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I totally agree that our debtlevel must be lower in the future. When balancesheet in a strong position we can take advantage of future possibilities in the market. I also think it is important to be friendly to the shareholders. The latest years Enquest has spend around 100 million dollars in interest expenses. One idea could be that the company go on spending 100 million dollars totally in interest expences, dividend and sharebuyback. Lets suppose that the interest expenses this year will be 70 million dollars. In that case Enquest spend 15 million dollars in dividend and 15 million dollars in sharebuybacks. Next year we have interest expenses of 40 million dollars, 30 million dollars dividend and 30 million dollars sharebuybacks.
About RNS Avanza own above or below 3 % of Enquest.
In Sweden we have three different types of accounts.
1) Aktie och Fondkonto
2) Investeringssparkonto (ISK)
3) Kapitalförsäkring
In number 1 and 2 your shares in a company is registrated under your own name.
When you owns shares in number 3 your shares that you own will not be registrated under your own name. All people that have this kind of account, kapitalförsäkring , in Avanza owns together around 3 % of all shares in Enquest. They are not registrated individual, they are alltogether registrated in the name of Avanza. Of this 57 million of shares probably at least 50 million of the shares not changing hands very often. There happens to be one or maybe a couple of swingtraders that trade the share. This or those swingtrader/traders change their holding. When they own maximum, maybe 5 million shares, Avanza alltogether own little more than 3 % and when they have sold out Avanza owns alltogether little less than 3 %. I have read many times people here discussing the Avanza registrated shares. I am 100 % sure that my explanation is the correct one.
Density= (141,5/(API+131,5)
Kraken API=13,7 gives
Density=141,5/(13,7+131,5)=0,9745 kg/liter
Density=Mass/Volume
Volume=Mass/Density=1000/0,9745=1026 liters
I barrel=159 liters
1026/159=6,45
1000 dollars per 1000 kg gives us
1000 /6,45=155 dollars per barrel
Today was like many days before a very good day for the company Enquest.
It is hard to understand why our shareprice is still around 25 p.
Logical arguments like the market thinks that this high prices in Brent will only last for a very short time or the market thinks that our production will have problems this year too could be an explanation of the weak interest in our stock.
I think the main reason that our stockprice is still low is that most parts of the market is not interested in our company. They do not use some hours to study our company. When only reading very fast they will only notice that we lost lots of production the two last years. We have negative net result and our dept compared to our marketvalue is very high.
Very few analysts are following our company and our boss AB has so far been very moderate about telling the market about the the potential of our company when Brent is above 100 dollars.
I think that the market want proofs before start buying our share.
Like in many other turnaround shares the turnaround takes long time, but when the market finally understand that the turnaround will be successful the shareprice can improve very fast.
I think the reasons why our stockprice not flying yet are all of the political correctness . Very few funds are allowed to buy stocks in energycompanys. Also many retailinvestors get influenced by this kind of thinking. Another reason is that many people think that there have to be something wrong with the company when the valuation is very low. This kind of thinking implies that that the risk in a stock can be lower when the stock gets more expensive. In my mind it is completely madness but I know that is how the market is working.
Hopefully OPEC today confirm that they stucks to their plan with an increase of 400000 barells per day.
If Brent price stays in the level right now I think we can break 3 kr today.
I wish all longtimeholders a good day!
There are a couple of swingtraders (AVA, SWB and SBN) that has taken money from the algos. The algos mainly trigged by price of brent and when other trades are made. The fact that the algos trigg each other making the stockprice to change fast in both direction. When Brent is rising the algos push the stockprice up. The swedish swingtraders from AVA, SWB and SBN sell to the algos. The when Brent loose some dollars the algos trigg each other and push the stockprice down again. The swingtraders from AVA, SWB and SBN can buy back their shares cheaper. Brent up again, the algos trigg each orther and the price up again. The swingtraders sell. This pattern has been for very long time in Enquest.
I am pretty sure that that main part of the trades by Avanza in Enquest is made of one or two swingtraders. The Avanzatrader beat the MSE algo almost every time. In friday MSE, MLEX and BBI sold around 1 million shares each. The main part was bougtht of Avanzatrader. Today Avanza sell the shares 15-20 öre more expensive to the algos.
The traders from Avanza (AVA), Swedbank (SWB) and Skandiabanken (SBN) are fighting with the algos from MSE and MLEX. Normally the swedes taking money from the algos. I am pretty sure the swedes are humans that outsmart the algos. Algos normally sell cheap when Brent down and buy more expensive when Brent up. Avanza Pension own around 3 percent of Enquest. When the trader from Avanza little short of stocks Avanza Pension owns little less the 3 percent and when trader have some more shares on the hand Avanza pension owns little more then 3 percent.
Interesting to see what will happen today. Spotprice of Brent is at the moment above 100 dollars again. The company Enquest benefits a lot every day we have prices of Brent in this level. I think there is a good chance that more and more investors understand that investing in energystocks like Enquest will be a good investment in the coming years. I say like our boss: The FCF will be fantastic. When AB told us that if I rembember correctly the price of Brent was around 45 dollars! Wish all in this board a good day and happy weekend!