Member Info for gurun

Krakenoil, I must admit that the SP makes me frustrated very often. Like yesterday I got the feeling that maybe today finally our shareprice will start improving. I have followed the stockmarket daily in more than 30 years. Since I got access to internet I watched the market many hours every day. When investing in turn around stocks many times the turn around takes longer time than you first is thinking. Many turn around stocks acting under the radar. It can be obviuos that the turn turn around will be successful, but when company is under the radar nothing happens with the stockprice. Suddenly when it is that obvious that even those with not so sharp eyes can see that the turn around will be successful the sharprice starts to improve. Very short after that the moment many people get interested in the company and the shareprice can improve several of hundreds percent in less than one year. We longtime holders must try to relax. Our payback time will come and when it will come we will all be greatly awarded.

Every day with oilprices in todays level is a good day for Enquest!
Hopefully we get information of the size of our net depth in end february 2022 in the report in March.
I think that when market understand the speed we take down our depth finally our shareprice will improve significantly.

If Brent stay in 95 dollars for three years we will be back in shareprice of 95 p.

Hope all of you are fine! Our share is still very fragile. For a longtime holder the most important that we can follow every day is the price of oil. Every day it stay in these levels around 90 dollars is a very good day for Enquest. It is one day closer to the day that the market suddently will understand our very low valuation. Every month Enquest reduce the depth of almost 2 p per share!

Some retailtraders own their shares in Avanza kapitalförsäkring. The amount of shares have been around 3 percent for a pretty long time. There is one or maybe a couple of person that swingtrade the Enquest share. They trade 1-4 million of shares. When they are little short of shares the total amount in Avanza kapitalförsäkring goes under 3 %.

I do not think that the market is rational. The market is like most of humans. They are not thinking themselves, mostly following the trends. Many people can easily understand what is the "correct" thinking and then do not reflect about " the correct" is correct or wrong. Our time will come and I am convincinced that long time holders will be greatly awarded.

Z.F.G.
Thanky you for sharing the answer from AB. Nice to hear a more optimistic tone in his answer. Also in the latest operational update I think AB sounded much more optimistic than he did during last years updates.

Papegoja,
MSE is algotrading. Over little longer time they sell the the same amount of shares as they buy. I follow the trading every day and I am pretty sure that the MSE algo loose money to swingtraders from AVA, SBN and SWB. The latest weeks Berenberg (BBB) started buying shares. They bought around 6 million shares. This 6 million shares made the MSE algo to sell more shares than it has been buying the latest weeks. If BBB go on buying probably one day the MSE algo will buy back many shares again and the sp will improve significantly.

From update 211118

Hedging
EnQuest has hedged a total of c.11 MMbbls for full year 2021 predominantly using costless collars, with an average
floor price of c.$59/bbl and an average ceiling price of c.$69/bbl, with c.2 MMbbls hedged with an average floor of
c.$60/bbl and ceiling price of c.$74/bbl for the remainder of 2021. For 2022, EnQuest has hedged a total of c.7 MMbbls
using similar structures, with an average floor price of c.$61/bbl and an average ceiling price of c.$76/bbl. For 2023,
the Group has hedged a total of c.2 MMbbls with an average floor price of c.$56/bbl and an average ceiling price of
c.$74/bbl.

From update 220203

EnQuest has hedged 8.6 MMbbls of oil, primarily using costless collars, with an average floor price of c.$63/bbl
and an average ceiling price of c.$78/bbl. In addition, for 2023, the Group has hedged a total of 3.5 MMbbls with
an average floor price of c.$57/bbl and an average ceiling of c.$77/bbl

From update in november to update in february Enquest took 1,6 MMbls new hedges for 2022. The average value of ceiling raised from 76 to 78 dollars. The implies that for the new hedges the ceiling is minimum 83 dollars. I have then counted that 76 is actually almost 76,5 and 78 is 77,5.

I personally hope that Enquest will hedge as few barrels as possible now because of the extreme backwardation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQSS4V5bUmE

Very relaxing to see and listen to Jeffrey Currie!

Relax, sentiments can suddenly change in our favour.

Good morning!

It very easy to get frustrated when stockprice is weak. I think it is nataral to beleive that the reason for a weak stockprice is that the underlying company has problems. Many times market gets nervous when stockprice is weak and that makes stockprice even weaker. This kind of behavour can last for long times. For people following the stockprice many times every day this long time can feel like a very long time. About Enquest we recently get an operational update. This time I think there were many positive things in the update.

* The net depth was 28 öre/2,2 p lower than the forecast from AB in november.
* The free cashflow 2021 was 1,90 kr/15,4 p.
* The production in january was 50810 Boepd.
* In Magnus the repairs to a compressor gear box failure which resulted in single train operations
during much of the fourth quarter 2021 were completed and both trains are now in operation.
* In Malaysia the new riser system and pipeline were commissioned in late January this year, ahead of plan, and production wells are all back onstream.

In Malaysia they fixed the problems in late January means that the productionnumbers in January not include full production from Malaysia.

Suddenly the sentiment will change. At the same time last year our stock gained 100 % in 4 weeks. Last year we had an unceartainty about the open offer, still the stockprice raised 100 %.
About the hedge I think it is okay. If Brentprice stay above the celingprice all year we will get average 78 dollars for 8,6 Boepd. Whith production in midrange we have still 8,7 Boepd unhedged this year. There is a good chance we end this year with an average price above 80 dollars.

Finally I want to wish all posters a good day!

I think that we can be satisfied with the hedges we have now. Around half of production we will get maximum 78 dollars. For the second half we will hopefylly get more. In latest update we get no information if some hedges were related to the Kraken oil. Hopefully there is no hedges of the oil from Kraken. Spotprices around 700 dollars per ton is more than 100 dollars per barell. If I remember correctly the price per ton shall be divided with little less than 7 to get the price per barell. Was it 6,74?

The same in Stockholm. Today price down 1,2 öre in the final call.

Encouraging to listen to Jeffrey Currie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQSS4V5bUmE

January2, I agree with you. I do not think that the hedge is a big problem. Everyday above the ceiling of 78 dollars is a very good day for us. Ok we loose money on the hedgeposition, but still have a massive FCF. Sentiment will change some day. When our share finally starts to run I am pretty sure it will run very fast.

I think that Barclays like many other brokers do not like to have a targetprice that is far away from the current shareprice. In Barclays update from 12 July 2021 they have an upside case with Brent 70 dollars and targetprice 56 p

There is no reason to give up now. That the stockprice is depressing does not imply that the company is bad.
Almost 400 M dollars in FCF last year is huge comparded to the marketcap that is just above 500 M dollars.
I think it is human to start thinking that when stockprice is very weak there must be some serius problems about the company.
Tonight is the third attempt for Brent to break 90 dollars. Hopefully we stay above 90 when Asian markets starts tomorrow. The lack of investments the latest years means that production declines in many places. I think there is a good chance that demand will stay above supply in the coming years. It will probably mean that Brent will be in the range 100-150 dollars. Only keep calm and wait for better times. We have seen it before that our share can improve fast when it starts running.

I have to say that this time I have no complains about the way AB communicate. In earlier updates I have had a feeling that he tried to hide everything that was positive and be very clear about the negative parts.
I think this update was good. I had forecasted production to be 43-50 k and it was 44-51 k.
In last update AB forecasted netdebt to be around the same level as last year. Net debt came in 58 M lower.
58 M is quite a lot of extra money. About 10 percent of the marcetcap extra in only 1,5 month.
There have been doubts if Magnus is working in both trains. The update confirms that Magnus is working in both trains.
AB gives us the information about the production in January. Almost 51 k I think is good.
The main reason our stockprice is not raising I think is that there are very few new longterm buyers. Most people that beleive in Enquest is already invested. As long as it is mostly a competition between swingtraders and algos we will not se our shareprice improve. I know very well from many years experience that the sentiment can be very depressing for many years and then suddenly change. One day we will all be greatly rewarded.

From January to June production was 46187.
From January to Oktober production was 44306.
That means from July to October production was (44306*10-46187*6)/4=41485
GE production 70 days in 2021 means 70/365*10556=2024
They forcast 45000 included GE that means without GE 45000-2024=42976
That means production in november and december is (42976*12-44306*10)/2=36326
Production in november and december included GE is 36326+10556=46884
For 2022 I make asumption that decline takes down production as much as new drilling and repairing raises production.
The central of interval is then around 46,5-47k and total interval can be 43-50 k.

43-50k is my forecast for production in 2022.