek

0,05/0,1232=0,40p

Every week we add value of 0,05 sek or 0,40 p!

That can be very encouraging to think of when the algos sell our stock.
If brent hold after the API tonight I think there is a chance for a very good day tomorrow. The MSE algo has sold about 2,2 million of shares in Stockholm this week. Maybe tomorrow they want to buy back. MSE buying 2 million of shares probably mean an improvement in shareprice of at least 1 p.

I go for 38 p. My prediction is based on that our enterpricevalue will stay around the same level like now.

John Winterman has been in the board since 7 september 2017. Not until yesterday he bought his first shares. The fact that he waited until now buying his first shares I interpreted like now finally it is time for Enquest to deliver good result. Buying shares very close to the silent period means that he probably know rather well how the update will be. If price of Brent will go on to be favourable our Enquestshare can start running.

My feeling yesterday that it could be an insiderbuy was correct. Even more positive it was not AB buying this time. When people from board invests own money it must be little more hard for AB go on maximize the negative information.

What is the restrictions for insiders to buy share in the LSE? Is there still a possibility that AB is a buyer today and that we will se operational update one month later?

Today is two new videos available on youtube with our friend Jeffrey Currie!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pT8HdhMQ4bA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Zc7_-rJ-mU

The lack of informationen is a good way to keep the shareprice low. As long as AB wants to accumulate more shares he will go on maximize the uncertainty in the market. Allways when forced to communicate, communicate in a way that hide everything positive in the texts and communicate evyrything negative as clear as possible. Nevertheless I am very optimistic about the future for Enquest. This year we will not see the decline in productionsfigures as last year. I also think the oilprice will be favourable. That day AB want i higher shareprice we will get that. Just to keep paithence and we longterm holders will all be greatly awarded.

I do not know if I am qualified to the contest. I am very interested in the development of Enquest. I think the shareprice will be 38 p in the end of this year.

Our share is extremely fragile and moves very fast with small capital. Barclays a couple ago buying 75000 shares. The MSE algoritm get trigged and buying 50000 shares and suddenly the shareprice is increasing about 2 percent. I am looking forward to that day when more longtermed buyers starting allocating shares. One possibility that also will work and when Enquest starts with buybacks of shares. I am pretty sure we will then see a more permenant increase in shareprice. So far the better traders just taking money from the algoritms.

Today Brent is really strong. Our shareprice should rise more today. Maybe because LSE is closed or investors wait investing until new year has passed?

Merry Christmas! Looking forward to 2022, the first year that the market will understand and see the potential in our share. With lower depth means reduced risk and higher enterpricevalue. If we can reduce depth with 500 million dollars the marcetcap can increase maybe 600 million dollars. That would mean a shareprice around 40 p or 5 sek. Some time during 2023 we can have the 60 p party ;)

Enquest is very good in communicate in a way that the reader must guess. If it is an update why not write in a way to minimize misunderstandings. Give information of how long time Kraken was only running in one train. How much production was lost and If it is running normal again write that in a way that everyone understand. It is The future that is relevant for the company and stockprice. The market hate uncertainty. Why always maximize uncertainty then? About the depth. If they count that in different way they must comminicate. Why stop writing the breakeven for free Cash flow?

When always communicate the way AB does he manage to get the market nervous. Actually my biggest worry about Enquest is that AB manage to buy all shares in the company far to cheap. Anyone know if it the sames rules in England as in Sweden that when someone get more than 90 percent of the shares it is possible to force rest of shareholders to sell their shares?

Kraken

During the ten months to end October 2021, average gross production was 31,977 Boepd, in line with expectations. An oil heater failure resulted in a short facility shutdown. The Group optimised production through single train operations until the heater repairs were completed.

When I read this yesterday my interpretation was that now both trains in Kraken works again. But I was not 100 % sure I interpreted the sensence correctly. The fact that Kraken now works perfectly again is new information in the update. The fact that procuction is reduced when only one of two trains in Kraken is no new information from yesterday update. Only one Cargo instead of two in 30 days means a lost production of around 1000 barells per day and explain why we have 45 k instead of 46 k. I am 100 percent sure that Enquest could have presented yesterday update in a much more optimistic way. I remember from september report about hedging. They presented the hedgeprice in a way that it looked worse than it was by using meanprice from low levels from beginning of year that was history.

That day AB think it is time for the SP to raise the will raise. As long as his approach is to make the market nervous The SP will stay on a low level. The best way to give a positive signal to the market is to start with buybacks and dividends. A small amount like 1 p per share and buyback of 1 million shares per week cost Enquest less than 50 million dollars.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/11/2/bp-says-global-oil-demand-has-passed-100-million-barrels-per-day

One large cap doubles their dividend, increases their share buyback, and commits 50% of FCF to returns in '22 and rallies 13%. Another fails to announce a special dividend or special issuer bid and falls 6%. The demands of shareholders (ie. the owners!) could not be any clearer.

The above from Eric Nutall and I think it is exactly The same problem we have.